Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Should Jesus Montero Be an Option for Left Field?
Since the question came up in the prior thread, let’s see if the Yankees should at least consider using Jesus Montero in the outfield.
Obviously, we should know that:
a) We don’t know how he’d look defensively in the outfield.
b) Offense from a catcher is far more valuable than similar offense from an outfielder.
c) Montero’s still really young, and although he’s a very good hitting prospect, he probably still doesn’t project all that well in general in 2010 because of where he is in his development.
d) There’s a fair amount of uncertainty that Montero will ever be a good enough defensive catcher to stay there in the majors, although his performance in 2009 was somewhat promising in that regard.
e) A catcher is simply not going to be able to play as frequently as someone at a less demanding position.
Here’s something that we may or may not know. According to research done by Tangotiger in the 2009 Hardball Times Annual, the average catcher will hit about 12% better when he’s not playing catcher. This is pretty significant, and goes above and beyond any typical positional adjustments made for catchers.
So what does this all mean for Jesus Montero? Let’s see…
First up, here's Montero's 2010 CAIRO projection as a catcher.| % | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 80% | 126 | 525 | 493 | 59 | 139 | 29 | 2 | 26 | 75 | 38 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | .282 | .340 | .511 | 80 | 34 | .366 |
| 65% | 123 | 510 | 479 | 54 | 129 | 26 | 2 | 23 | 69 | 34 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .270 | .325 | .478 | 70 | 25 | .346 |
| Baseline | 120 | 500 | 470 | 49 | 121 | 23 | 1 | 21 | 63 | 31 | 73 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .258 | .310 | .444 | 61 | 17 | .327 |
| 35% | 114 | 475 | 446 | 43 | 110 | 20 | 1 | 17 | 57 | 27 | 73 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .247 | .292 | .413 | 51 | 10 | .305 |
| 20% | 108 | 450 | 423 | 38 | 99 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 50 | 23 | 73 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .235 | .273 | .382 | 42 | 3 | .284 |
| 2009 | 92 | 376 | 354 | 33 | 96 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 21 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .271 | .314 | .449 | 47 | 14 | .329 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
In the interest of full disclosure, that projection is pretty optimistic. Some of his other projections are:
CHONE: .255/.296/.425, .314 wOBA.
ZiPS: .273/.315/.416, .320 wOBA.
In actuality though, CAIRO is not the most optimistic projection I've seen on Montero. The Hardball Times projections (which are not yet publically available) have him projected at .291/.342/.501, .345 wOBA.
So if CAIRO's the baseline, then CHONE says he'd be seven runs worse over 500 PAs, ZiPS says he'd be four runs worse, and the Hardball Times projection says he'd be seven runs better. Since we're really just comparing Montero to himself, the projection we use isn't that important right now, so I'll stick with CAIRO.
So looking at the offense from a catcher being more valuable, if Montero's projected CAIRO baseline would be worth 17 runs above a replacement level catcher over 500 PAs, if we moved that same offense to LF it'd be worth close to a win less overall. However, if we assume that he can play more frequently as a LF, he can gain some of that value back. If we then also consider the fact that he may hit better by not playing catcher, he picks up some more value. If he can instead hit his 65% forecast and get 600 PAs, he's worth 19 BRAR in LF, compared to 17 BRAR in 500 PAs as a catcher.
Given the margin of error inherent in projections, I'd say a projected difference of 2 BRAR isn't very significant, and we can just say he'd probably be about equally valuable in either scenario.
So then the question becomes twofold. How would his defense look at either position? Frankly I'd be talking out of my ass if I tried to put numbers to that right now. Then the next question is, given the talent on hand in the organization, is catcher or left field the bigger area of need? Given the depth of the Yankee catching prospects in the minors right now as well as the dearth of outfield prospects, you could possibly make the argument that Montero in LF would fill a bigger need.
Of course, if he can't play the outfield it's moot. Or if he can't stick at catcher it's also moot.
Page 1 of 1 pages: