The Curse of... oh, let's say, Clay Bellinger:



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Newsday - Davidoff: Pettitte not happy with Yankees right now
(94 Comments - 1/8/2009 3:54:28 pm)

Yanks inclined to lower $10M Pettitte offer
(71 Comments - 1/8/2009 9:21:27 am)

Daily News: Mark Teixeira’s wife Leigh nudged hubby toward Yankees
(63 Comments - 1/7/2009 6:39:52 pm)

ESPN: Yankees will be must-see TV
(149 Comments - 1/6/2009 11:07:22 pm)

NY Daily News: Yanks almost ready to unveil Teixeira
(34 Comments - 1/6/2009 2:02:26 pm)

Salt Lake Tribune - Klapisch: Does Tex signing mean end for Jeter?
(178 Comments - 1/5/2009 8:15:48 pm)

Yankees.com: Big signings affecting Pettitte’s return
(94 Comments - 12/31/2008 12:36:41 pm)

An Early Look at the 2009 AL East
(70 Comments - 12/29/2008 10:26:38 am)

Merry Christmas, Red Sox Fans
(90 Comments - 12/26/2008 9:49:47 am)

So Who’s Got the Best Rotation in the AL East Now?
(122 Comments - 12/24/2008 10:24:16 pm)

Player

 Current Projected
Brian Bruney
11 G
15 G
12 IP
16 IP
Dan Giese
11 G
15 G
21.7 IP
29 IP
Damaso Marte
5 G
7 G
4.7 IP
6 IP
Edwar Ramirez
37 G
49 G
40.7 IP
54 IP
Mariano Rivera
44 G
58 G
48.3 IP
64 IP
David Robertson
14 G
19 G
16.3 IP
22 IP
Jose Veras
38 G
50 G
38.7 IP
51 IP
Total
274 G
364 G
328.3 IP
435 IP
Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken

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Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Replacing Manny Ramirez with Jason Bay

Although it's not finalized yet, there are pretty strong rumors that Manny Ramirez is heading out of Boston in a series of trades that will end up with Jason Bay manning left field in Fenway. My first reaction was, great, Manny kills the Yankees, but realistically, if you look at the numbers, it's a fairly even swap, perhaps even a slight upgrade.

First, here's how their offense compares, using their 2008 projections, their actual 2008 YTD performance, their revised projection for the rest of the season, and their final season totals.

Ramirez,Manny AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS AVG OBP SLG BR/650 pBRAA pBRAR
Projection 442 75 123 26 0 23 98 71 98 5 0 1 .278 .384 .493 103 14.5 28.0
YTD 362 66 109 22 1 20 68 51 86 8 1 0 .301 .399 .533 113 18.4 29.3
Rest of Year 181 31 52 11 0 10 39 27 42 3 0 0 .286 .388 .516 108 7.6 13.1
Year End Total 543 97 161 33 1 30 107 78 128 11 1 0 .296 .395 .527 111 26.0 42.4
Bay,Jason AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS AVG OBP SLG BR/650 pBRAA pBRAR
Projection 565 92 150 32 2 28 89 81 149 6 9 0 .265 .363 .478 99 14.2 31.2
YTD 388 71 110 23 2 22 62 59 86 2 7 0 .284 .381 .523 110 17.5 29.2
Rest of Year 194 34 54 12 1 10 34 28 48 2 3 0 .277 .376 .508 106 7.5 13.3
Year End Total 582 105 164 35 3 32 96 87 134 4 10 0 .281 .379 .518 109 24.9 42.4


BR/650: Batting runs by linear weights (not position-adjusted or compared to average)
pBRAA: Batting runs above average, position-adjusted
pBRAR: Batting runs above replacement, position-adjusted

Given the margin of error in these numbers, it's safe to say that those are basically equivalent projections. While Manny may seem like the scarier offensive player, it's because we've gotten used to the Manny that terrorized opposing pitchers during his peak. He's not that player any more, although still quite good. But 36 year old Manny is probably not significantly better than 29 year Jason Bay offensively, especially if you factor in the likelihood of better durability for Bay.

So the Red Sox get rid of a clubhouse issue and don't figure to lose much offensively because of it, although it's possible there will be an adjustment period for Bay that suppresses his value somewhat.

Then there's the defensive side of the equation.

YEAR LG Tm POS Player Name Age GP Inn PM CH ZR Diff RS RS/162
2005 NL Pit LF Jason Bay 26 146 1186 261 304 .859 -2 -2 -2
2006 NL Pit LF Jason Bay 27 157 1373 308 367 .839 -8 -7 -7
2007 NL Pit LF Jason Bay 28 142 1237 264 319 .828 -13 -11 -12
2008 NL Pit LF Jason Bay 29 104 912 171 212 .807 -12 -10 -16
Total 549 4708 1004 1202 .835 -35 -30 -9
Proj 130 1129 235 284 .828 -11 -9 -12
YEAR LG Tm POS Player Name Age GP Inn PM CH ZR Diff RS RS/162
2005 AL Bos LF Manny Ramirez 33 149 1225 237 326 .727 -43 -36 -43
2006 AL Bos LF Manny Ramirez 34 123 1031 172 248 .694 -39 -32 -45
2007 AL Bos LF Manny Ramirez 35 120 995 179 251 .713 -37 -31 -45
2008 AL Bos LF Manny Ramirez 36 65 528 94 127 .740 -14 -11 -31
Total 457 3779 682 952 .716 -133 -110 -42
Proj 102 838 149 208 .717 -29 -24 -39
YEAR* LG Tm POS Player Name Age GP Inn PM CH ZR Diff RS RS/162
2005 AL Bos LF Manny Ramirez 33 149 1225 237 326 .727 -13 -10 -12
2006 AL Bos LF Manny Ramirez 34 123 1031 172 248 .694 -18 -14 -20
2007 AL Bos LF Manny Ramirez 35 120 995 179 251 .713 -14 -11 -16
2008 AL Bos LF Manny Ramirez 36 65 528 94 127 .740 -3 -2 -7
Total 457 3779 682 952 .716 -48 -38 -15
Proj 102 838 149 208 .717 -10 -8 -13


GP: Games played
Inn: Defensive innings at position
PM: Plays made
CH: Fieldable chances as defined in zone rating
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/CH)
Diff: Plays made by an average defender subtraced from individual plays made
RS: Runs saved compared to average (Diff times run value for a play not made)
RS/162: RS pro-rated to 1440 defensive innings

You'll notice two sets of numbers for Manny here. The first set is his un-adjusted numbers for zone rating. However, there's a flaw with how zone rating is scored in Fenway which makes those numbers useless. Balls off the wall are considered fieldable for some bizarre reason. So what I did last year and what I'm doing this year is trying to figure out the rough impact of that. What I've found is Fenway zone rating is about .150 - .200 lower than everywhere else, so I re-calculate plays made for Boston LF by an average of Fenway's ZR and the league average ZR. On a full-season basis that's about a 15-20 run increase.

Anyhoo. Bay's not a very good defensive player, probably around the level of Hideki Matsui or so. Manny seems to be similar, maybe a few runs worse. So really, defense is a wash as well over one-third of a season.

The moral of the post? Don't celepBRAte celebrate too much if Boston swaps Manny for Bay. It may feel like it, because we all remember Manny from his prime, but it doesn't make Boston any worse of a team on paper, and it could be beneficial in the clubhouse, whether that's really of much significance or not. Basically, the Red Sox would be getting a younger, cheaper version of the 2008 Manny Ramirez.

--Posted at 10:39 pm by SG / 29 Comments | - (123)


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