Monday, July 23, 2007
Yankee Playoff Odds Progression
As most of you know, I've been tracking my own version of the Yankees playoff chances by running sets of 500 Diamond Mind simulations for the remaining schedule with updated projections. I thought with the Yankees good play since the All Star Break it'd be a good time to look at how their odds have progressed of late.| Date | AL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | DIV% | WC% | PO% |
| 28-Jun | NYA07 | 88 | 74 | 847 | 706 | 11.3 | 168.0 | 2.3% | 33.6% | 35.9% |
| 11-Jul | NYA07 | 89 | 73 | 856 | 703 | 26.5 | 146.9 | 5.3% | 29.4% | 34.7% |
| 22-Jul | NYA07 | 90 | 72 | 882 | 711 | 47.0 | 168.8 | 9.4% | 33.8% | 43.2% |
On June 28, the Yankees were 36-39 and had a 2.3% chance at the division and a 33.6% chance at the wild card. Overall, their chances at the playoffs were 35.9%.
On July 11, they were 42-43 and had a 5.3% chance at the division and a 29.4% shot at the wild card, and their overall playoff chances were slightly worse at 34.7%.
Since then, the Yankees have gone 9-3 and as of yesterday, the Yankees have 9.4% chance at the division, although that's as much a function of a Boston slump as it is their good play. The wild card chances are still not great, but better than they were at the All Star Break, and their overall playoff percentage is creeping up.
Now, this doesn't include Shelley Duncan who may be worth 10 wins by himself, or Jose Molina, who is probably not worth all that much overall, but it is encouraging to see them moving in the right direction.
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