Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Roy Halladay vs. Cliff Lee
Answering Rich‘s request, here’s how CAIRO would project Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee over the next four years. Both are projected as Phillies with the same offense behind them.
Roy Halladay
| Year | Age | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 2010 | 32 | 18 | 8 | 233 | 206 | 82 | 79 | 20 | 40 | 204 | 3.18 | 3.03 | 3.15 | 71.6 | 7.2 |
| 2011 | 33 | 17 | 8 | 224 | 199 | 81 | 75 | 19 | 37 | 183 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.24 | 67.3 | 6.7 |
| 2012 | 34 | 16 | 8 | 208 | 185 | 74 | 68 | 18 | 33 | 171 | 3.19 | 2.95 | 3.22 | 63.6 | 6.4 |
| 2013 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 198 | 176 | 71 | 66 | 17 | 32 | 163 | 3.25 | 3.01 | 3.25 | 59.5 | 6.0 |
| Total | 66 | 31 | 863 | 765 | 308 | 288 | 73 | 142 | 721 | 3.22 | 3.00 | 3.21 | 262.1 | 26.2 |
Cliff Lee
| Year | Age | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 2010 | 31 | 17 | 9 | 233 | 231 | 97 | 88 | 20 | 51 | 189 | 3.73 | 3.39 | 3.43 | 57.5 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | 32 | 15 | 9 | 211 | 211 | 84 | 78 | 18 | 42 | 164 | 3.59 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 55.4 | 5.5 |
| 2012 | 33 | 14 | 8 | 200 | 199 | 80 | 73 | 17 | 39 | 149 | 3.59 | 3.31 | 3.46 | 52.3 | 5.2 |
| 2013 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 191 | 192 | 77 | 71 | 16 | 37 | 143 | 3.61 | 3.32 | 3.46 | 49.7 | 5.0 |
| Total | 59 | 35 | 835 | 834 | 337 | 309 | 71 | 169 | 645 | 3.63 | 3.33 | 3.43 | 214.9 | 21.5 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
I upped Lee's 2010 forecast innings to match Halladay, but his 2007 still affects his 2010 forecast. Of course, an objective projection system shouldn't ignore that 2007, even if we have reasons to think it's irrelevant.
It's an upgrade for Philly in the area of about one win per season, even assuming they could've inked Lee to the same extension going forward, which doesn't sound like it was ever a realistic possibility.
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