---

Sunday, March 23, 2008

The 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout Pt 2

Apparently this entry was too big for one post, so I’ve split it up into two.

Lastly, 1000 iterations of CAIRO

Team								High	Low	StD	StD	StD	Median	Mode	Div W	Wild Card
American League	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC	Playoff%	Wins	Wins	W	RF	RA	Wins	Wins	Avg	Avg
East
Bos08	94.2	67.8	874	734	488	245	73%	114	77	88 - 100	830 - 919	696 - 771	94	93	98	92
NYA08	93.0	69.0	940	802	394	302	70%	114	74	87 - 99	893 - 986	762 - 842	93	95	92
Tor08	86.4	75.6	779	714	99	182	28%	105	67	80 - 92	737 - 820	679 - 749	86	86	86
Tam08	81.4	80.6	818	806	19	79	10%	101	63	75 - 88	777 - 859	765 - 846	81	80	80
Bal08	66.6	95.4	760	948	0	2	0%	88	46	60 - 73	721 - 799	901 - 996	66	66	66
Central
Det08	88.5	73.5	870	785	496	64	56%	107	63	82 - 95	830 - 910	745 - 826	89	87	92
Cle08	87.9	74.1	825	739	439	78	52%	108	68	82 - 94	784 - 865	701 - 776	88	88	86
KC08	76.6	85.4	753	813	31	13	4%	99	53	70 - 83	714 - 792	771 - 855	77	75	80
Min08	75.5	86.5	709	765	26	5	3%	94	53	69 - 82	672 - 746	727 - 803	76	76	75
ChA08	73.5	88.5	769	839	9	5	1%	96	49	67 - 80	728 - 809	798 - 881	74	74	69
West
LAA08	87.2	74.8	793	731	685	9	69%	108	67	81 - 93	755 - 832	694 - 769	87	88	89
Sea08	80.0	82.0	741	763	172	11	18%	98	63	74 - 86	702 - 781	722 - 804	80	81	82
Tex08	75.9	86.1	816	877	84	3	9%	97	54	70 - 82	776 - 856	834 - 921	76	75	77
Oak08	75.2	86.8	757	816	59	3	6%	98	54	69 - 82	718 - 795	775 - 857	75	75	71
National League
East
NYN08	94.6	67.4	833	704	712	125	84%	115	76	88 - 101	793 - 873	666 - 742	95	95	96	90
Atl08	88.4	73.6	818	738	243	235	48%	109	71	82 - 95	777 - 859	700 - 776	88	88	88
Phi08	81.8	80.2	866	839	45	87	13%	104	59	76 - 88	823 - 909	799 - 880	81	81	81
Was08	69.2	92.8	770	888	0	1	0%	89	51	63 - 75	730 - 810	846 - 930	69	67	72
Flo08	68.5	93.5	743	869	0	3	0%	90	48	62 - 75	705 - 781	830 - 909	69	70	65
Central
ChN08	88.7	73.3	839	754	586	41	63%	112	72	83 - 95	798 - 880	716 - 792	89	91	91
Mil08	84.0	78.0	795	762	231	63	29%	105	57	78 - 90	755 - 836	725 - 799	84	84	85
StL08	79.7	82.3	772	777	84	26	11%	100	60	74 - 86	734 - 810	738 - 816	80	83	81
Cin08	77.8	84.2	780	825	61	16	8%	99	59	71 - 84	741 - 817	783 - 867	78	77	77
Hou08	75.7	86.3	780	823	37	11	5%	98	57	69 - 82	740 - 819	784 - 863	76	77	73
Pit08	68.2	93.8	715	875	2	0	0%	88	49	62 - 74	678 - 753	833 - 917	68	67	66
West
Ari08	86.7	75.3	744	694	302	97	40%	108	65	80 - 93	705 - 782	656 - 731	86	85	93
LAN08	86.1	75.9	763	736	243	118	36%	108	69	80 - 92	724 - 802	696 - 776	86	86	88
SD08	85.9	76.1	762	705	253	93	35%	105	66	80 - 92	724 - 800	669 - 741	86	88	84
Col08	84.8	77.2	832	785	202	86	29%	102	64	78 - 91	790 - 873	746 - 823	85	84	79
SF08	68.1	93.9	691	799	1	1	0%	87	50	62 - 74	655 - 726	760 - 838	68	67	68

Here's what it looks like if we combine those 6000 iterations into one aggregate set of standings.

Team								High	Low	StD	StD	StD	Median	Mode	Div W	Wild Card
American League	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC	Playoff%	Wins	Wins	W	RF	RA	Wins	Wins	Avg	Avg
East
NYA08	95.1	66.9	924	769	3218	1353	76%	118	70	88-102	875-973	716-822	95	98	98	92
BOS08	92.2	69.8	857	741	2043	1651	62%	118	71	86-99	809-904	696-785	92	92	92
TOR08	85.0	77.0	775	733	461	874	22%	110	58	78-92	733-817	679-787	85	86	86
TB08	82.1	79.9	816	797	279	542	14%	109	51	75-89	770-862	738-857	82	84	79
BAL08	66.9	95.1	754	917	0	6	0%	90	46	60-73	713-795	868-967	67	66	67
Central
DET08	90.7	71.3	863	757	3251	545	63%	117	63	84-97	818-908	715-799	91	91	94
CLE08	89.2	72.9	836	737	2521	633	53%	114	67	82-96	793-878	694-781	89	90	87
MIN08	75.2	86.8	723	783	92	51	2%	105	52	69-82	679-766	738-828	75	76	79
CHA08	73.8	88.2	788	866	80	33	2%	96	49	67-81	745-830	813-919	74	74	74
KC08	73.0	89.0	756	847	60	25	1%	99	51	66-80	715-797	799-896	73	73	68
West
LAA08	88.2	73.8	800	732	4012	104	69%	112	65	82-95	757-842	691-773	88	90	90
OAK08	79.9	82.1	761	773	1248	79	22%	107	54	72-88	716-806	714-831	80	81	83
SEA08	76.8	85.2	717	765	500	91	10%	103	53	69-84	675-759	716-814	77	76	76
TEX08	74.0	88.0	815	891	241	22	4%	97	51	67-81	771-859	839-942	74	73	70
National League
East
NYN08	95.2	66.8	837	702	4172	908	85%	119	68	89-102	790-885	652-753	95	95	97	91
ATL08	87.1	74.9	821	761	1020	1351	40%	113	61	80-94	773-869	714-808	87	88	89
PHI08	86.0	76.0	871	811	794	1199	33%	112	59	79-93	821-920	768-854	86	85	83
WAS08	70.3	91.7	763	870	10	21	1%	92	48	64-77	720-805	824-915	70	71	72
FLA08	67.8	94.2	747	874	6	13	0%	93	42	61-75	702-792	827-922	68	66	65
Central
CHN08	88.2	73.8	829	753	3159	324	58%	115	62	81-95	786-872	707-799	88	89	92
MIL08	85.0	77.0	821	775	1774	343	35%	110	57	78-92	777-864	733-818	85	84	85
STL08	78.3	83.7	762	784	503	130	11%	101	51	71-85	715-809	738-831	78	78	81
CIN08	76.9	85.1	777	825	318	107	7%	101	49	70-84	732-822	780-869	77	74	77
HOU08	74.6	87.4	760	826	196	66	4%	99	47	68-81	712-809	778-873	75	74	72
PIT08	69.8	92.2	718	839	53	26	1%	96	46	62-77	675-760	791-888	70	67	66
West
LAD08	85.4	76.6	764	732	1705	466	36%	108	63	79-92	722-806	693-772	85	86	92
SD08	84.3	77.7	738	702	1613	337	33%	111	57	77-92	691-786	660-745	84	83	86
ARI08	83.9	78.2	760	733	1396	352	29%	108	60	77-91	706-815	681-784	84	83	82
COL08	82.5	79.5	828	811	1195	333	25%	112	54	75-90	776-881	748-873	82	83	78
SF08	72.9	89.1	684	756	93	30	2%	97	50	66-80	641-726	702-811	73	76	71

It's been far too long between pie charts here on the RLYW, so here are mad pie charts with the division title breakdowns for each division using all 6000 iterations.













Lastly, here's a simple table that just looks at the average projected wins for each team by projection system.

Team	cairo	chone	dmb	hbt	pecota	zips	avg
ARI08	86.7	85.4	78.4	81.7	86.5	84.4	83.9
ATL08	88.4	84.3	85.2	85.3	85.5	93.9	87.1
BAL08	66.6	64.3	68.3	67.0	66.3	68.9	66.9
BOS08	94.2	91.9	91.9	93.4	91.0	91.0	92.2
CHA08	73.5	74.9	71.7	75.2	77.8	69.5	73.8
CHN08	88.7	86.9	85.3	86.3	89.1	93.0	88.2
CIN08	77.8	80.1	73.0	77.6	79.3	73.5	76.9
CLE08	87.9	91.7	90.4	86.1	90.5	88.3	89.2
COL08	84.8	76.5	90.4	81.2	83.4	78.5	82.5
DET08	88.5	90.8	94.7	89.2	90.2	90.9	90.7
FLA08	68.5	69.2	68.8	63.0	74.0	63.4	67.8
HOU08	75.7	74.4	79.0	73.6	74.2	70.5	74.6
KC08	76.6	69.3	72.3	73.4	72.5	73.8	73.0
LAA08	87.2	91.6	86.9	90.4	87.8	85.4	88.2
LAD08	86.1	84.9	84.8	83.8	88.7	84.3	85.4
MIL08	84.0	85.5	83.4	87.9	86.4	82.6	85.0
MIN08	75.5	76.7	77.3	75.4	70.8	75.5	75.2
NYA08	93.0	92.5	96.7	92.9	97.0	98.5	95.1
NYN08	94.6	92.6	92.2	98.1	94.4	99.3	95.2
OAK08	75.2	74.5	83.8	79.0	78.2	88.7	79.9
PHI08	81.8	87.8	83.7	89.9	85.5	87.1	86.0
PIT08	68.2	75.7	68.2	68.4	73.6	64.6	69.8
SD08	85.9	84.0	81.6	88.9	78.2	87.4	84.3
SEA08	80.0	82.6	75.9	77.3	73.5	71.7	76.8
SF08	68.1	72.9	73.8	74.4	69.4	78.6	72.9
STL08	79.7	76.0	82.5	80.4	73.0	78.0	78.3
TB08	81.4	87.1	80.1	80.6	86.3	77.3	82.1
TEX08	75.9	72.2	72.2	76.0	74.8	72.7	74.0
TOR08	86.4	82.9	87.3	84.9	78.5	89.8	85.0
WAS08	69.2	70.7	70.3	68.9	73.7	68.8	70.3

I'll go through each team briefly.

AL East

Yankees
Projected W-L: 95-67
Playoff %: 76%
Best Average Projection: ZiPS (98-64)
Worst Average Projection: Chone (93-69)
The consensus is the Yankees are the best team in the American League. This doesn't seem unrealistic if their young pitchers perform as projected, but that's a really big if. Any projections of young pitchers based primarily on MLEs are probably going to have large error bars around them. I'm also a little worried about the bullpen , although Mo and Joba are a fine 1-2 punch. The bench looks to be as good as it's been in some time. On offense, the Yankees scored 1000 or more runs in 376 of the 6000 runs, so about 6% of the time. For comparison's sake, Boston did it 12 times, Detroit did it 13 times, Atlanta did it twice, Philadelphia did it 31 times, Milwaukee did it twice and Colorado did it 4 times. At least statistically, the conventional wisdom that Boston is the clear class of the division is just not true on virtual paper.

Red Sox
Projected W-L: 92-70
Playoff %: 62%
Best Average Projection: Cairo (94-68)
Worst Average Projection: Pecota/ZiPS (91-71)
Losing Curt Schilling cost the Red Sox about two wins. I've assumed he will not pitch this year. I penciled in Bartolo Colon for around 15 starts but his projections are pretty bad. If he is able to pitch more frequently than that and better his projections that's a big boost. Jon Lester's projections are generally not that good either, so if he exceeds those as he gets further away from his cancer recovery then Boston will likely reap the benefits there.

Blue Jays
Projected W-L: 85-77
Playoff %: 22%
Best Average Projection: ZiPS (90-72)
Worst Average Projection: Pecota (79-83)
Toronto's probably the best defensive team in the American League and they've got a chance to be the best team in the league as far as preventing runs. Unfortunately for them, that looks to be the only way they'll have a chance to contend because their offense looks like it'll be a little lacking. A potential return to form by Scott Rolen would be a huge boost both offensively and defensively. That spread between ZiPS and Pecota is pretty interesting.

Rays
Projected W-L: 82-80
Playoff %: 14%
Best Average Projection: Chone (87-75)
Worst Average Projection: Diamond Mind (80-82)
These are not your father's Devil Rays. First of all, they ain't Devils no more. Second of all, they made several good moves during the offseason to shore up what was a horrific defensive unit. PECOTA and CHONE both project them to win 89 games using their depth charts, but when I played out the seasons they came in at 86 and 87 wins on average. I think the consensus is right, they're going to be much improved, although they may not quite be ready to contend just yet. Still, if I were a Rays fan and saw that they had a 14% shot at the postseason I'd be pretty excited about it.

Orioles
Projected W-L: 67-95
Playoff %: 0%
Best Average Projection: ZiPS (69-93)
Worst Average Projection: Chone (64-98)
Dan Szymborski the Oriole fanboy clearly rigged ZiPS to favor Baltimore. Seriously, if you wanted to pick the team most likely to lose 100 games this season, this is your squad. They have some potentially exciting players to watch in Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, but the other four teams in this division all project to be above .500 and that's almost half of the Orioles' schedule. No other team failed to win their division at least once.

AL Central

Tigers
Projected W-L: 91-71
Playoff %: 63%
Best Average Projection: Diamond Mind (95-67)
Worst Average Projection: Cairo (89-73)
Detroit's a good team, which isn't any surprise. I think some are overestimating the impact of getting Miguel Cabrera, because while it's a massive offensive upgrade it projects to be a defensive downgrade of close to 40 runs. Still, they're as dangerous a team as any team in the AL. Their lack of depth would worry me a bit if I was a Tigers fan, as well as a shaky pen, but other than that they're going to be tough.

Indians
Projected W-L: 89-73
Playoff %: 53%
Best Average Projection: Chone (92-70)
Worst Average Projection: Hardball Times (86-76)
Projected regression by C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez all contribute to a down projection compared to 2007, but I think they're neck and neck with Detroit in reality and the loser will be neck and neck with the AL East runner-up for the wild card. And yeah, that's not exactly insightful.

Twins
Projected W-L: 75-87
Playoff %: 2%
Best Average Projection: Diamond Mind (77-85)
Worst Average Projection: Pecota (71-91)
Trading Johan Santana for no one who is likely to contribute anything meaningful this year probably means a long season in Minnesota. Well done Bill Smith. Francisco Liriano is back which will help, although how much he can pitch and how effective he'll be are fair questions. I limited him to about 150 innings in these simulations.

White Sox
Projected W-L: 74-88
Playoff %: 2%
Best Average Projection: Pecota (78-84)
Worst Average Projection: Diamond Mind (72-90)
2005 must seem so long ago. I liked the Quentin and Swisher acquistions, but unfortunately neither of them can pitch and that looks like it's going to be a sore spot.

Royals
Projected W-L: 73-89
Playoff %: 1%
Best Average Projection: Cairo (77-85)
Worst Average Projection: Chone (69-93)
Cairo likes the Royals more than anyone, although I'm not sure why. They are on the upswing, and with Alex Gordon and Billy Butler there's plenty of reason to watch them again. I think they are improving but they still have a bit to go yet.

AL West

Angels
Projected W-L: 88-74
Playoff %: 69%
Best Average Projection: Chone (92-70)
Worst Average Projection:ZiPS (85-77)
In what looks like a pretty weak division overall, the Angels should be close to locks to win the AL West. They won the divison 67% of the time across 6000 simulations, which is more than any other AL team did.

Athletics
Projected W-L: 80-82
Playoff %: 22%
Best Average Projection: ZiPS (89-73)
Worst Average Projection: Chone (75-87)
That ZiPS projection is a real head-scratcher, huh? I expected Oakland to look much worse than this. Some of is the return to health of people like Rich Harden and Eric Chavez, although I did restrict their playing time because assuming health out of them is pretty much folly right now. Oakland may have the most underrated player in baseball in Mark Ellis by the way. He projects to save 20 runs above average on defense.

Mariners
Projected W-L: 77-85
Playoff %: 10%
Best Average Projection: Chone (83-79)
Worst Average Projection: ZiPS (72-90)
I have a friend who is a huge baseball fan but doesn't know anything about sabremetrics. We were talkng baseball the other day and he was telling me how adding Erik Bedard to an 88 win team means Seattle's going to cruise to the AL West crown. I didn't feel like arguing with him so I just said 'Yeah.' This is a prime example of where conventional wisdom and statistical wisdom diverge. The Mariners may have won 88 games last year, but their pythagorean record was closer to an 80 win team. It'll be interesting to see what Seattle does this year either way, but it doesn't look like they were right in trading for Bedard right now.

Rangers
Projected W-L: 74-88
Playoff %: 4%
Best Average Projection: Hardball Times (76-86)
Worst Average Projection: Chone/Diamond Mind (72-90)
I know Baltimore will probably be worse, but I can't think of a more irrelevant team than Texas right now.

NL East

Mets
Projected W-L: 95-67
Playoff %: 85%
Best Average Projection: ZiPS (99-63)
Worst Average Projection: Diamond Mind (92-70)
The Mets are probably not the best team in baseball, but they have a very good chance of winning the most games. They added the best pitcher in the game to a strong defensive team that can hit a little. Put them in a division where they get to beat up on Washington and Florida 38 times and you've got the recipe for a 95+ win team. The Mets made the playoffs more often than any other team in these simulations. Their biggest weakness may be depth in the starting rotation, but you can say that about everyone except Milwaukee probably. I assumed about 170 innings for Pedro Martinez and 120 innings for El Duque, although it still pains me to see him in an orange and blue clown suit.

Braves
Projected W-L: 87-75
Playoff %: 40%
Best Average Projection: ZiPS (94-68)
Worst Average Projection: Chone (84-78)
I think Atlanta's going to end up better than that projected 87-75 average, but I don't know if they'll be good enough to catch the Metsies.

Phillies
Projected W-L: 86-76
Playoff %: 33%
Best Average Projection: Hardball Times (90-72)
Worst Average Projection: Cairo (82-80)
Lots o' runs. Scored and against. I think Cairo's way pessimistic here, but I do think the Phillies' pitching is suspect. They project to be the second highest scoring team in baseball, and that's without a DH. I repeat it every chance I get, but Chase Utley is an outstanding player.

Nationals
Projected W-L: 70-92
Playoff %: 1%
Best Average Projection: Pecota (74-88)
Worst Average Projection: ZiPS (69-93)
I have no rational reason for it, but I think Washington will be a little better than this. Must be my latent man-love of Nick Johnson.

Marlins
Projected W-L: 68-94
Playoff %: 0%
Best Average Projection: Pecota (74-88)
Worst Average Projection: Hardball Times (63-99)
Here's a fun game. See if you can name half of Florida's roster...

NL Central

Cubs
Projected W-L: 88-74
Playoff %: 58%
Best Average Projection: ZiPS (93-69)
Worst Average Projection: Diamond Mind (85-77)
Last year's NL Central winners look like the favorites again, whether they get Brian Roberts or not. I'm interested to see how Kosuke Fukudome's game translates to the majors. His projections are all pretty good.

Brewers
Projected W-L: 85-77
Playoff %: 35%
Best Average Projection: Hardball Times (88-74)
Worst Average Projection: ZiPS (83-79)
The Brewers were in contention until the end last year and should be there again this year. The biggest factor is going to be how their defensive realignment helps out. The Brew Crew's defense was brutal last year, -41 runs above average by zone rating. Getting Bill Hall out of CF and Ryan Braun off 3B should help that quite a bit.

Reds
Projected W-L: 77-85
Playoff %: 7%
Best Average Projection: Chone (80-82)
Worst Average Projection: Diamond Mind (73-89)
The Reds don't project well, but I can't shake this hunch that they will be contending for some reason. I assumed CF was split between Corey Patterson and Jay Bruce, although offense + defense there's not a big difference between the two of them..

Cardinals
Projected W-L: 78-84
Playoff %: 11%
Best Average Projection: Diamond Mind (83-79)
Worst Average Projection: Pecota (73-89)
Another team with a pretty big disparity between their best and worst projections. While I don't think St. Louis will be good this year, I can see them around .500.

Update (I missed the 'Stros)
Astros
Projected W-L: 75-87
Playoff %: 4%
Best Average Projection: Diamond Mind (79-83)
Worst Average Projection: Hardball Times (74-88)
Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman are great. The rest of the team, not so much. The offensive upgrade from Adam Everett to Miguel Tejada is nice, but the defensive hit is possibly on the order of 20 runs. Thin starting pitching behind Oswalt is probably their biggest problem. Seriously, Woody Williams?

Pirates
Projected W-L: 70-92
Playoff %: 1%
Best Average Projection: Chone (76-86)
Worst Average Projection: ZiPS (65-97)
Hopefully new management will help get Pittsburgh turned around. It's a great baseball town when things are going well and the fans there deserve better than they've gotten.

NL West

Dodgers
Projected W-L: 85-77
Playoff %: 36%
Best Average Projection: Pecota (89-73)
Worst Average Projection: ZiPS (84-78)
Projecting the Dodgers' depth chart was a pain in the ass. Instead of doing it logically I had to think like Joe Torre. It's an open question if the guys who should get the bulk of the playing time will actually get it. Losing Andy LaRoche stings a little, and there is the Juan Pierre issue to deal with as well. It'll be interesting to watch how Torre handles things. They should be pretty good though.

Diamondbacks
Projected W-L: 84-78
Playoff %: 29%
Best Average Projection: Cairo (87-75)
Worst Average Projection: Diamond Mind (78-84)
Last year the Diamondbacks outperformed their run differential on their way to 90 wins. They project to be a better team this year but do not project to win as many games. The NL West is shaping up as the most interesting division in baseball.

Padres
Projected W-L: 84-78
Playoff %: 33%
Best Average Projection: Hardball Times (89-73)
Worst Average Projection: Pecota (78-84)
Do they have a left fielder yet?

Rockies
Projected W-L: 83-79
Playoff %: 25%
Best Average Projection: Diamond Mind (90-72)
Worst Average Projection: Chone (77-85)
Last year's National League champs (aka tallest midgets in the circus) are projected to drop a bit. The top four teams in the NL West project within two games of each other. It should be a dogfight all year.

Giants
Projected W-L: 73-89
Playoff %: 2%
Best Average Projection: ZiPS (79-83)
Worst Average Projection: Cairo (68-94)
We go from the tallest midgets in the circus to the shortest. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain should keep them from being historically bad at least.

Anyone who wants to look at the raw data from the simulations can download it here.

And that's your 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout. Like I said last year, results are not guaranteed.