The Curse of... oh, let's say, Clay Bellinger:








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Mariners (39-38) @ Yankees (45-32), Thursday, July 2, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(102 Comments - 7/2/2009 9:35:15 pm)

Yankees.com: A-Rod puts Yanks’ win streak at seven
(49 Comments - 7/2/2009 7:25:01 pm)

Fangraphs.com: Another Look at HRs at the New Yankee Stadium
(23 Comments - 7/2/2009 6:52:43 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks make it six straight, pick up Bruney
(155 Comments - 7/2/2009 2:22:32 pm)

Mariners (39-37) @ Yankees (44-32), Wednesday, July 1, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(152 Comments - 7/1/2009 10:00:39 pm)

Mariners (39-36) @ Yankees (43-32), Tuesday, June 30, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(360 Comments - 7/1/2009 12:41:00 am)

LA Times: Yankees acquire Eric Hinske from Pirates for 2 minor leaguers
(81 Comments - 6/30/2009 7:50:45 pm)

Yankee Zone Rating and Pitching Bar Graphs through Games of June 28, 2009 (UZR added upon request)
(41 Comments - 6/30/2009 1:24:19 pm)

Yankees.com: Rivera notches 500th save
(78 Comments - 6/30/2009 12:59:16 pm)

Yankees (42-32) @ Mets (37-36), Sunday, June 28, 2009, 8:05pm **Game Chatter**
(432 Comments - 6/29/2009 1:34:36 am)



Player

Current Projected
Jonathan Albaladejo
1 G
162 G
1.3 IP
216 IP
Brian Bruney
1 G
162 G
.3 IP
54 IP
Phil Coke
1 G
162 G
1.7 IP
270 IP
Damaso Marte
1 G
162 G
.3 IP
54 IP
Edwar Ramirez
0 G
0 G
0 IP
0 IP
Mariano Rivera
0 G
0 G
0 IP
0 IP
Jose Veras
0 G
0 G
0 IP
0 IP

Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken



This site is best viewed with a monitor.

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.


Sunday, May 18, 2008

Why The Yankees Are Losing

The chart below shows the Yankees' average projections pro-rated to their actual playing time this season on the left. On the right are the actual YTD performance.

Team NYA Proj Actual
Starters POS PA AVG OBP SLG BR PA AVG OBP SLG BR Diff
Jorge Posada C 66 .293 .392 .499 11 66 .302 .333 .476 9 -2
Jason Giambi 1B 139 .256 .399 .499 23 139 .193 .345 .468 19 -3
Robinson Cano 2B 164 .312 .347 .489 24 164 .208 .256 .318 10 -13
Alex Rodriguez 3B 99 .300 .402 .569 18 99 .286 .343 .495 15 -4
Derek Jeter SS 163 .318 .388 .463 25 163 .314 .346 .431 20 -5
Johnny Damon LF 175 .286 .357 .438 24 175 .257 .341 .454 24 0
Melky Cabrera CF 158 .281 .341 .403 19 158 .262 .325 .426 19 0
Bobby Abreu RF 176 .284 .392 .461 28 176 .288 .352 .450 23 -5
Hideki Matsui DH 163 .291 .370 .489 25 163 .306 .387 .458 24 -1
Starters Total 1303 .292 .373 .471 197 1303 .287 .336 .436 163 -34
Bench POS PA AVG OBP SLG BR PA AVG OBP SLG BR Diff
Shelley Duncan 1B 41 .257 .322 .480 6 41 .194 .293 .250 3 -3
Chad Moeller C 41 .231 .287 .373 4 41 .243 .317 .378 4 0
Alberto Gonzalez SS 41 .250 .300 .351 4 41 .257 .333 .314 4 0
Jose Molina C 84 .250 .287 .375 8 84 .203 .220 .304 5 -4
Chris Stewart C 3 .250 .300 .375 0 3 .000 .000 .000 0 -1
Morgan Ensberg 3B 76 .261 .368 .467 11 76 .214 .276 .257 4 -7
Wilson Betemit SS 27 .265 .338 .443 4 27 .269 .296 .462 3 0
Bench Total 313 .256 .316 .410 36 313 .233 .275 .308 22 -14
Team Total 1616 .285 .362 .459 233 1616 .258 .325 .410 186 -48


BR here are batting runs by linear weights (not position-adjusted or compared to average). Apart from Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera, every Yankee starter has provided less offense than projected and overall the starters are 34 runs below their expectations. The bench has also significantly underperformed to the tune of 14 runs below expectations.

The Yankees are 48 runs below expectations even accounting for the injuries to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. That's five wins, and it at least partially explains why they are 20-23. If the offense had played as expected, they'd be 25-18, which is a 94 win pace and right around where they should have been. Offense is down in the AL by around 11% this season, but the Yankees are scoring 20% less frequently than expected so that's not the whole explanation.

The pitching and defense have not been the problem. The defense is below average but it was supposed to be. The pitching staff has been a little worse than average, but not egregiously so (-2 runs saved above average). It's the lack of offense that's killing this team. Unfortunately, I don't see any moves that can be done to fix that.

--Posted at 2:04 pm by SG / 9 Comments | - (211)



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