Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Still a Touch Early 2009 Projected Standings - ZiPS edition
Dan Szymborski at
Baseball Think Factory has created a
2009 ZiPS projection disk for Diamond Mind. so I've run 100 iterations and the results are below. This will probably be the last set of projected standings I post before starting my full set of projections. I'm assuming that Alex Rodriguez will miss 30% of the games here.
| AL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| NYA09 | 97.6 | 64.4 | 888 | 735 | 50.5 | 29.0 |
| BOS09 | 95.8 | 66.2 | 863 | 706 | 34.5 | 39.0 |
| TB09 | 90.7 | 71.3 | 793 | 678 | 15.0 | 27.0 |
| TOR09 | 76.3 | 85.7 | 686 | 728 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| BAL09 | 74.7 | 87.3 | 792 | 851 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| AL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| CLE09 | 84.8 | 77.2 | 810 | 760 | 42.5 | 1.0 |
| DET09 | 83.8 | 78.3 | 812 | 773 | 39.0 | 0.0 |
| MIN09 | 79.5 | 82.5 | 753 | 787 | 13.0 | 0.0 |
| KC09 | 76.3 | 85.7 | 740 | 805 | 4.5 | 1.0 |
| CHA09 | 70.9 | 91.1 | 769 | 871 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| AL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| LAA09 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 766 | 744 | 40.0 | 0.0 |
| OAK09 | 81.3 | 80.7 | 757 | 749 | 40.5 | 0.0 |
| SEA09 | 78.3 | 83.7 | 712 | 731 | 17.5 | 0.0 |
| TEX09 | 69.9 | 92.1 | 784 | 912 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| NL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| NYN09 | 90.5 | 71.5 | 851 | 759 | 45.5 | 13.5 |
| PHI09 | 88.8 | 73.2 | 825 | 754 | 30.5 | 17.5 |
| ATL09 | 87.0 | 75.0 | 791 | 732 | 24.0 | 16.8 |
| WAS09 | 75.3 | 86.7 | 776 | 829 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| FLA09 | 66.7 | 95.3 | 720 | 857 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| CHN09 | 94.8 | 67.2 | 841 | 705 | 76.0 | 7.5 |
| STL09 | 86.8 | 75.2 | 769 | 709 | 17.5 | 16.8 |
| MIL09 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 799 | 787 | 5.5 | 9.0 |
| CIN09 | 76.8 | 85.2 | 742 | 784 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| HOU09 | 71.4 | 90.6 | 731 | 835 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| PIT09 | 60.5 | 101.5 | 684 | 879 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| LAD09 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 822 | 747 | 52.8 | 2.0 |
| ARI09 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 739 | 705 | 26.8 | 8.5 |
| COL09 | 81.2 | 80.9 | 797 | 796 | 8.5 | 3.5 |
| SF09 | 78.9 | 83.1 | 701 | 720 | 10.8 | 3.0 |
| SD09 | 71.7 | 90.4 | 705 | 785 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
I should be able to start my player previews/projections sometime this week as well. I'm going to shelve the 20 worst seasons by position for now, and probably revisit it later.
Update: Standard deviations for wins added as requested by
Mike K.
| AL East | SD W |
| NYA09 | 92 - 104 |
| BOS09 | 90 - 102 |
| TB09 | 85 - 97 |
| TOR09 | 69 - 83 |
| BAL09 | 68 - 81 |
| AL Central | SD W |
| CLE09 | 79 - 90 |
| DET09 | 77 - 91 |
| MIN09 | 73 - 86 |
| KC09 | 70 - 82 |
| CHA09 | 65 - 77 |
| AL West | SD W |
| LAA09 | 77 - 89 |
| OAK09 | 75 - 88 |
| SEA09 | 72 - 84 |
| TEX09 | 64 - 76 |
| NL East | SD W |
| NYN09 | 84 - 97 |
| PHI09 | 83 - 95 |
| ATL09 | 81 - 93 |
| WAS09 | 70 - 81 |
| FLA09 | 61 - 72 |
| NL Central | SD W |
| CHN09 | 88 - 101 |
| STL09 | 81 - 93 |
| MIL09 | 76 - 88 |
| CIN09 | 72 - 82 |
| HOU09 | 66 - 77 |
| PIT09 | 54 - 67 |
| NL West | SD W |
| LAD09 | 82 - 96 |
| ARI09 | 80 - 92 |
| COL09 | 74 - 88 |
| SF09 | 72 - 85 |
| SD09 | 65 - 78 |
--Posted at 8:51 am by SG / 54 Comments | - (274)
