Tuesday, November 4, 2008
SI.com- Heyman: Yankees make Sabathia top target
DANA POINT, Calif.—Determined to overhaul and upgrade their skimpy starting rotation, the Yankees have made superstar free agent CC Sabathia their top winter target and, once baseball’s quiet period expires, intend to offer him a contract to top the record $137.5-million the Mets gave Johan Santana last year, according to people familiar with the Yankees’ plans.
That’s surprising. NOT.
Here’s Sabathia’s range of CAIRO projections as a Yankee in 2009.
Sabathia projects as the most valuable free agent available this offseason in terms of runs above replacement level, although Teixiera is close.
And although the numbers I looked at last week for pitchers from ages 28-34 weren’t great, here’s a forecast for Sabathia over the next seven years, with the standard disclaimers and caveats about projecting pitchers applying.
I do still intend to re-do the pitcher aging study from last week with some of the suggested from posters in the thread, but until I do this is what a non-injured Sabathia’s outlook is. Assuming a marginal win value of $5M in 2009 increasing by $250K per season, that overall performance would be worth around 7 years, $127M. If the actual marginal win value for the Yankees in 2009 is $6M, then it’s worth $150M.
So yeah, Sabathia’s a risk, but so’s any pitcher. He’s also young, throws gas, throws strikes, throws innings, and won’t cost the Yankees anything but a first round draft pick. Since they already have a protected pick for not signing Gerrit Cole and look to recoup more based on how their own free agents shake out, that’s not a big deal either.
And I really don’t want to hear the nonsense about how ‘Sabathia only pitches once every five days’. The top position players in the league bat 700 times in a season. A pitcher like Sabathia will face over 900 batters in a season. Which one has more impact, seriously?
And I generally avoid politics, but I ask that if you must talk about the election today, be civil. Thanks.
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