---

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Where they stand

Even though the carpets in the clubhouse probably still stink of champagne, writers and bloggers and ill-informed yahoos everywhere are already putting fuel on the hot stove, with visions of Lackey or Holliday or Chapman dancing in their heads.

Most of the core of the 2009 Yankees will be back to defend their World Series title, but as there are every year, there will still be plenty of cosmetic, and even some structural changes to the team’s foundation.

Let’s start with what they bring back, with some help from the invaluable Cot’s Baseball Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com).

At the top, Brian Cashman has two more years to go on his deal (2011) and Joe Girardi is entering the final year of his initial contract.

On the field, the Yankees can run out the following lineup next year without doing a thing, based on who they have under contract.

C - Jorge Posada (signed through 2011)
1B - Mark Teixeira (signed through 2016)
2B - Robinson Cano (signed through 2011, with club options through 2013)
SS - Derek Jeter (signed through 2010)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (signed through the end of time, 2017).
RF - Nick Swisher (signed through 2011, with 2012 club option)
CF - Brett Gardner (Reserved)
LF - Melky Caberea (Arbitration eligible)
DH - Juan Miranda (2010)

SP - CC Sabathia (2015, with a 2011 opt-out)
SP - AJ Burnett (2013)
SP - Phil Hughes (Reserved)
SP - Joba Chamberlain (Reserved)
SP - Chad Gaudin (Arbitration eligible)

CL - Mariano Rivera (2010)
RP - Damaso Marte (2011 with 2012 club option)
RP - Dave Robertson (Reserved)
RP - Phil Coke (Reserved)
RP - Alfredo Aceves (Reserved)
RP - Edwar Ramirez (Reserved)
RP - Brian Bruney (Arbitration eligible)
RP - Sergio Mitre (2010 club option)

Bench: Ramiro Pena (Reserved), Francisco Cervelli (Reserved), Shelley Duncan (Reserved) and Freddy Guzman (Reserved)

DL - Chien-Ming Wang (Arbitration eligible)

If that is the Opening Day roster next year - I will personally buy all of you a pair of Legends Seats.

So how’d a championship-caliber team wind up starting two sub-replacement level guys in the outfield, slotting three unproven commodities in the rotatation and with a a bench that would make the Newark Bears giggle? Well, if you’ve been under a rock, here’s the rundown: World Series MVP Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Andy Pettite, Jose Molina, Eric Hinske, Xavier Nady (remember him?) and Jerry Hairston Jr. have all either filed, or they will file, for free agency.

That’s your outfield/DH situation, one starter and most of a pretty formidable bench.

They club has several decisions to make with their free agent bunch: Matsui or Damon? Or both? Or neither? Andy Pettite - the mound or the YES booth? Jose Molina or death by Burnett’s whining? Jerry Hairston Jr. or Jerry Hairston Sr.?

But there’s also a group of arbitration guys they need to process: Bruney, Cabrera, Gaudin, Josh Towers and the damaged goods Wang.

There’s also the looming 2010 disaster (not to be confused with Roland Emmerich’s 2012 disaster), which is to say that Jeter and Rivera - and Juan Miranda (Oh noes!!11!!1one!), as well as Joe Girardi will all be up for new deals after next season.

All told, that’s a lot of juggling for a team that we said at the beginning would be mostly back next year - as many as nine roster spots between the field and the pitching staff and the bench could be in play, not exactly a recipe for stability.

So how does one solve it? Hell if I know - I’m just a yahoo watching from his couch - but here’s a few humble suggestions.

1) Re-sign Andy Pettite quickly. He’s certainly not going to take the $5.5 million plus incentives again and you made him beg for it last year. Swallow hard and get something done before the Winter Meetings. He could go all kablooey, but he’s as sure a bet as anyone else in the free agent class to provide league-average value.

2) Pick Damon or Matsui, but not both, and keep the commitment short. It’s hard to say good bye, but I’m tempted to bring back Damon, if only because he can still physically stand between the foul line and whoever the Yankees start in center without risking catastrophic injuries. Matsui was a wonderful Yankee, but really, truly between the knees surgeries and advanced age, its probably time for him to go home to a hero’s welcome in Japan.

3) Love me non-tender. The deadline to non-tender arbitration eligible is December 12. By not tendering a player a contract, the team can bring them back, but doesn’t have to, and the player becomes a free agent. In this year’s class of Yankee arbitration cases, I’d guess that Brian Bruney, Towers and Wang will all be non-tendered. Bruney has pitched his last for a Yankee team, but Towers may wind up back in the system since he pitched decent enough at Scranton.

Wang is a much more challenging case. He’ll be on the shelf for at least the first half of the year in all likelihood, and when he comes back, there’s no guarantee he’ll be anywhere close to as effective as he was. It’s hard, but has Hyman Roth said, “This is the business we have chosen,” and the Yankees are more than likely to let Wang choose to go somewhere else.

The flip side of the non-tender deadline is what other team’s discard, either by pre-emptive trade or by the traditional non-tendering. MLB Trade Rumors (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/nontender-candidates.html) has a decent list of potential non-tenders - some of whom have already been traded or otherwise dispensed with - and it features a few interesting guys the Yankees may kick the tires on - Dioner Navarro or Garrett Atkins to name a few.

4) Find me a No. 4. It’s likely the Yankees with go into 2010 playing roulette with the former Big Three for the fifth rotation spot, but I think most Yankee fans would like to see someone more proven slot in behind (or ahead) of Pettitte in the rotation. Below the top level (Read: Lackey, John), its a bunch of guys like Randy Wolf, Tim Hudson, Rich Harden, Jon Garland and *stifles laugh* Carl Pavano. Ideally, You could get 350-400 innings of quality starting pitching out of Hughes, Joba and Kennedy, but I’ve seen that movie before and would rather try and milk 150 or so innings out of the three and have a sufficient backup plan. Given that, Harden’s talent is probably the best, but his injury history reads like Congress’ health care bill - which is to say very, very long. However, on a short-term deal, the Yankees have enough money and notional depth in the Big Three, plus guys like Ivan Nova, etc in the minors that its a risk worth taking.

5) Jose can you see… The door? Good. Now don’t let it hit you. Cervelli did enough to earn a crack at being AJ’s caddy and Jorge’s backup, but if Matsui goes, bringing in a backup with pop like Gregg Zaun, Bengie Molina or Mike Redmond would give you a chance to DH Posada without opening a giant sucking chest wound in the lineup.

6) Stay-cation, not Holliday. The consensus No. 1 free agent this year is Matt Holliday. In the words of Bill James “Pass.” When he’s not in Colorado, he’s just not premium talent, and in a market where he’s the headliner, someone will pay him premium money. The Yankees did this with Teixeira last year, he was a good, not great player and they paid him like a great one and got lucky that he played up to the contract. It’s not a bet I’d make again. With guys like Mike Cameron or Rick Ankiel or Xavier Nady or Randy Winn (or someone who gets non-tendered) available and Austin Jackson on the come, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to commit long term to an expensive guy like Holliday. Same applies for Jason Bay.

7) Bring in the reserves! This year, the Yankees had a very good bench. With older players, and no permanent DH, a strong bench is almost a prerequisite to success. Provided by Melky and Gardner are back, the team probably needs a corner outfielder, a corner infielder and a middle infielder - at least. Think guys like Mark DeRosa, Felipe Lopez, Hairston, Hank Blalock, etc. Guys who’d be starters on other teams, but might only get 300-400 ABs for the Yankees as part of a rotation.

8) Who’s that Chap, man? Aroldis Chapman is apparently Cuban for Stephen Strasburg. The 21-year-old southpaw is the kind of guy that makes scouts and agents drool. He’s been making the rounds and, of course, the Yankees are at least window shopping. Chapman is exactly the kind of talent the Yankees should throw their financial muscle around on - young, controllable and available without surrendering draft compensation.

9) Solve 2010 ahead of time. It would be unthinkable for the 2011 season to start with Derek Jeter wearing a Curly W in Washington or Mariano Rivera doing his thing for the Dodgers in L.A. - probably to the players, the front office and the fans. Therefore, why do the kabuki theatre of dancing around things and just hammer out the necessary extensions now. Even if something happens to make the contract an albatross, its worth it to avoid the PR-headache.

I’d also look for Girardi to get his deal re-upped before Opening Day. If it hangs around, it’ll be an invitation for an endless parade of “Is Joe on the hot seat?” stories. Best to avoid that.

Will the Yankees actually do any of this? I have no idea, but half the fun of the Hot Stove is just throwing a wild ass guesses against the wall so in February I can turn around and say “Lookit! Imma geeeeeeenius!”