Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Phillies (93-69) @ Yankees (103-59), Wednesday, November 4, 2009, 7:57pm **Game Chatter**
Lineups
Philadelphia Phillies
Jimmy Rollins, SS (.250/.295/.423, 1.8 WAR)
Shane Victorino, LF (.292/.356/.445, 2.6 WAR)
Chase Utley, 2B (.282/.397/.508, 7.0 WAR)
Ryan Howard, 1B (.279/.360/.571, 3.8 WAR)
Jayson Werth, RF (.268/.373/.506, 4.3 WAR)
Raul Ibanez, DH (.272/.347/.552, 4.0 WAR)
Pedro Feliz, 3B (.266/.307/.386, 0.8 WAR)
Ben Francisco, LF (.257/.329/.447, 0.2 WAR)
Carlos Ruiz, C (.255/.351/.425, 2.0 WAR)
Total, (.270/.347/.475, 26.6 WAR)
New York Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS (.334/.404/.465, 5.7 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.282/.364/.489, 3.1 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.292/.383/.565, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.402/.532, 3.5 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.274/.366/.509, 1.9 WAR)
Jorge Posada, C (.285/.363/.522, 1.3 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.320/.352/.520, 3.5 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.249/.369/.498, 3.0 WAR)
Brett Gardner, CF (.270/.338/.379, 1.3 WAR)
Total, (.292/.374/.504, 28.0 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: 54.5%
Could tonight be the final game of the 2009 MLB season? As Yankee fans, let’s hope so.
After splitting the first two games at home, the Yankees re-captured home field advantage by taking two of three in Philadelphia. In isolation, taking two of three in Philly should be viewed as a positive thing, but because of the order in which it happened (winning the first two then dropping the last one despite threatening late), it feels like the Yankees blew an opportunity.
So the Yankees are home, which is an advantage. However, the concern that a lot of Yankee fans have is that they’ll be starting Andy Pettitte on three days rest. Given Pettitte’s age, his struggles in his last start, and the fact that he hasn’t pitched on short rest in three years, there are a lot of Yankee fans who are very concerned about how effective he might be.
I’m a little concerned, but given the circumstances of this game, I think the Yankees will ask Pettitte to go all out for as long as he can and not try to pitch deep into the game. If that means he only lasts three or four innings, so be it. If that’s the the case, then I think he can be pretty effective.
Even if Pettitte is good, it won’t be easy to win this game. The Yankees will be facing Pedro Martinez. In 2000, Martinez held opposing hitters to a line of .167/.213/.259 over 817 PAs. If we put that in the context of today’s game, that means over nine innings, the Yankees would get 34 PAs, 33 AB, 5 hits (3 of them 2Bs), and 2 BBs/HBPs. The linear weights value of that is 1.46 runs. The Phillies have played 176 games this season including the postseason, and have scored at least two runs in 89.6% of them. So right off the bat before a pitch has even been thrown, the Yankees are in severe trouble.
In Game 2, Martinez held them to one run over six innings. The Yankees were able to score two in the seventh, but I’d have to think that Charlie Manuel won’t be asking Pedro to pitch into the seventh this time around, so the Yankees may not get a crack at a tired Pedro.
The Yankee offense has also been a disappointment in this series. The fact that they are on the precipice of winning the World Series despite only getting positive offensive contributions from five of their hitters could be viewed as both discouraging and encouraging.
The discouraging thing is that while we should know that slumps are not predictive, we also know that it’s freaking frustrating to watch players like Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano hit like Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa in the most important games of the season. Although our observations are certainly colored by the results, when players are in a slump it sure seems like they won’t come out of it soon enough to help, especially in a short postseason series.
The encouraging thing is that despite the struggles of their key players, the Yankees are leading the series 3-2, and shouldn’t need a ton of improvement from someone like Teixeira or Cano to take Game 6 or Game 7 (if necessary).
With only one or two games left, both teams should be using their best players for every inning and every PA. Hopefully those players decide the game without any poor umpiring or controversy.
From the minute the last out of the World Series is made, just about every team in baseball starts the motions to win the World Series. Every transaction, every decision, every dollar they spend, every hire they make is made with that goal in mind. For decent to good teams, it’s a goal to win the very next one. For rebuilding teams, it’s a goal for the future. That should tell you how important winning the World Series is. It’s the most important thing you can accomplish in baseball.
Given that, how can the possible clincher for the World Series NOT be the most important game of the season? Easy answer, it can’t.
This game is important.
This game is abundantly important.
This game is awfully important.
This game is conspicuously important.
This game is decidedly important.
This game is enormously important.
This game is exceedingly important.
This game is exceptionally important.
This game is extraordinarily important.
This game is highly important.
This game is immeasurably important.
This game is immensely important.
This game is incalculably important.
This game is incomparably important.
This game is incredibly important.
This game is ludicrously important.
This game is markedly important.
This game is notably important.
This game is particularly important.
This game is really important.
This game is ridicilously important.
This game is supremely important.
This game is strikingly important.
This game is vastly important.
This game is INFINITELY important.
YOU CAN"T GET ANY MORE IMPORTANT THAN INFINITELY IMPORTANT, CAN YOU??!1!!111??1?!!?
My heart wouldn’t be able to take a Game 7 either.
Whether the Yankees win or lose this game, it’s been a wild ride for us Yankee fans this year. Let’s hope it ends with a bang tonight.
Go Yankees.
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