Monday, December 22, 2008
So Who’s Got the Best Rotation in the AL East Now (CHONE edition)?
One of the things I will freely acknowledge is that my CAIRO projection system is somewhat limited (as are all projection systems). That’s why I like to look at lots of different projections to get a feel for what other formulas and algorithms predict. Because of this, I’m going to look at the same question as I did yesterday regarding the best rotation in the AL East, but this time I’ll use Sean Smith’s recently posted CHONE projections instead of CAIRO.
One difference here is that Sean’s projections are not neutral, but are adjusted for park and defense. RSAR are still comparable since they’re park-adjusted, but keep the park and defense impact in mind when looking at the raw numbers like ERA.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement-level
IP/S: Innings pitched per start
CHONE is more conservative than CAIRO on projected innings pitched both per game started and over a full season, so I had to adjust some pitchers innings up and there are more innings from the sixth starters to get each team to 162 starts. Also, CHONE’s replacement level is lower (worse) than CAIRO’s, so the RSAR totals are bigger here, although it’s all relative so it’s not a problem.
CHONE likes Boston’s rotation a little more than CAIRO, primarily Beckett and Matsuzaka. Overall, CHONE says the Red Sox rotation should save 163 runs above replacement level using my estimated playing time.
Tampa is basically even with Boston at 162 RSAR, although David Price’s projection is a lot more pessimistic here. That’s mitigated by better projections for Shields, Kazmir, Sonnanstine and Garza though.
Lower innings across the board here for everyone, but the Yankee rotation still looks like the class of the AL East with these numbers, although the gap narrows from the 6 wins I had with CAIRO to 4 wins.
And here’s a final comparison of the CHONE totals.
Looks like further encouraging data to me, at least on the starting pitching front.
Reader zellyanks91 emailed me an interesting blog entry he wrote about his interaction with Phil Hughes on a baseball card forum. Hughes seems like a really good guy from reading this.
Page 1 of 1 pages: