Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Royals (64-94) @ Yankees (102-56), Wednesday, September 30, 2009, 7:05pm **Mismatch Chatter**
Lineups
Kansas City Royals
Mitch Maier, LF (.249/.333/.342, 0.2 WAR)
Tug Hulett, 2B (.071/.071/.071, -0.3 WAR)
Billy Butler, 1B (.304/.364/.500, 1.3 WAR)
Brayan Pena, DH (.268/.310/.451, 0.0 WAR)
Alberto Callaspo, 3B (.299/.356/.453, 1.9 WAR)
Mark Teahen, RF (.269/.322/.407, -0.4 WAR)
John Buck, C (.236/.289/.466, -0.4 WAR)
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS (.246/.269/.353, -2.8 WAR)
Josh Anderson, CF (.236/.271/.301, -0.7 WAR)
Total, (.270/.322/.413, -1.2 WAR)
1898 St. Louis Browns
Derek Jeter, SS (.333/.402/.461, 5.5 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.281/.364/.489, 3.0 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.295/.385/.573, 4.9 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.404/.523, 3.3 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.278/.371/.518, 2.1 WAR)
Jorge Posada, C (.290/.369/.534, 1.6 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.322/.352/.525, 0.0 WAR 3.5 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.250/.368/.496, 2.9 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.273/.333/.418, 0.9 WAR)
Total, (.292/.373/.504, 24.2 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: -100.0%
I hope everyone is enjoying the 2009 season as much as I am, but there’s something at stake today that has major ramifications in 2010. The Yankees are 102 and 56, but their Pythagenpat record is only 95-63. When planning for 2010, we need to assess wins and losses compared to how good the team really is, and Pythagenpat would be a better thing to use than actual record. With Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui coming off the books, the Yankees are going to be about six wins worse next year right off the bat. Six wins from a 102 win team still leaves you with a 96 win team. But if the Yankees are actually really a 95 win team, those six wins means they would be an 89 win team and would likely miss the playoffs.
The Yankees can secure their playoff spot for next year by winning the rest of the games this year by large margins and getting their Pythagenpat record as high as they can. That makes every game during the rest of this season very important. Starting with tonight’s game.
It’s been a series of very difficult games for the Yankees of late, and tonight is no exception. Robinson Tejeda is having a very strong year for Kansas City, although it’s mostly been as a reliever. He’s allowed just 39 hits in 68.2 innings and has struck out 82 batters. Over the last 28 days, opponents have hit .121/.259/.187 against him. Opposing him is Joba Chamberlain, who has allowed a line of .300/.360/.550 over the last 28 days. Assuming both pitchers face 27 batters in a game, we would expect Tejeda to allow 1.3 runs and Chamberlain to allow 5.3 runs.
So basically, the Yankees are starting the game down by four runs. Maybe they’ll get lucky and Yuniesky Betancourt will boot a few routine grounders and Kyle Farnsworth will pitch again and the Yanks can pilfer a 6-5 win.
Go Yankees.
Page 1 of 1 pages: