Wednesday, July 30, 2008
What is Two Months of Pudge Rodriguez Worth?
With Jorge Posada out for the year, the Yankees catching has been a sore spot. Jose Molina's done the job defensively but he can't hit. Chad Moeller is not even as good as Molina. So the Yankees made a good move earlier today by picking up Pudge Rodriguez for Kyle Farnsworth.Farnsworth's having the best year of his Yankee career, but he's easily replaceable by Damaso Marte, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, and just about everyone else in the pen. So the negative impact on the bullpen should be minimal.
On the position player side, the Yankees go from Molina as the starting catcher and Moeller as the backup to Rodriguez as the starter and Molina as the backup. Here's what that looks like on offense.
| Before | % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR |
| Molina | 75% | 169 | 161 | 15 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 32 | .237 | .275 | .342 | 14 |
| Moeller | 25% | 56 | 51 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | .212 | .281 | .308 | 4 |
| Total | 226 | 212 | 20 | 49 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 46 | .231 | .276 | .334 | 19 | |
| After | % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR |
| Rodriguez | 75% | 169 | 162 | 18 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 6 | 29 | .278 | .310 | .404 | 19 |
| Molina | 25% | 56 | 54 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 | .237 | .275 | .342 | 5 |
| Total | 226 | 215 | 23 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 9 | 39 | .268 | .301 | .389 | 24 |
BR: Batting runs by linear weights (not position-adjusted or compared to average)
There are only 59 games left in the season. Assuming 4.1 PA per game, that's 226 PA. So the Yankees upgrade from an estimated 19 batting runs with Molina/Moeller to 24 batting runs. That's about a half-win upgrade. Defensively, Pudge + Molina is probably about 2- 3 runs better than Molina-Moeller over 59 games. So the Yankees are probably somewhere around 8 runs better over the rest of the season. Depending on the leverage/timing of those runs, that could be the difference between making the postseason or not.
The Yankees filled the biggest hole in their lineup without hurting their present or future outlook one bit. And they upgraded from a Type B free agent (Farnsworth) to a Type A (Rodriguez). Seems like another solid deal for Cashman.
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