Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Yahoo: Johnny Damon may return to Yankees
The Yanks have plenty of personnel by this point but there still remains the chance that Damon could return to the team but now it's looking the Yankees might only offer him one year and $6 million or $7 million. Damon probably doesn't love the idea of taking such a huge pay cut.
While I have made the case that the Yankees can survive with a LF platoon of TSBG + a right-handed complement, at a certain point Damon's price may drop to the point where it's a no-brainer to bring him back. What's that price? Let's assume a one-year deal is the only thing worth considering given Damon's age. Here's what CAIRO sees as Damon's percentile forecasts as a LF for the Yankees in 2010.
| Player | johnny damon |
| Age | 36 |
| pPos | lf |
| pTm | nya |
| % | PA | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA | aRS | WAR | $$ |
| 80% | 683 | 29 | .285 | .373 | .489 | 111 | 41 | .376 | -1 | 4.0 | $17,971,486 |
| 65% | 663 | 26 | .274 | .359 | .459 | 99 | 30 | .357 | -1 | 2.9 | $13,146,822 |
| Baseline | 650 | 23 | .264 | .344 | .429 | 87 | 20 | .339 | -1 | 1.9 | $8,664,608 |
| 35% | 618 | 19 | .253 | .327 | .402 | 75 | 11 | .321 | -1 | 1.1 | $4,727,805 |
| 20% | 585 | 16 | .242 | .310 | .376 | 64 | 3 | .302 | -1 | 0.3 | $1,162,960 |
| 2009 | 626 | 12 | .283 | .359 | .485 | 96 | 31 | .364 | -1 | 3.0 | $13,697,976 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
aRS: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + aRS divided by 10)
$$ Value assuming a marginal win cost of $4,500,000
Seems to me that any one year deal in the $5-7 is likely to be a good value for the Yankees. It would also hedge against the risk that any one of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher or Nick Johnson miss time in 2010.
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