Thursday, August 6, 2009
The Importance of This Red Sox Series
You may or may not be aware that there’s a somewhat important series coming up between the Yankees and the Red Sox. After a 5-4 road trip where the Yankees were able to maintain a 2.5 game lead, here’s a look at how things stand.
Yankees: 65-42, 58.7% Div, 29.4% WC, 88.1% PL (chances at winning division, wild card, and making playoffs respectively)
Red Sox: 62-44, 36.7% Div, 41.4% WC, 78.1% PL
So let’s run through the possible outcomes:
Red Sox sweep
Yankees: 65-46, 31.4% Div, 45.4% WC, 76.8% PL
Red Sox: 66-44, 62.1% Div, 28.0% WC, 90.0% PL
Me breaking lots of stuff.
Red Sox take three of four
Yankees: 66-45, 43.4% Div, 42.5% WC, 85.9% PL
Red Sox: 65-45, 50.2% Div, 38.1% WC, 88.4% PL
Me breaking a fair amount of stuff.
Red Sox and Yankees split four
Yankees: 67-44, 60.7% Div, 30.3% WC, 91.0% PL
Red Sox: 64-46, 33.6% Div, 48.1% WC, 81.6% PL
Me breaking a thing or two.
Yankees take three of four
Yankees: 68-43, 69.4% Div, 24.8% WC, 94.2% PL
Red Sox: 63-47, 25.5% Div, 51.4% WC, 76.9% PL
Me slightly happy.
Yankees sweep
Yankees: 69-42, 80.2% Div, 15.9% WC, 96.1% PL
Red Sox: 62-48, 15.6% Div, 53.4% WC, 69.0% PL
Me very happy.
The Yankees realistically don’t have to win this series to remain solidly in the playoff hunt. Even if they get swept, their playoff odds still look to be around 77%. Split, and they are better off than they were entering the series.
However, after dropping eight of eight to a team that I’m very comfortable is no better than them, I think they need to win this series just to shut some people up.
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