Friday, April 10, 2009
Revised CAIRO Playoff Odds through games of April 9
While tooling around the internets, I found a cool Monte Carlo simulator spreadsheet for the baseball season at a site called xlsSports. I've modified it to import the current standings and then run the season going forward, and I've set it up to use a weighted average of YTD and 2009 projections to figure out the strength of the teams. I've also modified the basic Pythagorean theorem formula it uses to the more accurate PythagenPat formula. Both of those formulas use a team's runs scored and runs allowed to determine the strength of the team and calculate it's winning percentage going forward.Anyway, what this will let me do is run updated playoff odds for the six projection systems I used in the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, as well as with the combined projections whenever I feel like it. I'll create a page where I will keep these updated, but for now here's a sneak peak at the CAIRO version, run 10,000 times.
| System | cairo | |||||||||
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div% | WC% | PO% | Max | Min |
| ALE | TAM | 94.2 | 67.8 | 804 | 695 | 38.9% | 29.1% | 68.0% | 121 | 67 |
| ALE | NYA | 93.7 | 68.3 | 867 | 724 | 35.1% | 29.8% | 65.0% | 122 | 62 |
| ALE | BOS | 92.1 | 69.9 | 843 | 739 | 25.4% | 28.6% | 54.0% | 118 | 67 |
| ALE | TOR | 77.4 | 84.6 | 690 | 717 | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 105 | 50 |
| ALE | BAL | 73.5 | 88.5 | 801 | 870 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 100 | 48 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC | PO% | Max | Min |
| ALC | CLE | 84.4 | 77.6 | 810 | 808 | 38.6% | 1.3% | 39.9% | 112 | 53 |
| ALC | DET | 84.2 | 77.8 | 774 | 764 | 37.4% | 1.2% | 38.6% | 110 | 56 |
| ALC | MIN | 79.2 | 82.8 | 718 | 748 | 13.7% | 0.6% | 14.3% | 106 | 52 |
| ALC | KC | 76.2 | 85.8 | 717 | 835 | 6.5% | 0.3% | 6.8% | 103 | 50 |
| ALC | CHA | 74.1 | 87.9 | 739 | 782 | 3.7% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 102 | 46 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC | PO% | Max | Min |
| ALW | LAA | 86.2 | 75.8 | 768 | 729 | 41.9% | 2.5% | 44.4% | 112 | 57 |
| ALW | OAK | 85.4 | 76.6 | 767 | 752 | 35.7% | 2.6% | 38.3% | 110 | 58 |
| ALW | SEA | 81.7 | 80.3 | 721 | 728 | 17.6% | 1.6% | 19.2% | 114 | 52 |
| ALW | TEX | 76.2 | 85.8 | 820 | 881 | 4.7% | 0.4% | 5.1% | 103 | 47 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC | PO% | Max | Min |
| NLE | NYN | 91.5 | 70.5 | 842 | 778 | 42.4% | 16.3% | 58.7% | 118 | 62 |
| NLE | ATL | 91.3 | 70.7 | 800 | 730 | 40.7% | 16.3% | 57.1% | 119 | 63 |
| NLE | PHI | 86.0 | 76.0 | 834 | 798 | 13.9% | 10.4% | 24.3% | 113 | 54 |
| NLE | FLA | 79.3 | 82.7 | 777 | 836 | 2.6% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 105 | 53 |
| NLE | PIT | 74.2 | 87.8 | 799 | 903 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 102 | 50 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC | PO% | Max | Min |
| NLC | CHN | 96.3 | 65.7 | 845 | 730 | 77.2% | 7.7% | 85.0% | 124 | 69 |
| NLC | STL | 86.7 | 75.3 | 797 | 745 | 13.8% | 14.6% | 28.4% | 113 | 58 |
| NLC | MIL | 82.9 | 79.1 | 780 | 784 | 5.6% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 112 | 55 |
| NLC | CIN | 80.9 | 81.1 | 738 | 781 | 3.1% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 111 | 53 |
| NLC | HOU | 72.8 | 89.2 | 740 | 829 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 100 | 47 |
| NLC | WAS | 70.8 | 91.2 | 763 | 885 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 97 | 42 |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC | PO% | Max | Min |
| NLC | LAN | 90.7 | 71.3 | 818 | 761 | 56.1% | 5.9% | 62.0% | 118 | 63 |
| NLC | SF | 84.7 | 77.3 | 764 | 746 | 18.0% | 5.6% | 23.6% | 112 | 56 |
| NLC | COL | 83.2 | 78.8 | 841 | 822 | 13.1% | 4.4% | 17.5% | 111 | 58 |
| NLC | ARI | 82.5 | 79.5 | 739 | 724 | 11.0% | 3.8% | 14.8% | 111 | 57 |
| NLC | SD | 75.8 | 86.2 | 729 | 820 | 1.8% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 101 | 49 |
RF: Runs for
RA: Runs against
Div%: Percentage of times the team won their division
WC%: Percentage of times the team won the wild card
PO%: Playoff % (Div% + WC%)
Max: High win total
Min: Low win total
One note, this is a blatant ripoff of Baseball Prospectus's various Playoff Odds Reports, except that I know what the input data is so I'm more comfortable with it. If anyone sees anything that doesn't look right, let me know.
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