Thursday, May 14, 2009
Playing Out the Rest of May 1000 Times
I don't know if tonight's game was the best win of the season, but if it wasn't, it's up there. C.C. Sabathia pitched well again, Brett Gardner made a good throw home to nab a potential Blue Jay run, Hideki Matsui returned from a sore hamstring to hit the go-ahead HR, and Mariano Rivera pitched a perfect ninth with better velocity than he's shown this season (at least according to Pitch F/X). A 4-2 road trip has the Yankees back at .500 and heading home for what my be the defining homestand of the season.If you take out C.C.'s first start of the year, he has put up an ERA of 2.96 over 51.2 innings (FIP of 3.62). We can probably stop worrying about him.
In a post last week, regular reader/poster sam had asked about running the rest of May through Diamond Mind to see what we should reasonably expect. I was finally able to get that run. This is for the final 16 games of the month, using the current 25 man roster. So no Posado or Molino, no Bruney, Marte or Wang, no Nady. The games are:
Four games with Minnesota at home.
Three games with Baltimore at home.
Three games with Philadelphia at home.
Three games at Texas.
Three games at Cleveland.
A total of 16 games, 10 at home.
So I ran the rest of May 1000 times. On average, the Yankees went 10-6, broken down like this:
Four games with Minnesota at home (2.4 - 1.6).
Three games with Baltimore at home (2.0 - 1.0).
Three games with Philadelphia at home (1.7 - 1.3).
Three games at Texas. (1.9 - 1.1)
Three games at Cleveland. (1.9 - 1.1)
Here's a look at the different records the Yankees had over this stretch on a percentage basis:
| W - L | Count | % |
| 15 - 1 | 8 | 0.8% |
| 14 - 2 | 19 | 1.9% |
| 13 - 3 | 85 | 8.5% |
| 12 - 4 | 121 | 12.1% |
| 11 - 5 | 196 | 19.6% |
| 10 - 6 | 198 | 19.8% |
| 9 - 7 | 167 | 16.7% |
| 8 - 8 | 120 | 12.0% |
| 7 - 9 | 55 | 5.5% |
| 6 - 10 | 26 | 2.6% |
| 5 - 11 | 7 | 0.7% |
| 4 - 12 | 2 | 0.2% |
I would sign up for 15-1 right now, but would also settle for 14-2 if pressed.
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