Wednesday, January 6, 2010
So How Good Might the 2010 Red Sox Defense Be?
As Yankee fans, we generally keep an eye on our divisional rivals in the North East. In 2009, the Red Sox fell short of a strong Yankee team before bowing out to the Los Angeles Angels of California in the ALDS. While the Red Sox had a good overall season winning 95 games and taking the wild card, one area where they were pretty poor was on defense.Here's how the Red Sox rated at each position defensively in 2009 using standard zone rating and UZR.
| TM | POS | zRS | uRS | aRS |
| Bos | 1B | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Bos | 2B | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| Bos | 3B | -7 | -12 | -9 |
| Bos | CF | -11 | -20 | -15 |
| Bos | LF | -21 | -12 | -17 |
| Bos | RF | -1 | 9 | 4 |
| Bos | SS | -7 | 8 | 0 |
| Bos | Total | -36 | -14 | -25 |
zRS: Defensive runs saved above average using zone rating
uRS: Defensive runs saved above average using UZR
aRS: Average of zRS and uRS
The primary big disparity between ZR and UZR is the Green Monster. Standard zone rating counts chances off the wall as playable for some bizarre reason, whereas UZR does not. Shortstop also seems diametrically opposite. When UZR is better than zone rating, it usually means the position saw a higher than normal distribution of difficult chances. Zone rating treats all chances the same, whereas UZR adjusts for batted ball velocity, handedness of the batter/pitcher and GB/FB tendencies which should help adjust for the difficulty of chances.
Because of the issues with LF and SS, the Red Sox were probably closer to a -14 team than a -36 team. Either way, they weren't very good.
Jason Bay has generally not been a good defender, and as a Met he's no longer their problem. Even though Jacoby Ellsbury is really fast and looks like a good defender, the metrics were less than impressed. Mike Lowell's hip issue severely impacted his lateral range, and it looks like he's not long for Boston at this point.
In signing Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro as the replacements for Bay, Lowell and Nick Green, the Red Sox signed three players who are good defenders. Adding them to Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and J.D. Drew who are all good defenders appears to turn a Red Sox weakness into a strength.
So how much of a strength is it? Here's how CAIRO has what looks like their primary roster projected offensively and defensively.
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | lf | 640 | .291/.348/.403 | 85 | 418 | 18 | 2 | 2.1 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 2b | 650 | .304/.373/.458 | 96 | 408 | 34 | 8 | 4.2 |
| Victor Martinez | C | 575 | .299/.376/.474 | 85 | 359 | 35 | 0 | 3.5 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 1b | 615 | .290/.392/.499 | 99 | 374 | 29 | 4 | 3.3 |
| David Ortiz | dh | 600 | .264/.371/.507 | 94 | 377 | 21 | 0 | 2.1 |
| J.D. Drew | rf | 525 | .269/.383/.472 | 79 | 324 | 23 | 2 | 2.5 |
| Mike Cameron | cf | 600 | .244/.332/.431 | 77 | 401 | 19 | 5 | 2.4 |
| Adrian Beltre | 3b | 575 | .264/.315/.439 | 66 | 397 | 8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Marco Scutaro | ss | 560 | .273/.354/.388 | 67 | 362 | 18 | 3 | 2.0 |
| Starters Total | 5340 | .277/.360/.449 | 748 | 3418 | 204 | 33 | 23.8 | |
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Jeremy Hermida | lf | 355 | .259/.340/.427 | 45 | 234 | 8 | -3 | 0.5 |
| Bill Hall | 3b | 234 | .218/.287/.390 | 23 | 167 | 0 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Jason Varitek | c | 215 | .221/.325/.368 | 23 | 145 | 4 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Jed Lowrie | ss | 120 | .251/.332/.414 | 15 | 80 | 4 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Tug Hulett | 2b | 80 | .235/.308/.359 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench Total | 1004 | .238/.321/.399 | 114 | 682 | 16 | -1 | 1.5 | |
| Player | PA | BR | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR | |
| Team Total | 6344 | 861 | .271/.354/.441 | 4100 | 220 | 32 | 25.5 |
BR: Absolute linear weights batting runs based on estimated playing time, not adjusted for position.
Outs: Outs made while batting. Team outs should add up to around 4100 over a full season.
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level at position.
RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR pro-rated to projected playing time.
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS).
Moving Ellsbury to LF from CF makes him a plus defender according to my projections, so it looks like the Red Sox can run out a defense that is at least average at every position (I'm not including catchers for now, so Victor Martinez may change that). If these numbers are to be believed, the red Sox have probably made themselves 40 to 50 runs better defensively with the moves they've made this offseason.
Standard caveats about defensive metrics having more uncertainty than offensive or pitching metrics apply here, so don't take this as definitive proof or anything.
I haven't really finalized their pitching depth chart so I'm not going to post it yet, but with the one I have worked up they look like a .598 Pythagenpat team right now, which is .025 points worse than the Yankees were when I ran their numbers. That's the difference between a 97 win team and 101 win team in a neutral league, though we probably want to knock off a couple of wins frome each team to account for being in the AL East.
So right now, I still think the Yankees are better by a few games, but in a 162 game season that's not much of a difference, and of course a lot can change between now and the end of the 2010 season.
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