Thursday, September 10, 2009
When Might the Yankees Clinch the AL East (if they do)?
A few weeks back, I got an email from a reader who wondered if I could give him the probability of the Yankees clinching the division on certain dates. With a little bit of tweaking, I was able to rig my Monte Carlo simulator to do just that. I didn't want to post about it then because of the whole jinx/karma thing, but I think I can post it now.Again, this is only IF the Yankees somehow manage to win the AL East against a clearly better Red Sox team. Nothing is decided yet.
| Date | % |
| 9/19/2009 | 0.1% |
| 9/20/2009 | 0.8% |
| 9/21/2009 | 2.4% |
| 9/22/2009 | 6.1% |
| 9/23/2009 | 9.8% |
| 9/24/2009 | 5.0% |
| 9/25/2009 | 18.1% |
| 9/26/2009 | 16.5% |
| 9/27/2009 | 13.4% |
| 9/28/2009 | 10.6% |
| 9/29/2009 | 7.3% |
| 9/30/2009 | 4.8% |
| 10/1/2009 | 1.0% |
| 10/2/2009 | 2.1% |
| 10/3/2009 | 1.2% |
| 10/4/2009 | 0.8% |
Hmm, clinching at home against Boston on Friday, September 25 has the hightest probability right now. That'd be fun.
For all you pie chart freaks, here's how that looks in pie chart form.
And updating last week's post about win probabailities:
| Win Totals | % |
| 97 | 0.3% |
| 98 | 0.7% |
| 99 | 1.8% |
| 100 | 4.6% |
| 101 | 8.2% |
| 102 | 12.5% |
| 103 | 16.5% |
| 104 | 18.6% |
| 105 | 15.6% |
| 106 | 10.8% |
| 107 | 6.2% |
| 108 | 3.1% |
| 109 | 0.9% |
| 110 | 0.3% |
Yeah, there's a 2.8% chance this team WON'T win at least 100 games. I like that.
If the Yankees go 10-11 from here on out, Boston would have to go 20-3 to tie them.
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