Monday, February 16, 2009
Still Too Early 2009 Projections - CAIRO Edition
Early last month, I ran and posted the results of 100 trials of the 2009 MLB season using projections from the Hardball Times and also with Tango Tiger's Marcels.While it's still too early to run my full set of projections, here's another set of 100, this time using my CAIRO projections. Rosters are current through yesterday, although I don't have Miguel Cairo on the Phils, which is probably like a five win upgrade.
| AL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | Poff % |
| NYA09 | 95.1 | 66.9 | 843 | 709 | 41.0 | 34.0 | 75.0% |
| Bos09 | 94.4 | 67.6 | 847 | 716 | 42.5 | 27.5 | 70.0% |
| Tam09 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 810 | 713 | 13.0 | 31.5 | 44.5% |
| Tor09 | 81.1 | 80.9 | 680 | 683 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 5.5% |
| Bal09 | 72.2 | 89.8 | 778 | 868 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| AL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | Poff % |
| Cle09 | 83.6 | 78.5 | 805 | 770 | 48.0 | 1.5 | 49.5% |
| Min09 | 79.8 | 82.2 | 714 | 733 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 19.5% |
| Det09 | 77.9 | 84.1 | 784 | 807 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 14.0% |
| ChA09 | 76.9 | 85.1 | 747 | 794 | 13.0 | 0.5 | 13.5% |
| KC09 | 75.6 | 86.4 | 732 | 800 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5.5% |
| AL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | Poff % |
| LAA09 | 86.6 | 75.4 | 757 | 704 | 70.0 | 1.5 | 71.5% |
| Oak09 | 78.1 | 83.9 | 787 | 808 | 14.5 | 1.5 | 16.0% |
| Sea09 | 76.2 | 85.8 | 704 | 736 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 10.5% |
| Tex09 | 72.5 | 89.5 | 788 | 880 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 5.0% |
| NL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | Poff % |
| NYN09 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 824 | 736 | 57.0 | 6.8 | 63.8% |
| Phi09 | 86.6 | 75.4 | 834 | 788 | 29.5 | 7.0 | 36.5% |
| Atl09 | 81.2 | 80.8 | 771 | 766 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 23.5% |
| Was09 | 71.8 | 90.2 | 736 | 823 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3% |
| Flo09 | 69.6 | 92.4 | 737 | 836 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0% |
| NL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | Poff % |
| ChN09 | 95.5 | 66.5 | 851 | 699 | 82.5 | 9.5 | 92.0% |
| StL09 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 772 | 717 | 12.0 | 29.0 | 41.0% |
| Mil09 | 82.5 | 79.5 | 789 | 784 | 5.5 | 16.0 | 21.5% |
| Cin09 | 76.9 | 85.1 | 716 | 759 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.3% |
| Pit09 | 72.0 | 90.0 | 737 | 830 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| Hou09 | 72.0 | 90.1 | 718 | 806 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5% |
| NL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | Poff % |
| Ari09 | 85.6 | 76.4 | 761 | 737 | 40.5 | 3.0 | 43.5% |
| SF09 | 83.2 | 78.8 | 744 | 721 | 29.5 | 4.3 | 33.8% |
| Col09 | 82.3 | 79.7 | 817 | 802 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 21.0% |
| LA09 | 79.8 | 82.2 | 734 | 743 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 14.5% |
| SD09 | 75.1 | 86.9 | 730 | 779 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4.0% |
W: Average wins over 100 iterations
L: Average losses over 100 iterations
RF: Average runs over 100 iterations
RA: Average runs against over 100 iterations
DIV: Total division titles over 100 iterations
WC: Total wild cards over 100 iterations
Poff %: Playoff percentage (DIV + WC divided by 100)
Here are the average wins it took to win each division and the wild cards in these simulations.
AL East: 100
AL Central: 87
AL West: 88
AL Wild Card: 93
NL East: 93
NL Central: 97
NL West: 90
NL Wild Card: 90
Now a lot can change from today until the start of the season, so don't read too much into them. That being said, if these numbers are anything like what may happen, we're in for some fun pennant races.
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