Saturday, August 1, 2009
What a Difference Three Crappy Days Can Make
| Date | Team | W | L | RS | RA | TmStr | Div | WC | PL |
| 29-Jul | Yankees | 96.9 | 65.1 | 877 | 741 | .592 | 64.8% | 25.0% | 89.8% |
| 1-Aug | Yankees | 95.3 | 66.7 | 873 | 749 | .583 | 51.2% | 29.9% | 81.0% |
| Diff | Yankees | -1.6 | 1.6 | -4 | 8 | -.009 | -13.6% | 4.8% | -8.8% |
W: Projected wins
L: Projected losses
RS: Projected runs scored
RA: Projected runs allowed
TmStr: Team strength (estimated using 1/3 YTD WPCT, 1/3 YTD Pythagenpat, 1/3 2009 Projection)
Div: Division title percentage
WC: Wild card percentage
PL: Div + WC
These playoff odds are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulator that I downloaded from xlssports.com. I've tweaked it to work mid-season, and to allow me greater latitude when determining team strength, but the basic framework is the same. The odds are generally right around the average of Baseball Prospectus's various playoff odds reports. Both sets of simulations were run 10,000 times.
The Yanks will have to beat Mr. Perfect Mark Buehrle tomorrow to avoid a brutal sweep. Good luck with all that...
Page 1 of 1 pages: