Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Yankee Offense by Linear Weights through May 8
Yesterday's 8-2 win has again got the Yankees into position to go to .500. We'll see if they can capitalize on that tonight.Andy Pettitte continued to pitch effectively this year. His peripherals are still a little lackluster. His ERA of 2.72 is about a run lower than his FIP of 3.88. Even if he pitches closer to his FIP going forward, he'll be solid.
Jorge Posada's having a remarkable season to this point. After last night, he's hitting .354/.420/.556. By position-adjusted batting runs above average, he's been the best catcher in the AL, slightly ahead of Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. Now if they can just fix his defense...
Alex Rodriguez's slump appears to be over, as he homered, the 479th of his career. It's been a while since A-Rod made a tabloid cover. but he snuck on the Daily News this morning.
More encouragingly overall, the Yankee bullpen as tracked by the bullpen counter no longer has any relievers on pace to pitch over 100 innings this season. I'd still like to see less frequent outings, as Scott Proctor and Luis Vizcaino are on pace to appear in 94 games, and Brian Bruney in 89 games, but it's nice to see the starters giving the team depth. I think the bullpen's current performance will be a lot better with less frequent use. The Yankees have a 4.90 ERA as starters, and a 4.20 ERA as relievers. Here's how that 4.20 ERA ranks amongst AL bullpens.
| Team | Abr | LG | W | L | ERA | IP | H | R | ER | HR | HBP | BB | SO |
| Boston Red Sox | BOS | AL | 3 | 1 | 2.27 | 79.1 | 62 | 24 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 60 |
| Minnesota Twins | MIN | AL | 6 | 4 | 3.15 | 97 | 83 | 34 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 83 |
| Seattle Mariners | SEA | AL | 5 | 1 | 3.57 | 93.1 | 83 | 42 | 37 | 6 | 10 | 44 | 51 |
| Cleveland Indians | CLE | AL | 8 | 4 | 3.75 | 93.2 | 83 | 42 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 38 | 90 |
| Chicago White Sox | CWS | AL | 7 | 4 | 3.83 | 84.2 | 74 | 37 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 79 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | TOR | AL | 2 | 7 | 3.87 | 93 | 84 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 79 |
| Texas Rangers | TEX | AL | 4 | 3 | 3.90 | 108.1 | 105 | 53 | 47 | 13 | 4 | 58 | 85 |
| New York Yankees | NYY | AL | 6 | 8 | 4.20 | 120 | 99 | 58 | 56 | 11 | 4 | 65 | 75 |
| Oakland Athletics | OAK | AL | 6 | 7 | 4.33 | 89.1 | 84 | 45 | 43 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 72 |
| Los Angeles Angels | LAA | AL | 1 | 3 | 4.40 | 92 | 75 | 46 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 40 | 81 |
| Detroit Tigers | DET | AL | 9 | 8 | 4.41 | 98 | 85 | 52 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 66 |
| Baltimore Orioles | BAL | AL | 6 | 5 | 4.54 | 111 | 111 | 57 | 56 | 8 | 4 | 49 | 99 |
| Kansas City Royals | KC | AL | 1 | 9 | 5.16 | 103 | 113 | 67 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 55 | 76 |
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays | TB | AL | 6 | 7 | 5.45 | 100.2 | 119 | 66 | 61 | 13 | 7 | 51 | 70 |
Last thing for today. Here's how the Yankees rate so far by position-adjusted batting runs above average.
| Last | G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BA/BIP | LD% | GB% | pBR |
| Rodriguez | 31 | 141 | .358 | .426 | .797 | .358 | 21.4% | 37.8% | 18.8 |
| Posada | 29 | 112 | .354 | .420 | .556 | .410 | 25.6% | 40.2% | 9.0 |
| Jeter | 30 | 145 | .354 | .424 | .457 | .384 | 20.0% | 54.8% | 5.7 |
| Matsui | 18 | 75 | .259 | .413 | .448 | .260 | 9.4% | 56.6% | 4.1 |
| Giambi | 31 | 126 | .299 | .405 | .486 | .338 | 20.0% | 27.1% | 3.5 |
| Thompson | 6 | 8 | .250 | .250 | .500 | .667 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Phelps | 18 | 38 | .273 | .368 | .394 | .333 | 20.0% | 28.0% | 0.2 |
| Damon | 27 | 111 | .250 | .369 | .370 | .284 | 21.1% | 42.1% | -0.3 |
| Cairo | 12 | 16 | .154 | .313 | .154 | .154 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -0.9 |
| Mientkiewicz | 30 | 84 | .230 | .293 | .392 | .215 | 23.2% | 40.6% | -1.6 |
| Cano | 30 | 127 | .267 | .315 | .362 | .337 | 15.2% | 55.4% | -3.4 |
| Cabrera | 27 | 107 | .232 | .295 | .263 | .256 | 17.4% | 55.8% | -4.1 |
| Nieves | 9 | 21 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 10.5% | 52.6% | -4.4 |
| Abreu | 31 | 149 | .258 | .336 | .313 | .323 | 19.6% | 49.0% | -5.0 |
| G | Games |
| PA | Plate appearances |
| BA | Batting Average |
| OBP | On base percentage |
| SLG | Slugging percentage |
| BA/BIP | Batting average on balls in play |
| LD% | Line drive percentage |
| GB% | Ground ball percentage |
| pBR | Batting runs above average, position-adjusted |
No surprise that A-Rod leads the pack. Posada's been the second most valuable offensive player to this point. Bobby Abreu's the current whipping boy for many fans, and it's justified statistically to this point. I'm not completely worried about him yet, although I'm starting to at least consider the fact he may be done. More disappointing to me has been Robinson Cano and to a lesser extent Melky Cabrera. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who's noticed Doug Mientkiewicz's recent hot streak. He's not going to be great, but if he can get on base at a .350 clip and slug around .420, he's not a problem (assuming his defense plays out as projected).
This team's still not clicking on all cylinders, yet is on pace to score 962 runs. Also, if they play to their pythagorean record for the rest of the season, they'll now win 92 games. You can use my Javascript calculators anytime you want to calculate either of these two numbers.
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