Tuesday, October 30, 2007
So Now What?
I'm disappointed to see Alex Rodriguez gone. In the short-term the Yankees will probably be about five wins worse in 2008 because of it. Long-term though, I don't think this is a bad thing. Rodriguez will be 32 in 2008. The rumored extension the Yankees were talking about would have locked up Rodriguez through his late 30s, at a cost of close to $30 million a year. The Yankees apparently felt that he was worth it, but I don't know if that was really the case. For everyone that hates the Damon and Giambi contracts, you'd probably feel the same way about the Rodriguez contract in a few years.I don't begrudge Rodriguez for his salary or for opting out. He negotiated both things from his employers as was his right. Why should fans get upset that players are "overpaid" when the money that doesn't go to them just goes into the pockets of the owners? Or do we really think the noble owners wouldn't raise prices if they didn't have to pay the players as much as they do? Maybe Rodriguez wants to own a team at some point. Maybe he wants to do a lot of things that will require every penny he can get together. Baseball is not just a game, it's a business, for the teams and the players. And any Yankee fan that feels sorry for themselves for seeing Rodriguez walk should look in the mirror and remember all the players the Yankees have taken from other teams in the past. Lastly, with the way Rodriguez has been treated by many fans and the media in New York, who could blame him if he wanted to leave? Check out the A-Rod cover counter, 125 covers and counting...
Rodriguez was an important part of the team for the last four years. He will not be an easy piece to replace, but I think the Yankees need to move on. To go back on their word now just makes them look weak and indecisive.
So what are the Yankees losing? First off, realistically they're not losing the 2007 version of Alex Rodriguez. That version of Rodriguez was the most valuable player in the league, but he was also a version of Alex Rodriguez that has never happened in the past and who will likely not happen in the future. It was a career year for a Hall of Fame player, but all we have to do is look at 2004 and 2006 to see that Rodriguez probably isn't that good. As far as projecting Rodriguez in 2008, I went through the numbers already here. In 2008, Rodriguez projected to be worth somewhere around 120 runs using linear weights, compared to the 150 or so he was worth in 2007. Defensively I had him projected to be a touch below average, around -3.
Forget about the idea of moving Robinson Cano to third. It is dumb. He's a plus defender at second base already and is comfortable there, and it's not like the Yankees have someone they could slot in at second if they move him. The obvious in-house candidate is Wilson Betemit.
Here's a look at Betemit's range of CAIRO projections for 2008, pro-rated to 650 plate appearances.
| % | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | pBR/650 |
| 80% | 150 | 650 | 574 | 173 | 39 | 5 | 31 | 105 | 81 | 2 | 122 | 4 | 2 | .302 | .395 | .548 | .942 | 115 | 30 |
| 65% | 150 | 650 | 574 | 163 | 35 | 4 | 26 | 97 | 74 | 1 | 132 | 3 | 2 | .284 | .366 | .495 | .862 | 100 | 15 |
| Baseline | 150 | 650 | 574 | 152 | 30 | 2 | 22 | 89 | 67 | 1 | 143 | 2 | 2 | .265 | .338 | .443 | .781 | 85 | 0 |
| 35% | 150 | 650 | 574 | 142 | 25 | 1 | 18 | 81 | 60 | 0 | 153 | 1 | 5 | .247 | .310 | .391 | .701 | 69 | -16 |
| 20% | 150 | 650 | 574 | 131 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 73 | 53 | 0 | 163 | 0 | 5 | .228 | .282 | .338 | .621 | 54 | -31 |
A few things about these #s. Betemit's platoon splits are extreme (career .268/.347/.464 vs RHP, .232/.281/.353 vs LHP). When projecting any platoon player into a full-time role their statistics may overstate their talent. I think Betemit can be the Yankee 3B against right-handers and put up a league average line for a 3B, but I think he'll be overexposed if he's playing against lefties.
Even Betemit's 80% projection is worse than Alex Rodriguez's baseline projection. Rodriguez projects to be about 36 runs above an average 3B on offense. Betemit's 80% projection has him at 30 runs above average, but more likely he should be right around average.
Here's the defensive comparison between the two.
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Inn | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PM +/- | RS | RS/162 |
| 2004 | AL | NYY | 3B | Rodriguez | 29 | 155 | 155 | 1364 | 100 | 262 | 13 | 25 | 286 | 364 | .786 | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| 2005 | AL | NYY | 3B | Rodriguez | 29 | 161 | 161 | 1385 | 115 | 288 | 12 | 26 | 321 | 436 | .736 | -15 | -12 | -13 |
| 2006 | AL | NYY | 3B | Rodriguez | 30 | 151 | 148 | 1288 | 96 | 262 | 24 | 24 | 289 | 390 | .741 | -10 | -8 | -9 |
| 2007 | AL | NYY | 3B | Rodriguez | 31 | 154 | 154 | 1330 | 106 | 251 | 13 | 30 | 283 | 370 | .765 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Projection | 32 | 156 | 154 | 1336 | 104 | 266 | 16 | 27 | 295 | 390 | .755 | -3 | -3 | -3 |
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Inn | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PM +/- | RS | RS/162 |
| 2004 | NL | Atl | 3B | Betemit | 22 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 1.000 | 2 | 1 | 47 |
| 2005 | NL | Atl | 3B | Betemit | 23 | 63 | 46 | 431 | 26 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 103 | 124 | .831 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
| 2006 | NL | Atl/LA | 3B | Betemit | 24 | 79 | 65 | 602 | 32 | 123 | 7 | 18 | 124 | 160 | .775 | -2 | -1 | -2 |
| 2007 | AL/NL | LA/NYY | 3B | Betemit | 25 | 63 | 50 | 454 | 25 | 97 | 6 | 12 | 98 | 128 | .766 | -2 | -2 | -6 |
| 2008 | Projection | 26 | 50 | 39 | 354 | 22 | 71 | 4 | 7 | 75 | 97 | .777 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM+/-: Difference between PM and an average defender's PM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games
Betemit has only played the equivalent of one full season at third base, so I'm not sure how much faith we can have in his defensive statistics to this point. He projects to be about a smidgen better than Rodriguez defensively, so that's good at least.
If I were running the Yankees, I'd see if Morgan Ensberg gets non-tendered by San Diego. He had a down year this year but he's pretty good defender at third historically and he hits lefties very well(career .284/.406/.530 vs LHP). If he's not non-tendered, maybe an Igawa/Ensberg swap would work for both teams. Here's Ensberg's range of CAIRO projections for 2008.
| % | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | pBR/650 |
| 80% | 150 | 650 | 550 | 158 | 34 | 4 | 34 | 107 | 104 | 7 | 100 | 6 | 5 | .288 | .413 | .549 | .962 | 118 | 33 |
| 65% | 150 | 650 | 550 | 151 | 30 | 3 | 31 | 101 | 98 | 6 | 107 | 5 | 5 | .275 | .391 | .508 | .899 | 106 | 21 |
| Baseline | 150 | 650 | 550 | 143 | 27 | 2 | 27 | 95 | 92 | 4 | 113 | 4 | 5 | .261 | .368 | .467 | .835 | 94 | 9 |
| 35% | 150 | 650 | 550 | 136 | 24 | 1 | 24 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 120 | 3 | 7 | .247 | .345 | .427 | .772 | 82 | -3 |
| 20% | 150 | 650 | 550 | 128 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 83 | 80 | 2 | 127 | 1 | 7 | .234 | .323 | .386 | .709 | 70 | -15 |
And Ensberg's defensive projection:
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Inn | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PM +/- | RS | RS/162 |
| 2008 | NL | SD | 3B | Ensberg | 32 | 105 | 94 | 848 | 69 | 188 | 12 | 20 | 204 | 259 | .785 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Even at Ensberg's 35% CAIRO projection a Betemit/Ensberg platoon would probably give the Yankees an above average 3B situation, maybe a win or so above average. That's still a 3-4 win downgrade from Rodriguez, but it would mean 3B isn't a big problem. Ensberg may even recover enough from a down 2007 to deserve the full-time role, although at age 32 I wouldn't bet on it.
With Rodriguez and Posada I had the Yankees projected to score around 930 runs next season. If they retain Posada and replace Rodriguez with Betemit/Ensberg I'd probably put them at 890 runs or so. If they can get better pitching in 2008 I don't see any reason they shouldn't be a wild card contender. Keeping Posada is a must for that though.
So get off the ledge. Losing Rodriguez hurts, but it's not a crippling blow. The Yankees could look to strengthen first base a little to make up for some of the lost offense, but they will likely sink or swim based on the performance of their young pitchers, and any attempt to project how that will work out is going to have huge error bars. If Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy all manage to develop into average or above starters things may just be be OK. If they don't, then the Yankees will miss the postseason. If that happens, it won't be the end of the world. Ask any Red Sox fan if missing the playoffs in 2006 ruined their enjoyment of 2007.
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