Sunday, September 27, 2009
RedSox (91-63) @ Yankees (99-56), Sunday, September 27, 2009, 1:05pm **Mismatch Chatter**
Lineups
Boston Red Sox
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (.300/.347/.416, 1.5 WAR)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (.297/.369/.442, 4.5 WAR)
Jason Bay, LF (.265/.385/.542, 3.1 WAR)
Kevin Youkilis, 1B (.303/.412/.539, 4.7 WAR)
David Ortiz, DH (.236/.329/.460, 0.4 WAR)
Mike Lowell, 3B (.290/.337/.479, 0.5 WAR)
J.D. Drew, RF (.269/.387/.498, 3.8 WAR)
, C (.208/.313/.390, 0.9 WAR)
Alex Gonzalez, SS (.295/.301/.465, 0.8 WAR)
Total, (.275/.360/.471, 20.2 WAR)
1935 Boston Braves
Derek Jeter, SS (.332/.401/.461, 5.5 WAR)
Brett Gardner, CF (.279/.347/.397, 1.5 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.293/.383/.563, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.404/.527, 3.3 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.280/.373/.524, 2.2 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.249/.368/.491, 2.8 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.321/.352/.519, 3.4 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, LF (.270/.330/.411, 0.8 WAR)
Jose Molina, CF (.216/.291/.264, -0.6 WAR)
Total, (.290/.370/.487, 23.6 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: -100.0%
Reducing the AL East magic number to 3: Important
Reducing the AL East magic number to 1: More important
Clinching the AL East at home against your bitter rivals: Most important
The Yankees can clinch the AL East today in their most important game of the season. It won’t be easy, because they’re facing Paul Byrd.
On June 13, 2006, Byrd held the Yankees to one run over seven innings. Andy Pettitte has made 30 starts this season, and has given up at least one run in 29 of them. So the odds of the Yankees having a lead after seven innings is 3.3%. Since Boston’s bullpen cannot be scored on, that means they face very long odds today. Odds on the order of -100.0%.
Maybe they’ll get lucky and Byrd will be a little off, and the umpires make enough bad calls against the Boston hitters to let Pettitte allow no runs, and can squeak this one out.
Go Yankees.
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