Thursday, December 10, 2009
What Cost Granderson?
Following up on yesterday’s post about Curtis Granderson, here’s a look at what the Yankees gave up in Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke.
The key player in the package is probably Jackson, who was generally considered the Yankees' second best position player prospect and played in AAA last year. Jackson's a very good athlete who was signed out of a committment to play point guard at Georgia Tech.Although Jackson hit reasonably well this year for Scranton/WB (.300/.359/.406), a deeper look at his numbers could be a cause for concern. He struck out 130 times and needed a BABIP of .392 to hit that line. His BABIP in 2008 for Trenton was .346, and in 2007 it was .360. While it's possible his ability to get hits on balls in play has improved, it's doubtful that he could sustain a BABIP quite that high.
Jackson's power is also somewhat uninspiring, and probably the biggest reason I was somewhat concerned about how he'd do in the majors. Of course, that was a concern with Brett Gardner as well and at least in 2009 it was overblown.
Here's how CAIRO has Jackson projected for 2010.
| % | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 80% | 141 | 604 | 560 | 76 | 150 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 59 | 51 | 115 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 11 | .269 | .337 | .410 | 77 | 19 | .332 |
| 65% | 137 | 587 | 544 | 69 | 140 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 54 | 46 | 117 | 3 | 23 | 5 | 13 | .258 | .323 | .383 | 67 | 10 | .315 |
| Baseline | 135 | 575 | 533 | 64 | 132 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 120 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 14 | .247 | .309 | .355 | 57 | 1 | .298 |
| 35% | 128 | 546 | 507 | 57 | 120 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 120 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 12 | .236 | .292 | .332 | 48 | -5 | .280 |
| 20% | 121 | 518 | 480 | 50 | 108 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 32 | 118 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 10 | .225 | .274 | .309 | 39 | -11 | .262 |
| 2009 | 132 | 550 | 510 | 59 | 123 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 35 | 134 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 14 | .241 | .296 | .322 | 48 | -6 | .279 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Not a very inspiring range of projections. However, because of his age and his athleticism, Jackson almost certainly has the physical upside to make a big leap forward and blow away these projections.
If we forecast him through 2013 like we did with Granderson, here's how that looks.
| Year | Age | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 2010 | 22 | 575 | 533 | 64 | 132 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 120 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 14 | .247 | .309 | .355 | 57 | 1 | .298 |
| 2011 | 23 | 594 | 551 | 68 | 137 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 44 | 123 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 15 | .249 | .312 | .359 | 59 | 2 | .301 |
| 2012 | 24 | 607 | 563 | 70 | 142 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 45 | 124 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 15 | .252 | .316 | .361 | 63 | 4 | .304 |
| 2013 | 25 | 588 | 546 | 69 | 140 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 44 | 121 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 15 | .256 | .320 | .367 | 62 | 5 | .309 |
| Total | 2364 | 2193 | 271 | 551 | 95 | 17 | 37 | 213 | 176 | 488 | 16 | 76 | 24 | 59 | .251 | .314 | .360 | 242 | 13 | .303 |
If we run the same four year forecast but assume he hits his 80% projection in 2010, here's how it looks.
| Year | Age | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 2010 | 22 | 604 | 560 | 76 | 150 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 59 | 51 | 115 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 11 | .269 | .337 | .410 | 77 | 19 | .332 |
| 2011 | 23 | 606 | 562 | 73 | 145 | 26 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 120 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 14 | .258 | .324 | .383 | 68 | 9 | .316 |
| 2012 | 24 | 619 | 575 | 76 | 151 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 60 | 50 | 122 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 14 | .262 | .329 | .386 | 72 | 12 | .320 |
| 2013 | 25 | 602 | 559 | 75 | 149 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 59 | 49 | 119 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 13 | .267 | .335 | .397 | 73 | 14 | .327 |
| Total | 2431 | 2255 | 299 | 596 | 109 | 22 | 47 | 236 | 198 | 476 | 12 | 89 | 18 | 51 | .264 | .331 | .394 | 290 | 55 | .324 |
Again, I'll reiterate that Jackson almost definitely has the tools to exceed these projections, and I'll also mention that projection systems are inherently limited, even one as awesome as CAIRO.
Jackson supposedly has good speed, so he may also be able to derive more value from his defense and baserunning. If he can be a +5 defender in CF and a +5 baserunner, then he should be a better than replacement level option in CF.
A lot would have to break right for Jackson to end up being as valuable as Granderson projects to be though, and that's the key for the Yankees for the next four seasons.
Although Ian Kennedy didn't pitch well at all in 2008 and missed most of 2009 with an aneurysm and subsequent surgery, I am still somewhat bearish on him. I don't think his ceiling is much beyond third starter/league average, but that's a good thing to have. Hell, it just made Andy Pettitte $11.75M.
Here's how CAIRO saw Kennedy projecting as a Yankee.
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 11 | 8 | 165 | 160 | 79 | 69 | 12 | 67 | 135 | 4.29 | 3.77 | 3.87 | 25.7 | 2.6 |
| 65% | 9 | 8 | 158 | 159 | 83 | 74 | 14 | 68 | 123 | 4.76 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 16.2 | 1.6 |
| Baseline | 8 | 9 | 150 | 158 | 88 | 78 | 15 | 69 | 112 | 5.28 | 4.68 | 4.52 | 6.8 | 0.7 |
| 35% | 7 | 8 | 135 | 148 | 83 | 74 | 15 | 66 | 96 | 5.56 | 4.94 | 4.85 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 20% | 6 | 8 | 120 | 136 | 78 | 69 | 15 | 62 | 81 | 5.84 | 5.21 | 5.18 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
| 2009 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.52 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
That's not an awful projection, but it's worse than either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain. It's also worse than the following mystery pitcher's projection.
| W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 8 | 8 | 150 | 145 | 84 | 77 | 17 | 66 | 124 | 5.04 | 4.64 | 4.43 | 10.8 | 1.1 |
This mystery pitcher is only two years older than IPK, and is on the Yankees already.
With Andy Pettitte back in the fold, and with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett at the top of the rotation, the Yankees ostensibly want to use Hughes and Chamberlain in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. That means Kennedy and the mystery pitcher would probably be pitching in long relief or the minors waiting for a break.
Because Chad Gaudin projects at the very least to be as good as Kennedy, and has experience working out of the bullpen, and also has relative youth on his side, I think he made Kennedy expendable. Obviously, if you lose more than one starter you start to get in the Igawa zone, but maybe the Yankees feel comfortable that they have enough depth with Gaudin, Aceves, Zach McAllister and others to take that risk.
Lastly, the Yankees also gave up Phil Coke. I like Coke and think he'll be a useful lefty reliever, but he's an extreme fly ball pitcher who will give up a good amount of HRs, especially in DNYS.
Here are Coke's CAIRO projections for 2010.
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 5 | 3 | 66 | 57 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 22 | 53 | 3.90 | 3.62 | 3.76 | 9.6 | 1.0 |
| 65% | 4 | 3 | 63 | 59 | 32 | 29 | 7 | 23 | 47 | 4.51 | 4.20 | 4.31 | 4.9 | 0.5 |
| Baseline | 3 | 3 | 60 | 60 | 35 | 32 | 8 | 25 | 42 | 5.18 | 4.84 | 4.86 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 35% | 3 | 3 | 54 | 57 | 34 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 5.62 | 5.27 | 5.40 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 20% | 2 | 3 | 48 | 54 | 32 | 30 | 8 | 24 | 28 | 6.06 | 5.69 | 5.95 | -4.5 | -0.5 |
As a situational lefty reliever, Coke's a tactical option whose value is not necessarily going to be properly reflected in a normal runs saved above average/replacement level scale, but it doesn't seem like he's necessarily a big loss. Especially with Damaso Marte around. The Yankees also seem to like Michael Dunn a lot, although unless he makes a quantum leap forward with his command I don't think he's an option.
I also wouldn't be shocked if the Yankees made a play for Mike Gonzalez in a quest to rebuild the 2006 Pirates bullpen if they decided to bid on a Type A free agent for LF/DH, which would mean it wouldn't cost them a first round pick to go after Gonzalez.
I think too many people get hung up on the notion of "winning" a trade, and feel any trade that's not clearly an obvious win by their team's GM is a bad one. It shouldn't be that cut and dried though. A good trade should make sense on all sides and help all teams, and I think this trade does that for both the Tigers and the Yanks. The Dbacks, I'm not so sure...
Update: As requested, here's Kennedy's four year forecast if he hits his baseline projection in 2010.
| Year | Age | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 2010 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 150 | 158 | 88 | 78 | 15 | 69 | 112 | 5.28 | 4.68 | 4.40 | 3.7 | 0.4 |
| 2011 | 26 | 9 | 10 | 174 | 181 | 103 | 92 | 17 | 82 | 130 | 5.34 | 4.76 | 4.45 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | 27 | 10 | 12 | 194 | 203 | 117 | 104 | 20 | 92 | 142 | 5.42 | 4.84 | 4.51 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 2013 | 28 | 11 | 12 | 210 | 221 | 123 | 110 | 21 | 99 | 152 | 5.27 | 4.69 | 4.47 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
And if he hit his 80% projection in 2010, his going-forward forecast would look more like this.
| Year | Age | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 2010 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 165 | 160 | 79 | 69 | 12 | 67 | 135 | 4.29 | 3.77 | 3.76 | 22.2 | 2.2 |
| 2011 | 26 | 11 | 9 | 190 | 183 | 93 | 83 | 14 | 79 | 154 | 4.42 | 3.92 | 3.85 | 22.8 | 2.3 |
| 2012 | 27 | 13 | 10 | 212 | 205 | 106 | 94 | 16 | 90 | 169 | 4.48 | 3.98 | 3.90 | 24.0 | 2.4 |
| 2013 | 28 | 14 | 11 | 230 | 224 | 111 | 98 | 17 | 96 | 181 | 4.34 | 3.85 | 3.87 | 29.5 | 3.0 |
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