Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Razzle Fizzle
Injuries and poor performances have led to the Yankees turning to Darrell Rasner to shore up a patchwork rotation. Rasner was doing a very nice job in AAA and through his first four starts in the majors he put up a 1.80 ERA.
IP: 25
H: 19
R: 5
BB: 3
K: 14
FB: 39
GB: 25
LD: 13
Opponents: .209/.234/.341
ERA: 1.80
FIP: 4.00
xFIP: 4.67
11% of flyballs allowed are HRs for the typical pitcher. Rasner’s HR/FB ratio of 7.7% was a little low over his first four starts. He’d also been a little fortunate on balls in play. His FIP shows that his peripherals were closer to a 4.00 ERA and his xFIP shows that if we account for the lower than expected HR rate he was pitching closer to a 4.67 ERA.
Then came the correction. Over Rasners last five starts, batters have teed off.
IP: 26
H: 39
R: 22
BB: 8
K: 21
FB: 32
GB: 37
LD: 27
Opponents:.336/.381/.526
ERA: 7.00
FIP: 3.50
xFIP: 4.26
Well, that’s interesting. According to FIP/xFIP, Rasner’s pitching better now than he had over his first four starts. I don’t necessarily agree with that, because while I think looking at batting average on balls in play is an important part of any pitching analysis, I also think that for a pitcher on the margins, the ability to control BABIP is one of the skills that determine whether or not they can be a useful major league pitcher.
Rasner’s not as good as he pitched over his four starts, and he’s not as bad as he’s pitched over the last five. Hecame into the season projected to put up an ERA in the mid to high 4s, and he’s just about there now. That’s perfectly useful for a fourth or fifth starter. Hopefully he can bounce back a little bit.
Rasner was the primary reason the Yankees fell to Pittsburgh 12-5 last night. He didn’t get any help from his offense or his relievers, as LaTroy Hawkins and Edwar Ramirez gave up 5 runs over three innings. I’d have to think Hawkins is going to be dumped soon. Hell, maybe to make room for Snacks Pontoon on Friday.
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