Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Updated American League Playoff Outlook as of June 18
Back on May 20, I looked at the Yankees' playoff chances using my Diamond Mind simulation tools with 2007 projections updated to include 2007 actual performance. It's been about a month, so I kicked off another set off 1000 to see what's changed.A few notes before the numbers:
1) Projections are based on a weighing of 80% of the projection entering the season and 20% of current YTD performance. Is that right? I have no idea, but it seems about right to me.
2) I didn't mess with the National League, so I'm not going to post those numbers.
3) The rotation I used for the Yankees was Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina 1-4, with a split between Clippard, Igawa, and Hughes in the five spot.
4) These projections assume that Jason Giambi is out for the year, and that Damon will be the primary DH going forward. First base was a hodge-podge of Cairo, Phelps, and Mientkiewicz, about 33% each.
I'll continue to run these periodically as the season progresses out of my own curiousity and based on any roster changes.
To the numbers...
| American League | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | DIV% | WC% | PO% | High | Low |
| East | W | W | |||||||||
| Bos07 | 101.8 | 60.2 | 892 | 704 | 906.0 | 70.5 | 90.6% | 7.1% | 97.7% | 116 | 85 |
| NYA07 | 92.6 | 69.4 | 887 | 713 | 93.0 | 596.5 | 9.3% | 59.7% | 69.0% | 107 | 76 |
| Tor07 | 79.6 | 82.4 | 793 | 782 | 1.0 | 10.3 | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 94 | 64 |
| Bal07 | 70.7 | 91.3 | 757 | 829 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 87 | 56 |
| Tam07 | 68.4 | 93.6 | 788 | 962 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 83 | 53 |
| Central | |||||||||||
| Cle07 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 878 | 754 | 649.7 | 75.5 | 65.0% | 7.6% | 72.5% | 105 | 76 |
| Det07 | 89.6 | 72.4 | 895 | 784 | 292.7 | 131.3 | 29.3% | 13.1% | 42.4% | 106 | 76 |
| Min07 | 84.0 | 78.0 | 779 | 754 | 56.7 | 36.3 | 5.7% | 3.6% | 9.3% | 99 | 68 |
| ChA07 | 73.6 | 88.4 | 752 | 848 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 88 | 58 |
| KC07 | 65.2 | 96.8 | 749 | 891 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 80 | 52 |
| West | |||||||||||
| LAA07 | 93.2 | 68.8 | 797 | 699 | 831.0 | 19.8 | 83.1% | 2.0% | 85.1% | 107 | 80 |
| Oak07 | 84.9 | 77.2 | 746 | 693 | 123.0 | 38.7 | 12.3% | 3.9% | 16.2% | 99 | 72 |
| Sea07 | 82.5 | 79.5 | 794 | 804 | 45.0 | 19.0 | 4.5% | 1.9% | 6.4% | 98 | 66 |
| Tex07 | 68.8 | 93.2 | 807 | 908 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 88 | 55 |
Since I ran these on May 20, the Yankees chances at both the division title and the playoffs have increased a bit. Their division chances went from 7.8% to 9.3% and their wild card chances went from 46.6% to 59.7% Their overall playoff chances improved from 54.4% to 69.0%. That's partially improvement by the Yankees, and also partially due to Boston coming back down to earth a bit, both things that were reasonable expectations all along, even if they didn't seem like it at times.
The division's still pretty clearly Boston's to lose, but the Yankees at least have a puncher's chance. I suppose they still need this foolishness too...
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