Thursday, October 23, 2008
The Case for Mark Teixeira
The Yankees have a gaping hole at first base with the expected buyout of Jason Giambi’s contract. Fortunately for them, there’s an available free agent who would fill the hole nicely. I’m obviously talking about Mark Teixeira.
Teixeira’s a solid player on both offense and defense, and he’s going to be 29 in 2009 which means his big decline years are still probably a few years away. He won’t be cheap, and there’ll be quite a few suitors out there for him, but here’s a look at how he projecs as a Yankee in 2009.
%: Percentile forecast (80% = optimistic, 20% = pessimistic)
PA: Plate appearances
AB: At bats
R: Runs
H: Hits
2B: Doubles
3B: Triples
HR: Home runs
RBI: Runs batted in
BB: Walks
HBP: Hit by pitches
K: Strikeouts
SB: Stolen bases
CS: Caught stealings
AVG: Batting average
OBP: On base percentage
SLG: Slugging percentage
OPS: OBP + SLG
OPS+: Park-adjusted OPS relative to league average ( > 100 is better than league average)
pBRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement using linear weights
Right now the Yankees are looking at some combination of Juan Miranda/Shelley Duncan/Wilson Betemit at first base. That’s basically replacement level. Adding Teixeira probably means a four win upgrade on offense alone.
The Yankees can’t just sign Teixeira for one year, but he projects to age pretty well. Although he’s supposedly looking for a ten year deal, I am not going to forecast out that far. Honestly, forecasting more than a few years in advance is sketchy enough, but it’s part of what the Yankees have to do when looking at signing someone. So here’s CAIRO’s forecast for Teixeria for 2009-2015.
The assumption for $$ (value) here is that a marginal win is worth $5 million to the Yankees in 2009, and then increases by $250K per season. This forecast is probably overly optimistic, especially in the last few seasons, but it says that Teixeira would be worth around $25 million $22 million per season in total.
The valuation above ignores defense, but that’s also a positive for Teixeira.
Inn : Defensive innings at position
PO : Putouts
A : Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double plays
PM: Plays made
CH: Fieldable chances
ZR: Zone rating (PM / CH)
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender
Diff: PM - PM by an average defender
RS : Runs saved (Diff times run value at position for a play not made)
RS/162: Runs saved pro-rated to 162 games.
As you can see, Teixeira’s fluctuated between very good and slightly below average, but he projects to be around 6-7 runs above average in 2009. That should probably decline by about a run per season going forward, which puts him at no worse than average by 2015. That also adds a bit more value to Teixeira going forward, figure another 15 runs or so, or another $7 million on the bottom line. That boosts his value up to around $23 million per season.
Here are CAIRO’s top ten projected first basemen for 2009 on a rate basis, based on offense plus defense.
BR/650: Non position-adjusted raw battng runs using linear weights pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
RS: Runs saved above an average 1B based on zone rating
These are the neutral projections, not adjusted for park or league, which is why Teixeira’s numbers differ slightly from what’s in this percentile projection. If you can’t get Pujols, might as well go for the second best first baseman in baseball, right?
C.C. Sabathia projects to be more valuable than Teixeria by a handful of runs, but if I had to choose one or the other, Teixeira is probaby the better bet. Any contract in the 7 year, $180 million $160 million range seems to be fair value. Hopefully the Yankees understand that as well.
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