Friday, October 9, 2009
Twins (87-76) @ Yankees (103-59), Friday, October 9, 2009, 6:07 PM ET **Game Chatter**
Lineups
Minnesota Twins
Denard Span, RF (.312/.387/.417, 3.9 WAR)
Orlando Cabrera, SS (.283/.313/.385, 0.2 WAR)
Joe Mauer, C (.364/.442/.586, 6.9 WAR)
Jason Kubel, DH (.300/.369/.535, 2.7 WAR)
Michael Cuddyer, 1B (.276/.342/.520, 1.3 WAR)
Delmon Young, LF (.285/.307/.428, -0.8 WAR)
Carlos Gomez, CF (.227/.280/.335, 0.3 WAR)
Matt Tolbert, 3B (.228/.288/.306, -0.4 WAR)
Nick Punto, 2B (.228/.326/.285, 0.8 WAR)
Total, (.287/.349/.441, 14.9 WAR)
New York Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS (.334/.404/.465, 5.7 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.282/.364/.489, 3.1 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.292/.383/.565, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.402/.532, 3.5 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.274/.366/.509, 1.9 WAR)
Nick Swisher, LF (.249/.369/.498, 3.0 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.320/.352/.520, 3.5 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.274/.333/.416, 0.9 WAR)
Jose Molina, C (.217/.290/.268, -0.7 WAR)
Total, (.289/.370/.493, 25.6 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: 61.7%
A lot of people are not happy about Jose Molina getting the start over Jorge Posada in tonight’s game, but is it really that big of a deal? If we assume there’s no real statistical impact on Burnett based on who his catcher is, we can compare a lineup with Posada against today’s lineup featuring Molina and see what the difference is.
With Posada
In terms of the impact to the overall lineup, with Posada playing and batting sixth, the Yankees would project to hit .285/.366/.476 and bat 43 times against an average pitcher. By linear weights, that would be worth around 6.4 batting runs. Assuming everyone plays all nine innings, the defense would be -.0667 runs worse than average. Assuming the pitching usage goes something like Burnett for six, Marte and/or Coke for one, Hughes for one, and then Mo for one, the Yankees would project to allow 4.24 runs in the game against an average team.
Runs scored: 6.4
Pitching: 4.24
Defense = -0.0667
Plugging that into Pythagenpat gives us a neutral field winning percentage of .691.
With Molina
Instead, with tonight’s lineup the Yankees would project to hit .278/.354/.457 and bat 42 times. That would be worth 6.0 batting runs.
Again, assuming everyone plays all nine innings, the defense would now be -.0046 runs worse than average due to the upgrade from Molina to Posada defensively. We’ll assume the exact same pitching usage and efficacy.
Runs scored: 6.0
Pitching: 4.24
Defense = -0.0046
Plugging that into Pythagenpat gives us a neutral field winning percentage of .659.
Using those winning percentages plugged into log 5 to estimate win probabilities versus tonight’s Twins lineup and pitching and adjusting for home field advantage tells us:
Win Probability With Posada: 64.3%
Win Probability With Molina: 61.7%
So there is an impact, but it’s small. Given the margin of error we’re dealing with here in projecting offense, defense and pitching, it’s probably not even statistically significant. This doesn’t factor in the fact that Posada would likely pinch-hit for Molina late in the game if Molina’s spot comes up in a crucial situation or that Burnett would pitch better with Molina.
Obviously, the key to this game is Burnett. He faced the Twins twice this year and had a 2.77 ERA against them, but he didn’t really pitch that well. He walked 10 in 13 innings while only striking out nine. Hiis peripherals against the Twins would yield a FIP of 4.12. He also allowed no HRs against them despite allowing 19 fly balls. Burnett’s HR/FB ratio is 10.3% over his career and in 2009 he was at 10.8%, which means he probably should have yielded a couple of HRs, aka an xFIP of 6.21. Of course, we generally don’t want to try and draw too much distinction from data at the game level due the small sample size.
If the Yankees win this game, their odds of advancing to the ALCS go from 82.1% to 93.5%. If they lose, their odds drop to 65.9%. That’s a big swing. It’s a big enough swing that we have to acknowledge the importance of this game.
The weather forecast for tonight isn’t very encouraging, although Accuweather seems to think it’ll clear up late (around 11 pm), so they may delay the game for a few hours and shoot to get it in based on what appears to be a window between 11 PM and 5 AM.
Go Yankees.
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