Saturday, September 26, 2009
RedSox (91-62) @ Yankees (98-56), Saturday, September 26, 2009, 4:10pm **Mismatch Chatter**
Lineups
Boston Red Sox
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (.302/.349/.419, 1.6 WAR)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (.299/.371/.445, 4.6 WAR)
Victor Martinez, C (.301/.379/.478, 2.8 WAR)
Kevin Youkilis, 1B (.304/.411/.542, 4.7 WAR)
Mike Lowell, 3B (.291/.338/.481, 0.5 WAR)
David Ortiz, DH (.237/.331/.463, 0.5 WAR)
Rocco Baldelli, RF (.262/.323/.454, 0.0 WAR)
Jed Lowrie, SS (.158/.219/.246, -0.2 WAR)
Brian Anderson, LF (.236/.312/.328, -0.2 WAR)
Total, (.283/.357/.456, 14.3 WAR)
2003 Detroit Tigers
Derek Jeter, SS (.330/.398/.460, 5.3 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.284/.365/.494, 3.0 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.293/.383/.566, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.288/.407/.532, 3.4 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.280/.374/.526, 2.3 WAR)
Jorge Posada, C (.286/.363/.528, 1.4 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.321/.351/.515, 3.3 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.248/.365/.491, 2.7 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.272/.331/.413, 0.9 WAR)
Total, (.292/.372/.502, 27.0 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: -100.0%
I have a confession to make. There are times where I say that games are important when they really aren’t. However, that’s not the case today. The Red Sox lead the season series against the Yankees 9-7. It is not possible to make the claim that you are better than a team that beats you in the season series. If the Yankees don’t win today, there is no chance for them to not lose the season series.
That will cast a pall on the entire 2009 season, regardless of how it ends. Even if by some miracle the Yankees make it through the crapshoot that is the MLB playoffs, Boston will always have bragging rights that they took the 2009 season series.
We can’t be having a pall on the entire 2009 season, can we? Ergo, the importance of this game is plainly obvious.
It won’t be easy to win today, just like it didn’t seem like it would be yesterday. C.C. Sabathia is having a fine season, with an 18-7 record and 3.31 ERA. He’s got a .720 winning percentage in his decisions, which is very good.
Daisuke Matsuzaka scoffs at that. Last season, he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA.
Wins
Matsuzaka 2008: 18
Sabathia 2009: 18
Advantage: Even
Losses
Matsuzaka 2008: 3
Sabathia 2009: 7
Advantage: Matsuzaka
ERA
Matsuzaka 2008: 2.90
Sabathia 2009: 3.31
Advantage: Matsuzaka
Matsuzaka is clearly better than Sabathia head to head. But you’re probably thinking, “why would we ignore Matsuzaka’s 2009?” That’s a fair point.
In 2009, Sabathia has given up four or more runs in a game 11 times. Matsuzaka has done it only six times. Not just that, but Sabathia has given up 16 HRs, Matsuzaka only nine. Not just that, but Sabathia has walked 46 batters, whereas Matsuzaka has only walked 22. And even though hits allowed can be skewed by the defense behind you, Matsuzaka has held opposing hitters to just 70 hits, compared to Sabathia who has allowed 87 MORE at 157. Even if we assumed all those 87 extra hits were singles, that’s a linear weights run differential of 42 runs, or four wins. Further proof that Matsuzaka is better.
Anyway, maybe, just like yesterday, the Yankees will pull off a miracle.
Go Yankees.
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