Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The Santana/Yankees Trade Rumor
I'm not one to dwell much on trade rumors. I don't have 'sources' and 95% of the stuff we hear never comes to pass. But what the hell, it's the offseason and I've got blogger's block, so let's look at the trade rumor that was first posted at MLB Trade Rumors.Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand. They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana. That's a huge price, but doesn't seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.
I can't speak to MLB Trade Rumors' credibility, but they have a site and they do their thing and at the very least it spurs some discussion. Ignoring the site's credibility or lack thereof, it's an interesting question. Is Rowand + Santana + lots of money gone worth Wang/Kennedy/Melky?
As a fan, I don't like this trade. Santana should stay a Twin, and Wang, Kennedy and Melky should stay Yankees. It's more fun to root for players who broke through on your team and it's a shame that someone like Santana won't be able to stay a Twin. However, if Santana decides he wants to leave, then I'd rather see him come to the Yankees than go to the Red Sox or Mets.
So let's look at the pitching side of the deal first. Here are the CAIRO projections for Santana, Wang, and Kennedy.
| Player | AGE | TEAM | LG | Prole | Prole | ERA | ERA+ | G | W | L | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RS |
| Johan Santana | 29 | MIN | AL | S | S | 3.34 | 130 | 37 | 14 | 11 | 221 | 199 | 82 | 27 | 50 | 233 | 56 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 28 | NYA | AL | S | S | 3.93 | 114 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 202 | 210 | 88 | 12 | 56 | 95 | 38 |
| Ian Kennedy | 23 | NYA | AL | S | S | 4.36 | 103 | 53 | 13 | 8 | 190 | 192 | 92 | 23 | 75 | 146 | 27 |
In the table above, RS is runs saved above a replacement pitcher (5.62 ERA). 221 innings of Santana is worth about 5.6 wins above a replacement starter. 392 innings of Wang and Kennedy is worth about 6.5 wins. To replace the missing innings between Santana and Wang/Kennedy the Yankees need 171 innings of 5.17 ERA. That doesn't seem particularly difficult to find. Just avoid Sean Henn, Jeff Karstens and Kei Igawa.
How about losing Melky and replacing him with Rowand?
Rowand had a good year for Philly, but at age 30 it would be folly to expect the same going forward. Here's a look at three different CAIRO projections. The first two are for Rowand's baseline projection as a Phillie and then as a Yankee. For Melky it's his baseline projection as a Yankee.
| Player | Tm | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | pBR/650 |
| Aaron Rowand | PHI | 140 | 569 | 513 | 148 | 34 | 2 | 18 | 80 | 34 | 98 | 9 | 3 | .288 | .345 | .470 | .815 | 11 |
| Aaron Rowand | NYA | 140 | 569 | 513 | 147 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 77 | 34 | 98 | 9 | 3 | .286 | .344 | .457 | .800 | 8 |
| Melky Cabrera | NYA | 140 | 565 | 502 | 141 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 48 | 67 | 10 | 4 | .281 | .341 | .403 | .743 | -3 |
Swapping out Rowand for Melky projects to be somewhere around a one win upgrade on offense. On defense I have Rowand projected to be a +7 defender and Melky a +4, so that's another couple of runs but not enough to be a big difference.
Here's one last set of projections, Melky's range of CAIRO projections.
| CAIRO | Player | Tm | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | pBR/650 |
| 80% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 155 | 629 | 559 | 172 | 34 | 8 | 14 | 83 | 63 | 64 | 15 | 4 | .308 | .379 | .472 | .852 | 26 |
| 65% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 155 | 629 | 559 | 164 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 77 | 58 | 70 | 13 | 4 | .294 | .360 | .438 | .797 | 11 |
| Baseline | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 140 | 565 | 502 | 141 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 48 | 67 | 10 | 4 | .281 | .341 | .403 | .743 | -3 |
| 35% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 135 | 544 | 484 | 129 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 57 | 43 | 69 | 8 | 3 | .267 | .321 | .368 | .689 | -11 |
| 20% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 129 | 523 | 465 | 118 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 37 | 71 | 6 | 2 | .253 | .302 | .333 | .635 | -18 |
I like Melky a lot, but that 80% projectile looks very unlikely. However, I think his 65% projection is very achievable, in which case he'd be just as valuable as Rowand.
Ignoring contracts for a minute, Santana plus 171 innings of
Now, let's look at contracts. Any trade for Santana is going to include a contract extension at probably at least $17 million a year for four or five years. Rowand is going to probably get at least a Gary Matthews Jr. type contract, 5 years and $50 million. Could be more, could be less, but that seems like what the market will bear for a good defensive CF who had a solid offensive season.
It just doesn't make sense. I think Santana's great. I'd love to have him as a Yankee if he leaves the Twins, but adding $25 million in payroll for one win in 2008 just doesn't seem rational. Not when you are likely going to have to overpay to keep some combination of A-Rod, Posada, and Mo. Of course adding Santana makes the Yankees a better postseason team if they make it, because Santana projects to be one of the top two or three pitchers in the AL. He's also just a year older than Wang, but with a lot more mileage on his arm.
Besides, the Twins have lots of young pitching on the way. I'd think they would rather get young position players than pitchers.
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