http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php en scippa@gmail.com Copyright 2009 2009-07-03T16:49:00-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/blue_jays_42_38_yankees_45_33_friday_july_3_105pm_game_chatter http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/blue_jays_42_38_yankees_45_33_friday_july_3_105pm_game_chatter#When:15:49:00Z Tor: B. Tallet (5-5, 4.47 ERA) NYY: A. Burnett (6-4, 3.93 ERA) Lineups: Toronto Blue Jays M. Scutaro, SS (.279/.380/.414) A. Hill, 2B (.301/.341/.504) A. Lind, DH (.315/.389/.556) S. Rolen, 3B (.333/.394/.494) L. Overbay, 1B (.264/.386/.492) V. Wells, CF (.248/.301/.388) A. Rios, RF (.260/.319/.417) D. Dellucci, LF (.275/.333/.350) R. Chavez, C (.271/.271/.371) New York Yankees D. Jeter, SS (.307/.381/.447) J. Damon, LF (.288/.364/.533) M. Teixeira, 1B (.274/.381/.559) A. Rodriguez, 3B (.235/.398/.506) R. Cano, 2B (.307/.340/.489) N. Swisher, RF (.240/.369/.492) H. Matsui, DH (.254/.350/.488) F. Cervelli, C (.257/.278/.329) B. Gardner, CF (.289/.367/.421) Whatever. Liveblog 2009-07-03T15:49:00-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/mariners_39_38_yankees_45_32_thursday_july_2_705pm_game_chatter http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/mariners_39_38_yankees_45_32_thursday_july_2_705pm_game_chatter#When:20:27:01Z SEA: Jason Vargas (26, LHP, 3-3, 3.79) vs. NYY: C.C. Sabathia (28, LHP, 7-4, 3.55) Lineups Seattle Mariners I. Suzuki, RF (.368/.400/.493) R. Branyan, 1B (.298/.394/.596) J. Lopez, 2B (.258/.288/.423) M. Sweeney, DH (.263/.309/.404) F. Gutierrez, CF (.278/.346/.409) K. Johjima, C (.250/.272/.380) R. Langerhans, LF - - - C. Woodward, 3B (.333/.400/.333) R. Cedeno, SS (.136/.212/.252) New York Yankees D. Jeter, SS (.307/.383/.449) J. Damon, LF (.292/.369/.541) M. Teixeira, 1B (.278/.386/.567) A. Rodriguez, 3B (.239/.401/.515) R. Cano, 2B (.300/.332/.481) N. Swisher, RF (.238/.371/.494) H. Matsui, DH (.248/.347/.466) M. Cabrera, CF (.287/.346/.454) F. Cervelli, C (.269/.290/.343) Whatever. Liveblog 2009-07-02T20:27:01-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/fangraphscom http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/fangraphscom#When:14:16:00Z Dave Allen at Fangraphs posted an article a couple days ago that looks at how the new outfield dimensions at the Stadium affect home runs.  It seems that the general consensus now is that wind has little to do with the increase in long balls.  Allen concludes that since the biggest increase in home runs coincides with the largest change in outfield fence dimensions, it is the fence that is responsible. I’m not totally sold since wind currents might still increase home runs to one part of the park.  Plus, without a full season of data, it is hard to make any conclusion just yet as to what is really responsible. But it’s still an interesting study.  Plus, there are some fun graphs for you to gaze upon. Statistics, Writers 2009-07-02T14:16:00-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankeescom_a_rod_puts_yanks_win_streak_at_seven http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankeescom_a_rod_puts_yanks_win_streak_at_seven#When:03:09:00Z NEW YORK—Like Mark Teixeira before him, Alex Rodriguez has gone from puzzlingly cold to exceptionally hot in a flash. And with him have gone the Yankees. In such a funk as they slogged through the Interleague portion of their schedule, the Yankees won their last two games in Atlanta and have been soaring since. They are now winning games—and quite a lot of them—with both efficiency and precision. The latest example came on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium, when Andy Pettitte thrived, Rodriguez hit a towering home run and the Yankees won their seventh straight game, this one a 4-2 decision over the Mariners. I love me a winning streak. Game Recap, vs. Mariners 2009-07-02T03:09:00-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/mariners_39_37_yankees_44_32_wednesday_july_1_2009_705pm_game_chatter http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/mariners_39_37_yankees_44_32_wednesday_july_1_2009_705pm_game_chatter#When:19:53:01Z SEA: Jarrod Washburn (34, LHP, 4-5, 3.22) vs. NYY: Andy Pettitte (37, LHP, 7-3, 4.38) Lineups Seattle Mariners I. Suzuki, RF (.373/.405/.500) R. Branyan, 1B (.303/.400/.606) J. Lopez, 2B (.259/.288/.422) K. Griffey Jr., DH (.213/.329/.401) F. Gutierrez, CF (.274/.340/.406) W. Balentien, LF (.230/.279/.370) C. Woodward, 3B (.400/.471/.400) R. Johnson, C (.183/.238/.292) R. Cedeno, SS (.140/.218/.260) New York Yankees D. Jeter, SS (.307/.381/.451) J. Damon, LF (.291/.367/.532) M. Teixeira, 1B (.275/.384/.568) A. Rodriguez, DH (.233/.399/.497) J. Posada, C (.275/.367/.513) R. Cano, 2B (.300/.332/.482) N. Swisher, RF (.237/.371/.496) M. Cabrera, CF (.286/.346/.441) C. Ransom, 3B (.200/.241/.345) Whatever. Liveblog 2009-07-01T19:53:01-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankeescom_yanks_make_it_six_straight_pick_up_bruney http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankeescom_yanks_make_it_six_straight_pick_up_bruney#When:11:23:00Z NEW YORK—When Brian Bruney came off the disabled list, the plan was to immediately insert him back into the eighth-inning setup role. That was about two weeks ago, when there was nothing but doubt surrounding the Yankees’ bullpen situation. When the bridge to Mariano Rivera was teetering and in danger of crumbling, the Yankees took comfort in knowing Bruney would soon be back. Then, suddenly, the bullpen without Bruney righted itself. Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson demonstrated they could pitch key innings. Phil Hughes went from being a struggling starter to a seemingly unhittable reliever. It wasn’t that they didn’t need Bruney. Instead, he would fit in as just another cog in a sturdy machine. It hasn’t been quite that easy. Bruney has struggled of late in the eighth and has not slid back into the bullpen the way the Yankees hoped. True, they won on Tuesday, beating the Mariners, 8-5, in front of 46,181 at Yankee Stadium for their sixth straight victory. But in many ways the contest raised more questions than it answered. PHil Hughes should pitch the eighth… Bruney’s struggles were the major negative in last night’s win.  I didn’t get to watch the game as I was on the road, but I listened and it sounded like Joba wasn’t great, but serviceable.  It sounded like Phil Coke and Hughes were great, and then Bruney just stunk.  Of course, John Sterling’s too busy telling us that you can’t predict baseball to give much in the way of details about how the game is actually unfolding, although I digress. Anyway, the Yankees win coupled with the Red Sox blowing a 10-1 seventh inning lead made for a fun night in the AL East, with the Yankees moving within two games in the loss column of the AL East lead. Game Recap, vs. Mariners, Players, Brian Bruney, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, Standings 2009-07-01T11:23:00-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/mariners_39_36_yankees_43_32_tuesday_june_30_2009_705pm_game_chatter http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/mariners_39_36_yankees_43_32_tuesday_june_30_2009_705pm_game_chatter#When:21:18:01Z SEA: Brandon Morrow (24, RHP, 0-3, 5.64) vs. NYY: Joba Chamberlain (23, RHP, 4-2, 3.81) Lineups Seattle Mariners I. Suzuki, RF (.372/.402/.500) R. Branyan, 1B (.303/.400/.609) J. Lopez, 2B (.263/.290/.429) K. Griffey Jr., LF (.218/.332/.409) M. Sweeney, DH (.275/.322/.422) F. Gutierrez, CF (.266/.335/.402) C. Woodward, 3B (.364/.462/.364) K. Johjima, C (.229/.253/.354) R. Cedeno, SS (.133/.213/.224) New York Yankees D. Jeter, SS (.309/.384/.455) J. Damon, LF (.288/.364/.526) M. Teixeira, 1B (.276/.387/.575) A. Rodriguez, 3B (.232/.399/.484) R. Cano, 2B (.297/.330/.482) J. Posada, C (.272/.359/.513) H. Matsui, DH (.246/.345/.463) N. Swisher, RF (.237/.373/.500) M. Cabrera, CF (.286/.348/.438) Whatever. Liveblog 2009-06-30T21:18:01-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/la_times_yankees_acquire_eric_hinske_from_pirates_for_2_minor_leaguers http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/la_times_yankees_acquire_eric_hinske_from_pirates_for_2_minor_leaguers#When:14:59:00Z NEW YORK (AP) -- Eric Hinske has been acquired by the New York Yankees from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a pair of minor leaguers. Pittsburgh will receive right-hander Casey Erickson and outfielder Eric Fryer for the utilityman. In addition, the Pirates will give the Yankees cash. Entering 2009, here were Hinske's offensive projections as a Pirate: eric hinske PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA 2009 chone projection 126 111 17 27 5 0 5 15 2 1 14 28 1 .242 .333 .420 16 82 19 .320 2009 marcel projection 126 111 16 27 6 1 5 15 2 1 14 27 1 .244 .331 .435 16 84 22 .322 2009 pecota projection 126 110 16 27 6 0 5 17 3 1 14 30 1 .245 .332 .435 16 85 22 .322 2009 tht projection 126 111 16 28 6 1 5 16 2 1 15 27 1 .251 .343 .449 17 89 27 .332 2009 zips projection 126 111 16 26 6 0 5 13 2 1 14 28 1 .234 .328 .430 16 82 20 .319 2009 cairo projection 126 111 16 27 6 0 5 16 2 1 14 28 1 .240 .332 .440 17 85 23 .324 2009 average projection 126 111 16 27 6 0 5 15 2 1 14 28 1 .243 .333 .435 16 85 22 .323 2009 actuals 126 106 18 27 9 0 1 11 0 0 17 27 3 .255 .373 .368 16 81 4 .330 And his defensive projections in ZR and UZR: Player ZR Pos GP GS Inn PO A E DP PM CH ZR Diff RS RS/162 eric hinske 1B 54 45 408 398 30 3 40 66 77 .856 0 0 0 Tm 3B 33 26 246 17 52 3 5 55 69 .796 1 1 6 PIT LF 49 38 323 67 2 1 0 65 76 .858 0 0 0 League RF 59 52 424 96 3 1 1 94 111 .849 -3 -2 -8 NL Pos G GS Inn PO A E DP DG exO RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150 Age UZR 1B 53 46 440 427 33 4 43 52 55 0 -1 0 0 31 3B 31 25 261 18 55 3 5 28 54 1 0 1 5 LF 47 39 350 72 2 1 0 39 72 1 0 1 4 RF 54 49 425 98 3 1 1 49 97 1 0 1 3 Combined Pos G GS Inn PO A E DP RS RS/162 1B 54 46 424 413 32 4 41 0 0 3B 32 26 254 18 53 3 5 1 6 LF 48 39 337 70 2 1 0 0 2 RF 56 50 425 97 3 1 1 -1 -2 We don't have a ton of sample size for those defensive projections, so take them with a grain of salt. It's probably reasonable to say that Hinske can play four positions competently though, 1B/3B and the OF corners. If we project Hinske going forward, moving him to the Yankees and using his YTD performance to revise his projection, here's what that looks like: Revised projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR wOBA 2009 chone projection 272 236 38 58 14 0 7 29 3 1 33 60 3 .246 .345 .405 34 82 8 .323 2009 marcel projection 272 237 36 58 15 1 8 30 3 1 31 59 4 .247 .344 .416 35 83 9 .324 2009 pecota projection 272 236 36 58 15 1 8 33 4 1 32 63 3 .248 .344 .416 35 84 9 .324 2009 tht projection 272 236 36 59 15 1 8 32 3 1 33 58 3 .252 .352 .425 36 87 10 .332 2009 zips projection 272 236 36 57 15 1 8 27 3 1 32 60 4 .240 .341 .412 34 82 8 .322 2009 cairo projection 272 236 36 58 15 1 8 31 3 1 32 60 4 .244 .344 .419 35 84 9 .326 2009 average projection 272 236 36 58 15 1 8 30 3 1 32 60 4 .246 .345 .415 35 84 9 .325 League average wOBA is around 0.332, so Hinske projects as essentially average offensively going forward (over 300 PA the difference between a .332 wOBA and a .325 wOBA is less than 2 runs), and with the ability to spot the four corners. Here are Casey Erickson's and Eric Fryer's minor league stats. I don't think either is a huge prospect by any means.. Hinske can replace Xavier Nady, who looks to be done for the year, and can spell Alex Rodriguez once a week or so while likely hitting/fielding better than Cody Ransom. The difference between Hinske and Ransom going forward over 200 PAs is around 9 runs offensively, so this could be a nice cheap pickup of a win. Hinske also gives the Yankees a little more OF depth and roster flexibility, since I'd assume this means Ransom becomes the primary backup MI, and Ramiro Pena goes to AAA to get full-time PT, although they could just cut Ransom and keep Pena. So they get a a little more OF depth without wasting another roster spot as well. Tough to see any downside with this acquisition. Thumbs up from me. Players, Alex Rodriguez, Cody Ransom, Eric Hinske, Ramiro Pena 2009-06-30T14:59:00-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankee_zone_rating_and_pitching_bar_graphs_through_games_of_june_28_2009 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankee_zone_rating_and_pitching_bar_graphs_through_games_of_june_28_2009#When:02:24:00Z CH: Playable Chances as defined by Stats Inc’s Zone Rating PM: Plays Made AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender Defense, Pitching, Statistics 2009-06-30T02:24:00-05:00 http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankeescom_rivera_notches_500th_save http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankeescom_rivera_notches_500th_save#When:04:13:00Z NEW YORK -- Mariano Rivera became just the second member of baseball's prestigious 500-save club on Sunday, getting four outs to preserve a 4-2 Yankees victory in a sweep of the Mets at Citi Field. Rivera was summoned in the eighth inning after Chien-Ming Wang went 5 1/3 innings and the bullpen brought the Yankees close to a series sweep of their cross-town rivals. He answered the call, striking out Omir Santos looking to strand two Mets aboard in the eighth -- and working a bases-loaded, full-count walk in the ninth against fellow closer Francisco Rodriguez -- before setting down the side in the ninth, locking down his 18th save in 19 opportunities this season to reach the round "500" number. Mo didn't just pick up save #500, he's now OBP-ing .500 as well. Reader Ryan asked if Mo recorded his first RBI at the oldest age ever. A quick check of the Lahman database shows that he did. A more thorough check of the Lahman database shows that he did not. Here is a list of the 20 players who were the oldest when they recorded the first RBI of their careers. Player Year Age Satchel Paige 1952 46 Fred Johnson 1938 44 Diomedes Olivo 1962 43 Orlando Hernandez 2006 41 Chuck Hostetler 1944 41 David Wells 2004 41 Joe Berry 1944 40 Roger Clemens 2002 40 Chuck Finley 2002 40 Ed Green 1890 40 Frank Tanana 1993 40 Mariano Rivera 2009 39 Lou Koupal 1937 39 Connie Marrero 1950 39 Alex McColl 1933 39 Bill McGhee 1944 39 Bill Morrell 1931 38 Chi-Chi Olivo 1966 38 Steve Reed 2003 38 Lee Riley 1944 38 Bob Thurman 1955 38 Paul Abbott 2004 37 Buzz Clarkson 1952 37 Minnie Mendoza 1970 37 We are lucky to have Mo playing for our favorite team. Chien-Ming Wang wasn't great, but he was decent and he appears to be getting stronger with each outing. He's finally picked up his elusive first win of the year, working up to 85 pitches and recording 11 of his BIP outs via grounder. His season line is going to suck regardless of how he does from here on out, but I think he's shown enough to remain in the rotation for now. Over his last seven outings including tonight (two relief appearances and five starts), he's got an ERA of 5.21 but a FIP of 4.07. Here are his batted ball splits as well: Dates GB% FB% LD% Apr 8 - May 22 30% 46% 24% May 27 - Jun 28 56% 32% 12% While I wouldn't say he's back just yet, I'd say he's heading in the right direction. Game Recap, Vs. Mets, Players, Chien-Ming Wang, Mariano Rivera 2009-06-29T04:13:00-05:00