The Curse of... oh, let's say, Clay Bellinger:








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Fox Sports- Rosenthal: Yanks’ Mussina to retire after first 20-win season
(45 Comments - 11/20/2008 2:44:11 am)

NY Post: BERNIE: I’M NOT DONE YET
(48 Comments - 11/19/2008 7:12:05 pm)

Newsday: Yankees gunning for Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, sources say
(136 Comments - 11/19/2008 3:09:46 pm)

If the 2009 Season Started On November 16, 2008
(109 Comments - 11/18/2008 2:26:32 pm)

Newsday-O’Brien:  Source: Yankees offer CC Sabathia lucrative deal
(111 Comments - 11/18/2008 10:13:45 am)

Breaking Down the Nick Swisher Trade
(85 Comments - 11/15/2008 10:30:24 am)

ESPN: Sources: Yankees acquire Swisher, send Marquez to White Sox
(109 Comments - 11/14/2008 9:09:43 am)

Is Damaso Marte Worth his New Contract?
(38 Comments - 11/13/2008 5:37:55 pm)

Impacto Deportivo: Exclusiva; Dámaso Marte firma por 12 millones de dólares con los Yanquis
(48 Comments - 11/13/2008 10:19:22 am)

Newsday: Despite economy, Yanks will be big spenders
(19 Comments - 11/12/2008 12:58:50 pm)



Player

Current Projected
Brian Bruney
11 G
15 G
12 IP
16 IP
Dan Giese
11 G
15 G
21.7 IP
29 IP
Damaso Marte
5 G
7 G
4.7 IP
6 IP
Edwar Ramirez
37 G
49 G
40.7 IP
54 IP
Mariano Rivera
44 G
58 G
48.3 IP
64 IP
David Robertson
14 G
19 G
16.3 IP
22 IP
Jose Veras
38 G
50 G
38.7 IP
51 IP
Total
274 G
364 G
328.3 IP
435 IP

Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken



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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.


Wednesday, September 3, 2008

tRA and the 2008 Yankees

By way of Baseball Think Factory, I was introduced to a new stat called tRA.  What is tRA?  It’s a way to evaluate pitchers based on their peripheral stats and batted ball types allowed, developed by Graham MacAree who writes for Lookout Landing.  He also has a new site called StatCorner which looks like it’s going to be a cool site for more in-depth statistical analysis.

What tRA does is assign run values to each event a pitcher allows, but removing the defense.  It’s more in depth than FIP or DIPS which regress BABIP to league average, because it makes use of an important factor that FIP and DIPS ignore.  All batted ball types are NOT created equal.  A pitcher who allows more line drives should allow a higher BABIP, all other things being equal.  So ground balls, fly balls, and line drives are given average run values for those events.

tRA also assigns out values for each event that a pitcher allows.  The events are park-adjusted and out values are for what an average defense would do, so what tRA should give us is the net performance of a pitcher in a neutral park with an average defense behind him, but with more information than something like FIP, xFIP, or DIPS gives us.  If you want to read more about the actual run values and out values and park adjustments, it’s all discussed at this link.

Here’s what tRA says for the 2008 Yankees.

RV: Run value of all events.
OV: Out value of all events.
tRSAA: Runs saved above average using tRA
tRSAR: Runs saved above replacement using tRA
tWAR: Wins above replacement using tRA (tRSAR/10)

This doesn’t account for leverage, but Mo is still the best pitcher on the Yankees by this measure.  The Yankee pitching staff scores decently by this measure, but when you factor in a team defense that’s 48 runs below average overall by zone rating, you go from a run prevention unit that’s 15 wins better than replacement to one that’s 10 wins better.

And lastly, here’s how the AL teams stack up using this measure.

Seems about right.  The White Sox raw pitching stats may look middling, but when you factor in their ballpark they may be the best pitching staff in the league.  Toronto and Tampa have them beat in ERA+, but that’s most likely a function of defense (Toronto is +48!!! by zone rating as far as runs saved, and Tampa is +8, the White Sox are +3).

I think this a pretty cool way to look at pitching in more depth, but I’d be interested to see what everyone else thinks.  The methodology certainly seems sound to me.

--Posted at 12:19 am by SG / 83 Comments | - (71)



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