Sunday, October 25, 2009
Should the Yankees Pitch Sabathia Instead of Pettitte in Game 6?
Since this topic has come up, here's what the numbers say. Bear in mind, the Yankees have no intention of changing their rotation, so this is simply theoretical.First up, here's what it looks like if neither team changes who is scheduled to pitch Games 6 and 7.
| Matchup | LAA | NYY |
| Saunders vs. Pettitte | .396 | .604 |
| Weaver vs. Sabathia | .389 | .611 |
| ALCS Win Probability | .154 | .846 |
The listed numbers are the probabilities for each team to win based on the pitching matchups and adjusting for homefield advantage, assuming each team uses their best lineup. So the Yankees have a 84.6 probability of winning the ALCS with the current matchups
If they throw Sabathia in Game 6 and reserve Pettitte for a Game 7 if needed, here's what those numbers look like, assuming no changes for the Angels.
| Matchup | LAA | NYY |
| Saunders vs. Sabathia | .334 | .666 |
| Weaver vs. Pettitte | .451 | .549 |
| ALCS Win Probability | .151 | .849 |
If the Angels take advantage of the extra off day to pitch Weaver tonight and Lackey on three days rest in a Game 7 if needed, here's what that looks like, but given the fact that Saunders has pitched well over the second half of the season and pitched well in Game 2, it's doubtful the Angels would skip him.
| Matchup | LAA | NYY |
| Weaver vs. Pettitte | .451 | .549 |
| Lackey vs. Sabathia | .382 | .618 |
| ALCS Win Probability | .172 | .828 |
Lastly, if the Angels do shuffle their rotation and the Yankees counter it with Sabathia in Game 6, here's what that would look like.
| Matchup | LAA | NYY |
| Weaver vs. Sabathia | .389 | .611 |
| Lackey vs. Pettitte | .444 | .556 |
| ALCS Win Probability | .173 | .827 |
I've assumed no difference in any of the pitchers' projections based on them pitching with a varying rest.
Basically, it makes a minimal difference overall if the Yankees pitch Pettitte tonight and reserve Sabathia in case a Game 7 is needed, whether the Angels juggle their rotation or not. With the fact that holding Sabathia tonight makes him available sooner in the World Series if by some miracle the Yankees win today, I don't see an argument to pitch Sabathia in tonight's game. It's not like they're throwing Sergio Mitre out there if they use Pettitte.
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