Friday, August 21, 2009
The Importance of The Upcoming Boston Series, Part Deux
About two weeks ago, I looked at the Yankees/Red Sox series using revised projections and pitching matchups to predict that the Yankees would win 2.3 of the 4 scheduled games. Of course the Yankees ended up sweeping Boston to open up a commanding lead in the AL East.At this point, up by six games in the loss column with 41 games to play, the division is the Yankees' to lose. If The Yankees go 21-20, they end the season at 97-75, and Boston would have to go 28-14 to tie them. However, if the Red Sox are able to sweep this series, their task becomes a lot easier.
Realistically, as long as the Yankees win one of the three games, they should be in good shape over the rest of the season, but let's see how the games break down. I'm going to use the best starting lineups for both teams, as well as the top relievers, even though we know bench players and lesser relievers will likely see some time as well.
| Lineup | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Outs |
| derek jeter | 5 | .316 | .381 | .446 | .732 | 3 |
| johnny damon | 5 | .283 | .358 | .470 | .743 | 3 |
| mark teixeira | 5 | .287 | .384 | .541 | .862 | 3 |
| alex rodriguez | 5 | .281 | .395 | .531 | .871 | 3 |
| hideki matsui | 5 | .275 | .361 | .476 | .732 | 3 |
| jorge posada | 5 | .282 | .367 | .477 | .751 | 3 |
| robinson cano | 5 | .304 | .338 | .481 | .632 | 3 |
| nick swisher | 4 | .242 | .360 | .457 | .569 | 3 |
| melky cabrera | 4 | .268 | .326 | .399 | .464 | 3 |
| total | 43 | .282 | .363 | .475 | 6.4 | 27 |
| Lineup | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Outs |
| jacoby ellsbury | 5 | .299 | .349 | .416 | .679 | 3 |
| dustin pedroia | 5 | .304 | .369 | .453 | .730 | 3 |
| victor martinez | 5 | .298 | .374 | .462 | .737 | 3 |
| kevin youkilis | 5 | .297 | .401 | .519 | .852 | 3 |
| jason bay | 5 | .270 | .379 | .516 | .762 | 3 |
| david ortiz | 5 | .261 | .367 | .518 | .801 | 3 |
| mike lowell | 5 | .285 | .339 | .473 | .686 | 3 |
| j.d. drew | 4 | .264 | .378 | .462 | .592 | 2 |
| alex gonzalez | 4 | .268 | .316 | .409 | .461 | 3 |
| total | 43 | .283 | .364 | .470 | 6.3 | 27 |
The lineups are essentially the same, with the Yankee lineup projected to score around 6.4 runs per 27 outs and the Red Sox lineup projected to score around 6.3. Now onto the pitching matchups.
Friday, August 21: Pettitte vs. Penny
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| andy pettitte | 6.00 | 3.23 |
| mariano rivera | 1.00 | 0.27 |
| phil hughes | 1.00 | 0.52 |
| phil coke | 1.00 | 0.68 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.69 |
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| brad penny | 5.50 | 3.28 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1.00 | 0.31 |
| hideki okajima | 1.00 | 0.35 |
| manny delcarmen | 1.00 | 0.46 |
| ramon ramirez | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.77 |
I won't run through all the math, you can go to the linked post in the beginning if you want to see how it works, but thanks to the home field advantage, Boston rates as a slight favorite in this game, as the Yankees' probability to win this game is 46.9%.
Saturday, August 22: Burnett vs. Tazawa
I didn't have Tazawa projected this year, so I'm using his MLE and his MLB performance as his projection.
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| a.j. burnett | 6.40 | 3.12 |
| mariano rivera | 1.00 | 0.27 |
| phil hughes | 1.00 | 0.52 |
| david robertson | 0.60 | 0.24 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.15 |
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| junichi tazawa | 5.00 | 2.70 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1.00 | 0.31 |
| hideki okajima | 1.00 | 0.35 |
| manny delcarmen | 1.00 | 0.46 |
| ramon ramirez | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.56 |
The Yankees rate as slight favorites in this win, as their win probability is 50.3%.
Sunday, August 23: Sabathia vs. The Guardian of Playing the Game the Right Way
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| cc sabathia | 6.90 | 2.96 |
| mariano rivera | 1.00 | 0.27 |
| phil hughes | 1.00 | 0.52 |
| david robertson | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| total | 9.00 | 3.79 |
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| josh beckett | 6.80 | 3.26 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1.00 | 0.31 |
| hideki okajima | 1.00 | 0.35 |
| manny delcarmen | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.02 |
Another close one, with the Yankees as very slight underdogs with a win probability of 48.2%.
Regardless of the win probabilities, I think the Yankees should be able to take one of the first two games, and they have a decent chance of taking both. The Sunday game is a tossup, as both pitchers are capable of shutting down the other team.
Now, bear in mind that I have it on good authority that you CAN'T PREDICT BASEBALL. So I have no idea what will actually happen.
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