Wednesday, March 4, 2009
The Brett Gardner Skillset
It's been pretty well documented that Brett Gardner's minor league performance may not translate to the majors. It's generally assumed that a high OBP/low SLG player like Gardner will struggle in the majors because without some power, MLB pitchers will be more likely to challenge him. Combine that with a high strikeout rate and it doesn't seem very likely that Gardner will be able to hit enough to be an asset in CF even with plus defense and baserunning.To see if this is true, I took a look at some minor league data. I have minor league data going back to 1978, although it's not complete, it does include all the minor league numbers for anyone who made it to the majors and a good chunk of minor leaguers as well.
In his minor league career, Gardner has hit .291/.389/.385 over 1738 plate appearances. So I ran a query for all minor leaguers who had a career OBP greater than .349 combined with a career SLG of less than .400 over at least 600 PA. I got a list of 360 unique players. Of those 360 players, 78 made the majors. Here's the list and their career minor league and major league PA, AVG, OBP, SLG and wOBA.
| PlayerName | mPA | mAVG | mOBP | mSLG | mwOBA | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
| Marson_Louis_31589 | 1631 | .273 | .370 | .391 | .342 | 4 | .500 | .500 | 1.250 | .713 | |
| Span_Denard_30739 | 2331 | .287 | .357 | .358 | .324 | 403 | .294 | .387 | .432 | .360 | |
| Cannizaro_Andy_28843 | 3529 | .287 | .361 | .379 | .333 | 10 | .222 | .300 | .556 | .357 | |
| Prado_Martin_30616 | 2100 | .300 | .353 | .393 | .332 | 361 | .307 | .363 | .432 | .350 | |
| Escobar_Yunel_30257 | 694 | .285 | .366 | .378 | .335 | 933 | .303 | .373 | .420 | .350 | |
| Lofton_Kenny_24623 | 1582 | .300 | .370 | .379 | .339 | 9162 | .299 | .372 | .423 | .349 | |
| Hatteberg_Scott_25551 | 1758 | .260 | .361 | .385 | .338 | 4861 | .273 | .361 | .410 | .340 | |
| Kendall_Jason_27206 | 1459 | .301 | .366 | .398 | .343 | 7661 | .293 | .371 | .388 | .339 | |
| Roberts_Brian_28407 | 1182 | .280 | .377 | .368 | .339 | 4335 | .284 | .355 | .416 | .338 | |
| Furcal_Rafael_28361 | 1110 | .309 | .380 | .388 | .347 | 5149 | .286 | .352 | .412 | .336 | |
| Young_Eric_24610 | 1742 | .298 | .384 | .394 | .352 | 6912 | .283 | .359 | .390 | .335 | |
| Morgan_Nyjer_29404 | 2243 | .293 | .370 | .365 | .334 | 291 | .296 | .351 | .397 | .333 | |
| Schumaker_Skip_29254 | 3197 | .300 | .363 | .397 | .337 | 862 | .299 | .350 | .404 | .332 | |
| Theriot_Ryan_29196 | 2212 | .274 | .355 | .342 | .318 | 1413 | .290 | .362 | .369 | .331 | |
| Figgins_Chone_28512 | 2548 | .282 | .356 | .396 | .335 | 3619 | .288 | .357 | .381 | .330 | |
| Castillo_Luis_27649 | 2099 | .300 | .399 | .353 | .349 | 6499 | .292 | .367 | .355 | .329 | |
| Offerman_Jose_25150 | 2885 | .298 | .390 | .396 | .354 | 6509 | .273 | .360 | .373 | .328 | |
| Machado_Alejandro_30067 | 3416 | .294 | .374 | .365 | .336 | 6 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .327 | |
| Hanigan_Ryan_29449 | 2370 | .303 | .390 | .385 | .350 | 109 | .274 | .367 | .368 | .323 | |
| Hansen_Dave_25166 | 3197 | .287 | .373 | .393 | .346 | 2096 | .260 | .360 | .369 | .322 | |
| Easley_Damion_25518 | 1654 | .274 | .351 | .393 | .334 | 6169 | .253 | .329 | .404 | .322 | |
| Pierre_Juan_28351 | 1412 | .331 | .376 | .393 | .346 | 5538 | .300 | .346 | .371 | .321 | |
| Cedeno_Roger_27257 | 2276 | .295 | .373 | .388 | .343 | 3524 | .273 | .340 | .371 | .316 | |
| Blanco_Gregor_30662 | 3485 | .277 | .376 | .382 | .343 | 513 | .251 | .366 | .309 | .316 | |
| Palmeiro_Orlando_25222 | 2780 | .290 | .361 | .365 | .330 | 2649 | .274 | .351 | .350 | .316 | |
| Izturis_Maicer_29476 | 1620 | .286 | .359 | .376 | .329 | 1710 | .270 | .335 | .376 | .315 | |
| McCracken_Quinton_25643 | 2485 | .299 | .367 | .391 | .341 | 2720 | .274 | .336 | .374 | .314 | |
| Tolbert_Matt_30075 | 2458 | .282 | .350 | .399 | .332 | 121 | .283 | .322 | .389 | .313 | |
| Dallimore_Brian _26983 | 3659 | .289 | .351 | .396 | .332 | 56 | .260 | .321 | .380 | .311 | |
| Flores_Jose_26843 | 4568 | .278 | .373 | .359 | .335 | 10 | .143 | .400 | .143 | .309 | |
| Navarro_Dioner_30721 | 1784 | .274 | .352 | .398 | .331 | 1400 | .263 | .327 | .376 | .308 | |
| Vazquez_Ramon_27974 | 3605 | .271 | .370 | .391 | .342 | 1954 | .257 | .328 | .358 | .304 | |
| Goodwin_Tom_25046 | 3036 | .284 | .350 | .360 | .322 | 4242 | .268 | .332 | .339 | .304 | |
| Pena_Elvis_28018 | 5355 | .268 | .361 | .351 | .325 | 58 | .245 | .345 | .306 | .304 | |
| Jackson_Damian_26882 | 3641 | .267 | .351 | .385 | .330 | 2492 | .243 | .323 | .356 | .303 | |
| Taveras_Willy_29945 | 1845 | .303 | .391 | .384 | .352 | 2129 | .283 | .331 | .337 | .302 | |
| Mendoza_Carlos_29186 | 5422 | .280 | .361 | .368 | .331 | 29 | .182 | .379 | .182 | .300 | |
| Hannahan_Jack_29284 | 2954 | .273 | .363 | .394 | .336 | 676 | .229 | .318 | .357 | .299 | |
| Guerrero_Wilton_27326 | 3291 | .317 | .362 | .392 | .337 | 1751 | .282 | .308 | .369 | .298 | |
| Macias_Drew_30382 | 2960 | .270 | .355 | .389 | .331 | 24 | .200 | .250 | .500 | .298 | |
| Pennington_Cliff_30848 | 2557 | .290 | .382 | .396 | .350 | 115 | .242 | .339 | .293 | .297 | |
| Fox_Andy_25945 | 3689 | .250 | .352 | .378 | .330 | 2176 | .239 | .324 | .338 | .295 | |
| Rodriguez_Luis_29399 | 3544 | .274 | .356 | .358 | .324 | 716 | .257 | .316 | .343 | .295 | |
| Macias_Jose_27054 | 3229 | .267 | .353 | .361 | .325 | 1761 | .256 | .298 | .371 | .294 | |
| Punto_Nick_28437 | 2544 | .265 | .361 | .338 | .322 | 2061 | .252 | .319 | .332 | .294 | |
| Amezaga_Alfredo_28506 | 2252 | .288 | .357 | .388 | .332 | 1382 | .253 | .313 | .345 | .294 | |
| Bruntlett_Eric_28578 | 3056 | .272 | .365 | .358 | .329 | 765 | .240 | .315 | .344 | .293 | |
| Gathright_Joey_30063 | 1724 | .315 | .398 | .365 | .351 | 1264 | .263 | .328 | .304 | .292 | |
| Vizcaino_Jose_24923 | 1437 | .281 | .349 | .335 | .314 | 5228 | .267 | .315 | .344 | .291 | |
| Owens_Jerry_29633 | 2478 | .288 | .356 | .353 | .318 | 411 | .268 | .321 | .312 | .290 | |
| Casilla_Alexi_30883 | 1675 | .294 | .370 | .367 | .335 | 629 | .261 | .310 | .336 | .290 | |
| Tyner_Jason_28238 | 3871 | .308 | .370 | .363 | .332 | 1447 | .275 | .314 | .323 | .287 | |
| Johnson_Mark_27649 | 3209 | .253 | .382 | .355 | .340 | 1088 | .216 | .311 | .314 | .285 | |
| Ojeda_Augie_27383 | 3582 | .261 | .350 | .356 | .320 | 820 | .235 | .320 | .310 | .283 | |
| Strong_Jamal_28707 | 3802 | .296 | .393 | .359 | .346 | 26 | .227 | .308 | .318 | .283 | |
| Beamon_Trey_27071 | 3685 | .285 | .356 | .390 | .334 | 170 | .253 | .306 | .310 | .281 | |
| Robinson_Kerry_26940 | 4825 | .306 | .360 | .388 | .335 | 782 | .267 | .303 | .337 | .280 | |
| Bergeron_Peter_28438 | 4300 | .284 | .357 | .390 | .334 | 1229 | .226 | .303 | .308 | .279 | |
| Bourn_Michael_30312 | 2568 | .295 | .394 | .387 | .354 | 648 | .237 | .299 | .313 | .276 | |
| Ardoin_Danny_27218 | 3418 | .254 | .351 | .395 | .333 | 480 | .206 | .296 | .307 | .271 | |
| Gwynn_Anthony_30228 | 3284 | .289 | .361 | .364 | .328 | 263 | .248 | .300 | .298 | .270 | |
| Gardner_Brett_30552 | 1738 | .291 | .389 | .385 | .350 | 138 | .228 | .283 | .299 | .264 | |
| Bernadina_Rogearvin_30845 | 3025 | .265 | .351 | .385 | .330 | 85 | .211 | .294 | .250 | .257 | |
| Gonzalez_Andy_29935 | 2793 | .254 | .351 | .350 | .319 | 244 | .188 | .291 | .258 | .257 | |
| Getz_Chris_30558 | 1723 | .287 | .356 | .395 | .332 | 7 | .286 | .286 | .286 | .257 | |
| Meyers_Chad_27614 | 3805 | .289 | .387 | .400 | .356 | 235 | .208 | .281 | .259 | .250 | |
| De Aza_Alejandro_30783 | 1663 | .271 | .360 | .376 | .332 | 153 | .229 | .261 | .313 | .249 | |
| Pena_Brayan_29958 | 2474 | .303 | .353 | .398 | .332 | 131 | .228 | .252 | .315 | .245 | |
| Torres_Andres_28516 | 3917 | .271 | .359 | .396 | .338 | 279 | .210 | .258 | .276 | .241 | |
| Crabbe_Callix_30361 | 3227 | .276 | .370 | .382 | .339 | 39 | .176 | .282 | .206 | .240 | |
| Duncan_Jeff_28833 | 2410 | .286 | .385 | .399 | .352 | 174 | .182 | .276 | .227 | .229 | |
| Kelly_Donald_29266 | 3084 | .282 | .354 | .378 | .327 | 32 | .148 | .281 | .148 | .227 | |
| Carlin_Luke_29575 | 1809 | .255 | .363 | .353 | .327 | 105 | .149 | .238 | .234 | .222 | |
| Tuiasosopo_Matt_31542 | 2205 | .270 | .358 | .398 | .336 | 47 | .159 | .213 | .250 | .209 | |
| Erickson_Matt_27605 | 3515 | .298 | .390 | .391 | .354 | 6 | .167 | .167 | .167 | .150 | |
| Bernier_Doug_29396 | 2649 | .255 | .369 | .330 | .325 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| Labandeira_Josh_28911 | 3457 | .287 | .357 | .399 | .336 | 14 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| Thompson_Rich_28968 | 3471 | .277 | .356 | .364 | .325 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
Minor league stats are prefaced with a lower case "m".
I didn't adjust these stats for context. Park factors, league level and other things could skew these numbers, so keep that in mind when looking at the list.
As you can see from this list, it's not a particularly impressive group. However, there are a few guys who ended up as useful players, Kenny Lofton, Brian Roberts, Eric Young, Chone Figgins, Luis Castillo, Jose Offerman and Juan Pierre among them.
Here's that same list of players(plus Gardner) and their minor league BB and K to PA percentages.
| PlayerName | BB/PA | K/PA |
| Escobar_Yunel_30257 | 10.5% | 15.0% |
| Lofton_Kenny_24623 | 10.1% | 16.8% |
| Hatteberg_Scott_25551 | 13.7% | 14.6% |
| Kendall_Jason_27206 | 9.3% | 5.8% |
| Roberts_Brian_28407 | 13.4% | 12.7% |
| Furcal_Rafael_28361 | 10.3% | 11.6% |
| Young_Eric_24610 | 12.2% | 6.5% |
| Schumaker_Skip_29254 | 8.8% | 12.7% |
| Theriot_Ryan_29196 | 10.8% | 11.2% |
| Figgins_Chone_28512 | 9.9% | 16.5% |
| Castillo_Luis_27649 | 14.2% | 12.9% |
| Offerman_Jose_25150 | 13.1% | 15.2% |
| Hansen_Dave_25166 | 12.0% | 11.4% |
| Easley_Damion_25518 | 10.5% | 12.1% |
| Pierre_Juan_28351 | 6.5% | 5.3% |
| Cedeno_Roger_27257 | 11.1% | 14.0% |
| Blanco_Gregor_30662 | 13.0% | 20.3% |
| Palmeiro_Orlando_25222 | 9.9% | 7.4% |
| Izturis_Maicer_29476 | 9.7% | 10.9% |
| McCracken_Quinton_25643 | 9.7% | 13.8% |
| Navarro_Dioner_30721 | 10.4% | 12.9% |
| Vazquez_Ramon_27974 | 13.6% | 15.6% |
| Goodwin_Tom_25046 | 9.3% | 13.9% |
| Jackson_Damian_26882 | 11.3% | 17.8% |
| Taveras_Willy_29945 | 10.3% | 15.7% |
| Hannahan_Jack_29284 | 12.0% | 18.6% |
| Guerrero_Wilton_27326 | 6.4% | 12.1% |
| Fox_Andy_25945 | 13.4% | 18.5% |
| Rodriguez_Luis_29399 | 10.9% | 8.3% |
| Macias_Jose_27054 | 11.6% | 10.0% |
| Punto_Nick_28437 | 13.1% | 15.3% |
| Amezaga_Alfredo_28506 | 8.9% | 14.8% |
| Bruntlett_Eric_28578 | 11.2% | 13.3% |
| Gathright_Joey_30063 | 10.2% | 14.8% |
| Vizcaino_Jose_24923 | 9.5% | 10.6% |
| Casilla_Alexi_30883 | 9.6% | 10.7% |
| Tyner_Jason_28238 | 8.4% | 8.3% |
| Johnson_Mark_27649 | 17.0% | 13.2% |
| Ojeda_Augie_27383 | 10.6% | 8.8% |
| Robinson_Kerry_26940 | 7.6% | 9.9% |
| Bergeron_Peter_28438 | 10.1% | 17.0% |
| Bourn_Michael_30312 | 13.4% | 18.6% |
| Gardner_Brett_30552 | 14.0% | 17.4% |
Gardner's BB/PA rate ranks third among this group, behind Mark Johnson and Luis Castillo. A quick glance at Johnson's Baseball Reference page isn't very assuring. Castillo's probably had about as good a career as a player who has slugged .355 in his career could have, thanks to a career .367 OBP, good baserunning and solid defense at 2B.
Gardner's K/PA rate is sixth among this group, behind Gregor Blanco, Jack Hannahan, Michael Bourn, Andy Fox and Damian Jackson. None of those players has been any good in the majors, although Blanco and Bourn are still young enough to possibly change that. This is probably my biggest area of concern for how Gardner's game will translate to the majors.
The best player on this list is probably Lofton, who was able to develop enough power to put up an OPS+ of at least 100 in 13 of his 17 big league seasons. Like Gardner, he debuted at age 24 and didn't impress (hitting .203/.253/.216 over 79 PA in his first season).
Could Gardner become Lofton? I suppose it's possible, but it's also highly unlikely. So then the question becomes how good his defense and baserunning are. I'll look at that in more depth when I start my player projection previews coming up in the next few weeks.
And on a completely different note, as if Alex Rodriguez's offseason couldn't get any worse, the AP is reporting that he is going to see a hip specialist about a cyst.
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