Monday, August 25, 2008
Robinson Cano and Balls in Play
Coming into 2008, Robinson Cano seemed to be on the verge of solidifying himself as one of the top second basemen in baseball. He projected to be worth three wins above a replacement-level second baseman when offense, defense and baserunning were factored in.Instead, Cano has been a disappointment, hitting .269/.307/.410 instead of his average projection of .308/.348/.482. Cano's 20% CAIRO projection was for a line .287/.313/.422, so he's been more than one standard deviation worse.
Cano has been hitting better lately. Since June 24 his line is .325/.356/.527 which is a lot like the full-season line I would have hoped for and has finally pushed his offense above replacement level.
A look at Cano's splits before and after June 24th show that he has possibly been unlucky this year.
| Dates | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | GDP |
| 4/1 - 6/22 | 296 | 277 | 63 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 25 | 3 | 7 |
| 6/24 - 8/24 | 216 | 203 | 66 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 10 |
| Total | 512 | 480 | 129 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 47 | 4 | 17 |
| Dates | BABIP | xBABIP | dBABIP | xH | AVG | OBP | SLG | xAVG | xOBP | xSLG |
| 4/1 - 6/22 | .238 | .298 | .060 | 15 | .227 | .270 | .325 | .282 | .322 | .380 |
| 6/24 - 8/24 | .335 | .345 | .010 | 2 | .325 | .356 | .527 | .334 | .365 | .536 |
| Total | .277 | .318 | .041 | 18 | .269 | .307 | .410 | .306 | .342 | .448 |
| Dates | BIP | FB | GB | LD | FB% | GB% | LD% | BRAR | pBRAR | xpBRAR |
| 4/1 - 6/22 | 253 | 83 | 125 | 45 | .328 | .494 | .178 | -14 | -7 | 0 |
| 6/24 - 8/24 | 182 | 56 | 85 | 41 | .308 | .467 | .225 | 7 | 12 | 13 |
| Total | 435 | 139 | 210 | 86 | .320 | .483 | .198 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
xBABIP: Expected BABIP (Line drive% + .12)
dBABIP: xBABIP - BABIP
xH: Expected hits
AVG: Batting average
OBP: On base percentage
SLG: Slugging
xAVG: Expected average (adding in xH as singles)
xOBP: Expected on base precentage (adding in xH as singles)
xSLG: Expected slugging precentage (adding in xH as singles)
BIP: Balls in play
FB: Fly balls
GB: Ground balls
LD: Line drives
FB%: Fly balls divided byBalls in play
GB%: Ground balls divided byBalls in play
LD%: Line drives divided byBalls in play
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement using linear weights(not position-adjusted)
pBRAR: Batting runs above replacement(position-adjusted)
xpBRAR: Expected pBRAR (adding in xH as singles)
As the numbers above show, Cano hit .227/.270/.325 over his first 296 PAs. If you use the formula LD% + 0.12 to get his xBABIP(expected batting average on balls in play), you can see that he should have had 15 more hits than he actually had. Adding those into his line as singles would give him a line of .282/.322/.380, which is around replacement level, which is a lot better than he actually did.
We can see that his recent hot streak hasn't been due to better than expected luck. His xBABIP is still higher than his actual BABIP, so there's another two hit shortage.
Adding those 17 or 18 (rounding imprecision) would have him hitting .306/.342/.448. While the slugging would be lower than expected, he'd be worth 13 position-adjusted batting runs above replacement instead of his current five.
Cano is a talented hitter, but he has one major risk factor in his skill set. He doesn't walk enough to support a batting average under .300 and still be a better than average player. I am not a believer that plate discipline can be taught or learned, although I do think it can slightly improve over time. I think plate discipline is tied into physical tools(visual acuity and hand/eye coordination), and it's not just a mindset.
At some point I'm going to look at negative fluke seasons to see if they are predictive. My assumption is that they should be at least partially predictive, although age will probably be a factor in that.
If the Yankees are going to make good on their 4% chance at the playoffs, they need Cano to do what he's done since June 24, and probably more than that.
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