Thursday, October 22, 2009
Yankees (103-59) @ Angels (97-65), Thursday, October 22, 2009, 7:57pm **Mismatch Chatter**
Lineups
1916 Philadelphia Athletics
Derek Jeter, SS (.334/.404/.465, 5.7 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.282/.364/.489, 3.1 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.292/.383/.565, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.402/.532, 3.5 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.274/.366/.509, 1.9 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.320/.352/.520, 3.5 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.249/.369/.498, 3.0 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.274/.333/.416, 0.9 WAR)
Jose Molina, C (.217/.290/.268, -0.7 WAR)
Total, (.289/.370/.493, 25.6 WAR)
California Angels
Chone Figgins, 3B (.298/.391/.393, 5.7 WAR)
Bobby Abreu, RF (.293/.390/.435, 2.1 WAR)
Torii Hunter, CF (.299/.366/.508, 3.0 WAR)
Vladimir Guerrero, DH (.295/.334/.460, 0.0 WAR)
Kendry Morales, 1B (.306/.355/.569, 3.4 WAR)
Maicer Izturis, 2B (.300/.357/.434, 2.5 WAR)
Juan Rivera, LF (.287/.332/.478, 2.1 WAR)
Jeff Mathis, C (.211/.279/.308, -0.9 WAR)
Erick Aybar, SS (.312/.345/.423, 3.1 WAR)
Total, (.294/.357/.454, 21.0 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: -100.0%
The Yankees will go for the series win tonight in Anaheim with a 3-1 lead.
In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays built up a 3-1 ALCS lead. They lost games 5 and 6 and couldn’t close the deal until Game 7.
In 2007, the Cleveland Indians also had a 3-1 ALCS lead. They proceeded to lose Games 5, 6 and 7 and the ALCS.
I don’t have time to go back past 2007, but this basically shows having a 3-1 lead in the best of 7 ALCS is essentially worthless. If it happened once, it could be a fluke, but it happened twice, which is more than enough proof that it’s not fluke. The biggest guarantee in sports right now is that an ALCS team with a 3-1 series lead WILL LOSE GAME 5.
A.J. Burnett’s been very effective so far in his first career taste of the postseason after a somewhat erratic regular season. Although he’s been pretty good in terms of runs allowed, he’s walked seven and hit four batters in 12.1 IP. Luckily for him, he has not allowed a HR yet and has held opposing hitters to just six hits. Whether that’s skill or luck, it’s good.
The problem is, he’ll be opposing John Lackey instead of Joe Saunders tonght. Lackey’s a better pitcher than Burnett. In terms of their projections, Burnett projects to typically allow about 2.95 runs over six innings. Lackey would project allow 2.82.
In order to win a baseball game, you have to score more runs than you allow.
2.95 > 2.82.
So the Yankees are starting tonight down by 0.13 runs already. Couple that with home field disadvantage, and the Yankees’ win probability is somewhere around 48.8%.
Could the Yankees pull of the unthinkable and win tonight? Sure, as long as they are aware that this is the most important game of the season and they treat it accordingly.
What would it take to win?
We know that the Yanks are in cahoots with MLB and the umpire’s union to make sure that they get every break imaginable, which is sure to help keep the game at least somewhat close. Hopefully the Bankees (see what I did here? I changed the Y to a B to signify the fact that the Yankees are the highest revenue team in MLB and that gives them an advantage over everyone else, but I did it in a clever way that plays on their actual name) have wired sufficient funds to the umpires’ bank accounts prior to tonight’s game.
Hopefully Mariano Rivera is teaching the entire pitching staff the art of the spitball. Even though the guy has pitched for 15 seasons in the biggest market in baseball in some of the highest profile games in the baseball postseason under the intense scrutiny of almost everyone involved in baseball and never been accused or suspected of any type of chicanery, it took the heroic efforts of an Angels’ fanboy blog to finally pinpoint the only reason for his success. He’s been spitting on the ball for all these years. Since the umps are on the take, expect Burnett and whomever else pitches in this game to follow suit.
Maybe Jose Molina goes yard tonight.
Maybe Jeff Mathis doesn’t hit a ringing gapper for an RBI double.
Go Yankees.
Page 1 of 1 pages: