Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Defense Edition)
Before getting to the pitching, here’s a quick look at how the 2008 Yankees performed defensively compared to their projections. For my defensive statistics, I use zone rating. If you want to read more about how these numbers are calculated you can read this post or this post. If you want a good general overview of zone rating, read this article by Chris Dial.
First up, here’s how I had the Yankees projected on a team level at each position compared to how they actually ended up doing.
Anyone that wants to look at the details behind the defensive projections can check out this entry so I won’t rehash all that here.
Here’s a rundown by position.
Catcher
rvTE +/-: Run value of throwing errors
rvFE +/-: Run value of fielding errors
rvWP+PB+/-: Run value of wild pitches and passed balls
rvSBA+/-: Run value of stolen base attempts
rvSB+/-: Run value of stolen bases
rvCS+/-: Run value of caught stealings
RSAA: Runs saved above average
Jorge Posada’s a very valuable player at catcher, but that’s because of his bat. His defense is usually average or slightly below average. Posada’s injury led to Jose Molina playing a lot more than expected. As we know, he hit like 1991 Bob Geren, but his glove was outstanding. Using my catcher defense system, he was the best defensive catcher in the AL, and second in MLB behind Jason Kendall.
Posada’s shoulder problems led him to be awful, 5 runs below average in just 234 innings. It’s going to be tough to project the 2009 Yankees without knowing if Posada can handle catching the majority of the time. If he can’t throw better than he did in 2008, he probably gives back the majority of his offensive value on defense.
First Base
G: Games
GS: Games started
INN: Defensive innings at position
Ch: Fieldable chances
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double plays
ZR: Zone rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays made
AvgPM: Plays made by an average defender over the same # of chances
Diff: PM - AvgPM
RS: Runs saved above average (Diff times run value of play not made)
This projected to be a sore spot defensively because Jason Giambi is just not a good defender. Giambi had a ZR of .801 compared to his projected .796, which is basically the same thing. The Richie Sexson pickup cost the Yankees another four runs at 1B in just 19 games. Nice.
Replacing Giambi with an average defender is probably a ten run upgrade. If they replace him with Teixeira it’s probably close to a 15 run defensive upgrade.
Second Base
Robinson Cano had a very strange season on both sides of the ball. We know he hit like garbage for most of the year. What’s interesting about his defense is he was actually playing very well through July 9, as detailed here. Cano went from a zone rating of .865 and a runs saved above average of +8 to a zone rating of .799 and a runs saved above average of -8 in a span of 49 games. From September 5 on he seemed to recover, putting up a zone rating of .884 and saving 4 runs above average over the rest of the season.
Cano will probably project as an average defender next year instead of a plus defender because of this year, but that’d be a 5 run upgrade.
Third Base
If you just look at the runs saved total for Rodriguez it may seem like he was disappointing, but it’s interesting to note that his zone rating of .786 is actually the highest of his career at 3B. So what happened? The average AL 3B zone rating shot way up to .791 this year, after being about .767 from 2004 - 2007. In a league where .767 is average, Rodriguez would have been a +6 defender.
Morgan Ensberg and Wilson Betemit were both craptacular in limited action, and that’s the main reason 3B was so negative overall. As someone who thought an Ensberg/Betemit platoon could approach league average when Rodriguez opted out, let’s just say it’s a good thing I’m not running the Yankees…
Rodriguez probably won’t be any better defensively next year. At his age we should expect him to lose a run or two of value defensively, so I’d say we should expect 3B to be 2 runs worse next year.
Shortstop
He’s the poster boy for defensive ineptitude, and many of the people who use defensive metrics can barely contain their glee when using them to tear apart his game, but Derek Jeter had a good defensive season this year if you believe zone rating. Whether it was an offseason training regimen that improved his agility, better positioning, or a more favorable distibution of balls in play, the difference between last year was stark, both statistically and visually. Realistically we shouldn’t expect it to happen again in 2009, but he was projected around a -10 coming into 2008, and probably will project to be a -6 or -7 in 2009. 2008 Jeter was more valuable than 2007 Jeter because of the glove.
With the AG gone, backup SS is looking like a problem next year. Cody Ransom did not impress in Fenway defensively.
Left Field
I thought Johnny Damon would end up better in LF and for a while he was above average before falling off, but if he’s the LF next year he should be average or slightly below. Xavier Nady didn’t really impress in LF, but for his career he’s been an average RF (-2 LF in a very small sample size). Hideki Matsui has to be a full-time DH at this point. He was awful this year in LF, and his knees won’t help that.
Center Field
We all know Melky couldn’t hit this year, but he did play solid defense. Damon wasn’t awful in CF, although I doubt he could hold up full-time. Brett Gardner only got 22 games in CF, but his ZR was ridiculously good and he saved 3 runs in very limited time. While I still am not sold on him being able to hit enough to be a starting CF, if his glove and baserunning are as good as they appear to be, it’s very possible he can start in CF with a slightly below average bat. It depends on how below average he is of course.
Right Field
Coming into 2008, Bobby Abreu projected to be about average in RF. Instead he was the absolute worst defensive player in the AL according to zone rating. Abreu’s not obviously bad as far as making errors, but he’s extremely tentative and just doesn’t seem to get to balls that most other players get to. Still, he’s probably not as bad of a defender as his 2008 stats make him look. If I had to project him next year I’d probably project him around a -10 or so. If I were the Yankees I’d still offer him arbitration and hope he declines, because he probably will still be a pretty good player next year if you get stuck with him. I wouldn’t entertain the thought of signing him to a multi-year extension though. Xavier Nady should be able to fill RF next year and play average or slightly below average defense, although he’s not going to hit like Abreu has.
So going into 2008, the Yankees looked to be about two wins worse than an average defense. They actually wound up four wins worse, and that’s almost entirely on Abreu. They should be able to upgrade 1B fairly easily (let’s say +10), Cano should be better at 2B(+5), Jeter will likely be a fair bit worse(-10), Rodriguez and Damon will probably be a little worse(-4 combined). CF depends on if they go with Melky/Gardner or bring someone in(??), and Nady should be better than 2008 Abreu(+15). If Posada is the catcher, that’s a defensive hit(-15).
So minus CF, adding all that up we get +1 compared to 2008. So yeah, don’t expect a much better defense next year.
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