Monday, June 18, 2007
The Surge
I'm a bad Yankee fan. On May 28, the Yankees fell to 21-28 and I wrote them off. They lost the next game to fall to 21-29. Since then, the Yanks have played 17 games, and won 14 of them, moving themselves from 14.5 games back of the AL East division lead and 8.5 games back of the wild card lead to 8.5 games back in the AL East, and 3.5 games back in the wild card.How have they been doing it? It's a team effort, on offense, on defense, and with the pitching.
Here's how the offense has performed since May 30, sorted by batting runs by linear weights above average. These are not position-adjusted, but are compared to the league average for all players. Players are sorted from most to least valuable.
| Player | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RB | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR +/- |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 77 | 60 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 1 | .383 | .494 | .850 | 1.344 | 12 |
| Abreu, Bobby | 75 | 59 | 20 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | .407 | .533 | .678 | 1.211 | 9 |
| Cano, Robinson | 73 | 67 | 10 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | .343 | .397 | .567 | .964 | 4 |
| Posada, Jorge | 69 | 59 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | .305 | .377 | .559 | .936 | 4 |
| Jeter, Derek | 79 | 69 | 18 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | .319 | .392 | .493 | .885 | 3 |
| Matsui, Hideki | 76 | 65 | 13 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | .338 | .408 | .477 | .885 | 2 |
| Cabrera, Melky | 70 | 60 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | .300 | .357 | .417 | .774 | 0 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 0 |
| Giambi, Jason | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .200 | .250 | .450 | 0 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 48 | 44 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | .295 | .313 | .364 | .676 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | 70 | 64 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .250 | .314 | .391 | .705 | -1 |
| Nieves, Wil | 13 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .231 | .167 | .397 | -1 |
| Phelps, Josh | 29 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .310 | .231 | .541 | -2 |
| Total | 690 | 595 | 121 | 190 | 41 | 5 | 21 | 112 | 72 | 98 | 19 | 6 | .319 | .394 | .511 | .905 | 29 |
Almost everyone on the team has been average or above, but it's been the A-Rod and Abreu show. After a down May, Alex Rodriguez is on fire. For all the talk about how Johnny Damon has been hitting better as a DH, he really hasn't been that good. The big thing is that the whole team is hitting fairly consistently overall. Even Miguel Cairo hasn't been horrendous, although the more he plays the more he's going to cost the team on offense, and I say this as one of his biggest fans. Overall, they're 29 runs above average over the last 17 games on offense.
Of course, we all know that pitching wins championships™. Not really, but it sure helps. Here's how the pitching staff has done so far. RSAA is runs saved above average, which is simply the difference between how many runs a pitcher has given up compared to what an average pitcher would have in the same number of innings (earned and unearned runs). FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching ERA, which regresses a pitcher's non HR hits to average in an attempt to remove the factors out of their control. It's a good way to see if a pitcher is over or under-performing their peripherals and what we should expect from them going forward.
| Player | GS | GF | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/9 | RSAA |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 30.3 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 2.08 | 3.20 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 9 |
| Myers, Mike | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 3 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9.3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 3 |
| Vizcaino, Luis | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1.35 | 3.35 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 3 |
| Mussina, Mike | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18.7 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 3.86 | 4.65 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Clemens, Roger | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12.3 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 3.65 | 2.55 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 10.9 | 2 |
| Henn, Sean | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | 5.70 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Pettitte, Andy | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20.3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 4.43 | 3.74 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Britton, Chris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 6.87 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Bruney, Brian | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4.50 | 7.87 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Farnsworth, Kyle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5.14 | 3.20 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Proctor, Scott | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10.3 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 2.61 | 2.81 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Villone, Ron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 12.70 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | -2 |
| DeSalvo, Matt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 7.70 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2 |
| Clippard, Tyler | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17.0 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 7.94 | 7.44 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 5.8 | -6 |
| Total | 17 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 152.0 | 152 | 68 | 64 | 14 | 54 | 111 | 3.79 | 4.16 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 13 |
We all love Wang. Despite being the biggest fluke ever, he has been the Yankees most valuable pitcher since May 30, and last night he put on a clinic. He threw one changeup to Jose Reyes that Reyes fell over trying to hit, and did a masterful job of mixing in his secondary pitches last night, fanning a career-high 10 in the process. Roger Clemens followed up an ok start against Pittsburgh with a better one against a better team on Friday. RLYW whipping boy Luis Vizcaino has been outstanding of late, showing more life on his fastball and slider and has fanned 7 in 6.2 innings. The BB rate is still high, but he's working around that. The only pitchers who have been below average are Matt DeSalvo, Tyler Clippard, and Ron Villone. DeSalvo and Clippard have been optioned back to Scranton, and Villone's relegated to extreme mopup. Overall Yankee pitchers have saved 13 runs above average over the last 17 games.
The Yankees' defense has been a sore spot for most of the last few years. However, even that's been doing well over this recent stretch.
| Player | Pos | G | GS | Ch | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 17 | 17 | 53 | 151 | 35 | 58 | 0 | 17 | .906 | 48 | 5 | 4 | 35 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 15 | 15 | 45 | 139 | 12 | 29 | 1 | 3 | .778 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Cairo, Miguel | SS | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 72 |
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 3 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .900 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 15 | 13 | 37 | 129 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .892 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Basak, Chris | 3B | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 92 |
| Cabrera, Melky | RF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 16 | 15 | 32 | 143 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .875 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 3B | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .667 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -36 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 1B | 9 | 7 | 22 | 76 | 76 | 6 | 0 | 10 | .818 | 18 | -1 | -1 | -10 |
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 16 | 16 | 37 | 151 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .838 | 31 | -1 | -1 | -8 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | 1B | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .500 | 2 | -2 | -1 | -102 |
| Phelps, Josh | 1B | 10 | 7 | 9 | 56 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 6 | .667 | 6 | -2 | -1 | -35 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 16 | 15 | 57 | 142 | 26 | 48 | 3 | 15 | .754 | 43 | -3 | -2 | -24 |
| Total | 16 | 16 | 313 | 1056 | 330 | 153 | 8 | 58 | .827 | 259 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Player | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | PB | SBA | CS | CS% | CERA | RS | RS/162 |
| Nieves | 4 | 4 | 33 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.64 | -1 | -32 |
| Posada | 14 | 13 | 119 | 95 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 3.55 | -2 | -22 |
| Total | 18 | 17 | 152 | 122 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 3.79 | -3 | -25 |
Robinson Cano has disappointed on offense this year, but his defense as tracked by ZR has been outstanding. Over the last 17 games he's saved 4 runs above average, which would be the equivalent of saving 35 runs over a full season. To my eye, Miguel Cairo's defense at first has been much better than reflected in his ZR. The main thing is that overall, the team is playing close to average defense to support the pitching staff. The catchers haven't been very good defensively, but Posada and Nieves have combined for 82 hits and 22 doubles this year, so that's something.
The numbers above have led to the Yankees having a run differential of 121 runs scored and 68 allowed. That translates to a pythagorean record of 12-5, but they've gone 14-3 instead. So we can add at least some good fortune into the mix as well.
| Standings | W | L | RS | RA | WPct |
| Actual | 14 | 3 | 121 | 68 | 0.824 |
| Pythag | 12 | 5 | 121 | 68 | 0.742 |
Add it all up, and you have a team that's been on fire. They still have a lot of ground to make up, but I'll have an updated look at their playoff odds tomorrow.
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