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Monday, March 30, 2009

The 2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Edition

Continuing off where the American League Edition left off, here are the results for the Senior Circuit.

Here are the results for the Senior Circuit.

To read all the caveats and disclaimers that you should keep in mind when looking at these, check the main post.

To see the individual projection systems, go to these links:
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CHONE edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Hardball Times edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - ZiPS edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO edition

And here are the combined standings of all 6000 projections:

NL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
NYN	88.1	73.9	832	764	2409.0	803.8	82 - 94	791 - 873	726 - 802	88	89	2539	1808	1243	335	75	0	93	88 - 97
ATL	86.7	75.3	784	727	1793.8	795.1	80 - 93	745 - 823	690 - 764	87	88	1907	1940	1620	438	95	0	87	84 - 91
PHI	86.0	76.0	816	772	1654.8	775.7	80 - 92	776 - 855	733 - 811	86	85	1769	1879	1692	489	171	0	82	79 - 86
WAS	72.7	89.3	763	844	64.7	52.2	66 - 79	725 - 801	804 - 884	73	74	76	217	624	2423	2660	0	75	71 - 80
FLA	72.5	89.5	736	813	80.4	53.5	66 - 79	698 - 773	773 - 853	73	72	89	252	678	2290	2691	0	68	63 - 73
NL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
CHN	91.5	70.5	815	713	3933.8	534.5	85 - 98	776 - 855	675 - 750	92	93	4057	1248	466	159	58	12	93	89 - 98
STL	84.1	77.9	771	740	1036.5	728.9	78 - 90	732 - 810	702 - 778	84	85	1125	2060	1519	778	392	126	87	83 - 90
MIL	81.9	80.1	778	769	636.8	517.8	75 - 88	740 - 815	730 - 808	82	82	699	1619	1605	1109	655	313	82	78 - 85
CIN	77.8	84.2	739	769	261.5	208.4	72 - 84	702 - 776	730 - 807	78	78	291	752	1359	1817	1205	576	77	74 - 81
HOU	73.0	89.0	729	806	70.8	79.3	67 - 79	691 - 766	766 - 846	73	75	80	347	676	1233	2045	1619	73	69 - 76
PIT	69.8	92.2	731	842	60.5	43.7	63 - 76	693 - 769	801 - 883	70	71	66	194	407	886	1488	2959	66	61 - 71
NL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
LAN	87.8	74.2	805	743	3114.0	430.8	81 - 94	766 - 845	705 - 781	88	88	3246	1560	701	368	125	0	91	87 - 96
ARI	83.7	78.3	735	715	1559.7	428.8	77 - 90	698 - 772	677 - 753	84	82	1662	1751	1229	836	522	0	85	82 - 89
SF	79.3	82.7	712	725	554.0	211.5	73 - 86	675 - 749	687 - 763	79	80	609	1157	1627	1578	1029	0	81	77 - 84
COL	79.0	83.0	798	818	577.7	233.4	73 - 85	757 - 838	778 - 858	79	79	630	1162	1475	1563	1170	0	76	73 - 80
SD	74.5	87.5	714	773	194.7	102.7	68 - 81	677 - 751	735 - 810	74	74	218	555	978	1502	2747	0	71	66 - 75
Avg WC	89.5

Legend
W:Average wins over 6000 seasons
L:Average losses over 6000 seasons
RF:Average runs for(scored) over 6000 seasons
RA:Average runs allowed over 6000 seasons
Div: Number of division titles won over 6000 seasons. Ties are split (ie, if two teams tie for a division, they each get 0.5 Div)
WC: Number of wild cards won. Same deal with the ties here
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation either way
Std RF: Runs for within one standard deviation either way
Std RA: Runs allowed within one standard deviation either way
Median: Median win total
Mode: Mode win total
1: Number of times in first place
2: Number of times in second place
3: Number of times in third place
4: Number of times in fourth place
5: Number of times in fifth place
6: Number of times in sixth place
APW: Average placing wins. This is the average win total to take each place in the division
Std APW: APW within one standard deviation
Avg WC: Average victory total of the wild card winner over 1000 seasons.

I'll run through the divisions and teams briefly:



Legend
Avg Prj W: Average projected wins
2008 Actual W: Actual wins in 2008
2008 PythagenPat W: 2008 PythagenPat Wins
W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 Actual W
PythagenPat W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 PythagenPat W
Avg Prj RF: Average projected runs scored
2008 RF: 2008 runs scored
RF Diff: Avg Prj RF - 2008 RF
Avg RA: Average projected runs allowed
2008 RA: 2008 runs allowed
RA Diff: Avg Prj RA - 2008 RA
RF+RA Diff: Projected run differential delta
Division %: Percentage of times the team won their division
Wild Card %: Percentage of time the team won the wild card
Playoff %: Division% plus Wild Card %
High W: Higest average W projection and system
Low W: Lowest average W projection and system
Gap: Gap between High W and Low W
Avg Div Plc: Average place in division

NL East
Team: New York Mets
Avg Prj W: 88
2008 Actual W: 89
2008 PythagenPat W: 90
W Diff: -1
PythagenPat W Diff: -2
Avg Prj RF: 832
2008 RF: 799
RF Diff: 33
Avg RA: 765
2008 RA: 715
RA Diff: 50
RF+RA Diff: -17
Division %: 40%
Wild Card %: 13%
Playoff %: 54%
High W: 91 (zips)
Low W: 85 (marcel)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: Jose Reyes and David Wright may not be done improving. Daniel Murphy's projections are somewhat uninspiring but he looked good in his time in MLB and may outperform them.
Why they might be worse than projected: Livan Hernandez. Tim Redding.

Team: Atlanta
Avg Prj W: 87
2008 Actual W: 72
2008 PythagenPat W: 78
W Diff: 15
PythagenPat W Diff: 9
Avg Prj RF: 784
2008 RF: 753
RF Diff: 31
Avg RA: 727
2008 RA: 778
RA Diff: -51
RF+RA Diff: 82
Division %: 30%
Wild Card %: 13%
Playoff %: 43%
High W: 88 (pecota)
Low W: 85 (chone)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: Their rotation looks pretty solid with the additions of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami. They've got Tommy Hanson in the wings if they need reinforcement there and he's emerged as one of the better prospects in baseball (#4 on Baseball America's top 100, #13 on Baseball Prospectus's top 100), Jeff Francouer has been pretty awful the last two seasons, but he has the physical talent to become useful, although he'll have to do it soon.

Why they might be worse than projected: Tom Glavine may not be any better than replacement level now but may pitch more than he deserves to due to his history with the Braves. Francouer may get more playing time than he deserves based on his popularity with the fans and his tools. The health of Chipper Jones, who has hit .342/.435/.592 over the last three seasons, is an annual concern. The health of their top two relievers (Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez) is one as well.

Team: Philadelphia
Avg Prj W: 86
2008 Actual W: 92
2008 PythagenPat W: 93
W Diff: -6
PythagenPat W Diff: -7
Avg Prj RF: 816
2008 RF: 799
RF Diff: 17
Avg RA: 772
2008 RA: 680
RA Diff: 92
RF+RA Diff: -75
Division %: 27%
Wild Card %: 13%
Playoff %: 40%
High W: 89 (zips)
Low W: 83 (marcel)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Jamie Moyer breaks projection systems. His average projected ERA is 4.72 which is a full run worse than last year. The difference between his 2008 and his projected 2009 if he makes 30 starts would be somewhere between two and three wins. Carlos Carrasco's projections aren't very impressive, but he's only 22 and has the talent to be a very good starter.

Why they might be worse than projected: Swapping Pat Burrell for Raul Ibanez may make them a little bit too left-handed and could pose some potential matchup problems. It's also a slight defensive downgrade. Cole Hamels's spring training elbow scare may be a precursor to something that would cause him to miss some time. Chase Utley's recovery from his hip surgery may necessitate some missed time.

Team: Florida
Avg Prj W: 73
2008 Actual W: 84
2008 PythagenPat W: 81
W Diff: -11
PythagenPat W Diff: -8
Avg Prj RF: 735
2008 RF: 770
RF Diff: -35
Avg RA: 813
2008 RA: 767
RA Diff: 46
RF+RA Diff: -81
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 66 (zips)
Gap: 10
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: They've got a good amount of young talent on both sides of the ball. A rotation of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Miller and Chris Volstad is long on potential.

Why they might be worse than projected: Matt Lindstrom's shoulder looks like it may be a concern. They'll be relying on a lot of players with sketchy health in their recent past. Hanley Ramirez has played through shoulder issues the last few seasons but at some point he may not be able to.

Team: Washington
Avg Prj W: 73
2008 Actual W: 59
2008 PythagenPat W: 62
W Diff: 14
PythagenPat W Diff: 11
Avg Prj RF: 763
2008 RF: 641
RF Diff: 122
Avg RA: 844
2008 RA: 825
RA Diff: 19
RF+RA Diff: 103
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 69 (hbt)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Maybe Cristian Guzman will actually be the MVP candidate PECOTA seems to think he is. Maybe Nick Johnson will play in more than five games.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their pitching staff is a little frightening.



NL Central


Team: Chicago Cubs
Avg Prj W: 91
2008 Actual W: 97
2008 PythagenPat W: 99
W Diff: -6
PythagenPat W Diff: -8
Avg Prj RF: 815
2008 RF: 855
RF Diff: -40
Avg RA: 713
2008 RA: 671
RA Diff: 42
RF+RA Diff: -82
Division %: 66%
Wild Card %: 9%
Playoff %: 75%
High W: 95 (zips)
Low W: 88 (chone)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: I restricted Milton Bradley to around 500 PA a season in RF given his past health issues. He could play more than that. I gave Rich Harden 19 starts, but he made 25 last year.

Why they might be worse than projected: I restricted Milton Bradley to around 500 PA a season in RF given his past health issues. He could play less than that. I gave Rich Harden 19 starts, he could pitch less than that.



Team: St. Louis
Avg Prj W: 84
2008 Actual W: 86
2008 PythagenPat W: 87
W Diff: -2
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 771
2008 RF: 779
RF Diff: -8
Avg RA: 740
2008 RA: 725
RA Diff: 15
RF+RA Diff: -23
Division %: 17%
Wild Card %: 12%
Playoff %: 29%
High W: 87 (zips)
Low W: 82 (pecota)
Gap: 5
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: They have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols, and nothing he might do would surprise me. Chris Carpenter has looked good this spring, but I restricted him to around 15-16 starts a season. In his career, Khalil Greene has hit .270/.318/.484 on the road compared to .225/.289/.369 at home. In some research I did on home/road splits I've found that the average player hits about 10% better at home, so if Greene suffered unduly from PETCO he may exceed his projections handily.

Why they might be worse than projected: Pujols plays through a lot of nagging injuries and there's a possibility he won't play as much as projected. They may get nothing out of Carpenter. Their bullpen looks like a work in progress and may cost them a few wins.

Team: Milwaukee
Avg Prj W: 82
2008 Actual W: 90
2008 PythagenPat W: 87
W Diff: -8
PythagenPat W Diff: -5
Avg Prj RF: 777
2008 RF: 750
RF Diff: 27
Avg RA: 769
2008 RA: 689
RA Diff: 80
RF+RA Diff: -53
Division %: 11%
Wild Card %: 9%
Playoff %: 19%
High W: 86 (pecota)
Low W: 78 (marcel)
Gap: 8
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Prince Fielder was over two wins worse offensively in 2008 than he was in 2007. Rickie Weeks was a win worse. Ryan Braun was a win worse in more playing time. All are young enough to still be improving and could exceed their projections.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their rotation is going to be relying on good performances by some young pitchers(Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra), which is always a calculated risk.

Team: Cincinnati
Avg Prj W: 78
2008 Actual W: 74
2008 PythagenPat W: 71
W Diff: 4
PythagenPat W Diff: 7
Avg Prj RF: 739
2008 RF: 704
RF Diff: 35
Avg RA: 768
2008 RA: 800
RA Diff: -32
RF+RA Diff: 67
Division %: 4%
Wild Card %: 4%
Playoff %: 8%
High W: 82 (chone)
Low W: 76 (pecota)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Jay Bruce. Joey Votto. After a couple of disappointing seasons, Homer Bailey may be able to put it together at age 23. Edinson Volquez was amazing through the All Star Break, 117.2 IP, 126 Ks, 2.29 ERA but scuffled a little after 78.1 IP, 80 Ks, 4.60 ERA. If that was due to fatigue, then he has decent chance to exceed his projections, which also include 80 innings of 7.20 ERA pitching for Texas.

Why they might be worse than projected:

Willy Taveras is a decent glove in CF but he might kill them at the top of the order. The rest of their defense still looks like a possible concern as well. Team: Houston
Avg Prj W: 73
2008 Actual W: 86
2008 PythagenPat W: 78
W Diff: -13
PythagenPat W Diff: -5
Avg Prj RF: 729
2008 RF: 712
RF Diff: 17
Avg RA: 806
2008 RA: 743
RA Diff: 63
RF+RA Diff: -46
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 77 (hbt)
Low W: 69 (pecota)
Gap: 8
Avg Div Plc: 5

Why they might be better than projected: They get to beat up on Pittsburgh.

Why they might be worse than projected: The rotation? The bench? Miguel Tejada, Ivan Rodriguez and Geoff Blum as starters?

Team: Pittsburgh
Avg Prj W: 70
2008 Actual W: 67
2008 PythagenPat W: 67
W Diff: 3
PythagenPat W Diff: 3
Avg Prj RF: 731
2008 RF: 735
RF Diff: -4
Avg RA: 842
2008 RA: 884
RA Diff: -42
RF+RA Diff: 38
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 60 (zips)
Gap: 16
Avg Div Plc: 6

Why they might be better than projected:They get to beat up on Houston.

Why they might be worse than projected: 70 wins would be an upgrade of three wins from last year's 67 win squad, which has since lost a half-season of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. In 6000 iterations, the Pirates won fewer than 50 games 322 times, and fewer than 60 games 942 times.



NL West


Team: Los Angeles Angels
Avg Prj W: 85
2008 Actual W: 100
2008 PythagenPat W: 88
W Diff: -15
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 777
2008 RF: 765
RF Diff: 12
Avg RA: 734
2008 RA: 697
RA Diff: 37
RF+RA Diff: -25
Division %: 56%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 57%
High W: 87 (pecota)
Low W: 84 (hbt)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: Strong bullpen, mostly young offensive core, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley.

Why they might be worse than projected: Manny's hammy. Tanyon Sturtze in the role of Scott Proctor.

Team: Arizona
Avg Prj W: 84
2008 Actual W: 82
2008 PythagenPat W: 82
W Diff: 2
PythagenPat W Diff: 2
Avg Prj RF: 735
2008 RF: 720
RF Diff: 15
Avg RA: 715
2008 RA: 706
RA Diff: 9
RF+RA Diff: 6
Division %: 26%
Wild Card %: 7%
Playoff %: 33%
High W: 88 (pecota)
Low W: 79 (marcel)
Gap: 9
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: Most of their key players are young enough to improve more than projected.

Why they might be worse than projected: Injuries.

Team: San Francisco
Avg Prj W: 78
2008 Actual W: 72
2008 PythagenPat W: 68
W Diff: 6
PythagenPat W Diff: 10
Avg Prj RF: 711
2008 RF: 640
RF Diff: 71
Avg RA: 737
2008 RA: 759
RA Diff: -22
RF+RA Diff: 93
Division %: 14%
Wild Card %: 0%
Playoff %: 15%
High W: 81 (chone)
Low W: 72 (marcel)
Gap: 9
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Tim Lincecum was so good last year that no projection system expects him to repeat it. Randy Johnson was effective last year in Arizona and made 30 starts, but I restricted him to 25. If he can go more often, that obviously helps. It may not take more than 85 wins to take the NL West, although the average wins for the first place winner was 91 over the 6000 iterations.

Why they might be worse than projected: Johnson may not make 10 starts given his age and his injury past. Bengie Molina is their cleanup hitter. General offensive issues could sink them.

Team: Colorado
Avg Prj W: 79
2008 Actual W: 74
2008 PythagenPat W: 74
W Diff: 5
PythagenPat W Diff: 5
Avg Prj RF: 798
2008 RF: 747
RF Diff: 51
Avg RA: 818
2008 RA: 822
RA Diff: -4
RF+RA Diff: 55
Division %: 10%
Wild Card %: 4%
Playoff %: 13%
High W: 81 (chone)
Low W: 74 (pecota)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Chris Ianetta and Ryan Spilboroughs both hit better in 2008 than they are projected to in 2009. Todd Helton battled back issues last year and was restricted to just 361 PA while slugging just .388 which is obscenely bad for a 1B in Colorado. If he can bounce back to his 2007 or 2008 level he would be more valuable than projected. A full season of Troy Tulowitzki on both sides of the ball should help. Ubaldo Jimenez has top shelf stuff but bottom shelf command of it most of the time. A little bit better command and he could be one of the pitchers in baseball.

Why they might be worse than projected: Garrett Atkins (-7 projected UZR) and Brad Hawpe (-18 projected UZR) are among the worst defenders in MLB at their positions. Greg Smith's peripherals did not support his ERA last year(FIP of 4.82 compared to an ERA of 4.16) in Oakland, and he could be a disaster in Coors this year.

Team: San Diego
Avg Prj W: 74
2008 Actual W: 63
2008 PythagenPat W: 67
W Diff: 11
PythagenPat W Diff: 7
Avg Prj RF: 714
2008 RF: 637
RF Diff: 77
Avg RA: 773
2008 RA: 764
RA Diff: 9
RF+RA Diff: 68
Division %: 3%
Wild Card %: 2%
Playoff %: 5%
High W: 78 (chone)
Low W: 71 (zips)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 5

Why they might be better than projected: They have Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez.

Why they might be worse than projected: Jody Gerut projects pretty well in most of the systems, but a repeat of last year is probably a big question mark. Peavy and Chris Young are injury concerns.



Anyone who wants to look at or play around with the raw team level data from the simulations can download this Excel spreadsheet.

Back to the American League edition.