Monday, December 21, 2009
NY Post: Yankees GM Cashman eyes starter by new year
With his everyday lineup for 2010 set, Cashman has turned attention to the rotation, and will almost certainly add a starter by New Year’s, according to a major league source.
Cashman is believed to have inquired about Carlos Zambrano, but with the Cubs’ asking price high for the 28-year-old right-hander—who is coming off an injury-plagued 2009—it’s more probable the Yankees will go the free-agent route.
That means selecting from a pool that includes Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro and Ben Sheets, any of whom would slot behind CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte in the Yankees’ rotation.
That’s a shallow pool.
Update (SG): Projections after the jump.
Here are the CAIRO projections for the three listed pitchers if we make them Yankees.Jason Marquis
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 15 | 9 | 216 | 227 | 95 | 86 | 16 | 69 | 121 | 3.96 | 3.61 | 4.11 | 47.7 | 4.8 |
| 65% | 13 | 10 | 206 | 225 | 100 | 91 | 18 | 71 | 110 | 4.37 | 4.00 | 4.38 | 36.1 | 3.6 |
| Baseline | 11 | 10 | 196 | 222 | 105 | 96 | 19 | 72 | 100 | 4.82 | 4.42 | 4.64 | 24.5 | 2.4 |
| 35% | 10 | 10 | 176 | 206 | 99 | 91 | 19 | 68 | 85 | 5.06 | 4.65 | 4.91 | 17.4 | 1.7 |
| 20% | 8 | 9 | 157 | 189 | 92 | 85 | 19 | 64 | 72 | 5.29 | 4.87 | 5.18 | 11.4 | 1.1 |
| 2009 | 15 | 13 | 216 | 242 | 95 | 89 | 15 | 76 | 110 | 3.97 | 3.71 | 4.23 | 47.4 | 4.7 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
Joel Pineiro
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 12 | 7 | 174 | 180 | 74 | 67 | 14 | 26 | 95 | 3.85 | 3.47 | 3.64 | 40.6 | 4.1 |
| 65% | 11 | 8 | 166 | 179 | 79 | 71 | 15 | 28 | 86 | 4.28 | 3.87 | 3.93 | 30.8 | 3.1 |
| Baseline | 9 | 8 | 158 | 177 | 83 | 76 | 17 | 29 | 78 | 4.75 | 4.31 | 4.21 | 21.0 | 2.1 |
| 35% | 8 | 8 | 142 | 166 | 79 | 72 | 17 | 29 | 66 | 5.01 | 4.56 | 4.49 | 14.8 | 1.5 |
| 20% | 7 | 7 | 126 | 152 | 74 | 68 | 17 | 28 | 55 | 5.27 | 4.81 | 4.77 | 9.5 | 0.9 |
| 2009 | 15 | 12 | 214 | 222 | 101 | 89 | 13 | 26 | 101 | 4.24 | 3.75 | 3.45 | 40.5 | 4.1 |
Ben Sheets
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 13 | 5 | 166 | 149 | 59 | 54 | 14 | 32 | 136 | 3.18 | 2.95 | 3.28 | 51.1 | 5.1 |
| 65% | 12 | 6 | 159 | 148 | 63 | 58 | 15 | 34 | 124 | 3.56 | 3.31 | 3.59 | 42.0 | 4.2 |
| Baseline | 10 | 6 | 151 | 147 | 67 | 62 | 17 | 35 | 113 | 3.98 | 3.71 | 3.90 | 33.0 | 3.3 |
| 35% | 9 | 6 | 136 | 138 | 64 | 60 | 17 | 34 | 97 | 4.23 | 3.95 | 4.21 | 26.0 | 2.6 |
| 20% | 8 | 6 | 121 | 128 | 60 | 56 | 17 | 33 | 82 | 4.47 | 4.18 | 4.52 | 19.8 | 2.0 |
For the hell of it, here's how Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes project as starters.
Joba Chamberlain
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 15 | 8 | 204 | 188 | 87 | 77 | 17 | 79 | 203 | 3.85 | 3.40 | 3.59 | 47.6 | 4.8 |
| 65% | 13 | 9 | 194 | 187 | 92 | 81 | 19 | 80 | 187 | 4.26 | 3.77 | 3.90 | 36.5 | 3.7 |
| Baseline | 11 | 9 | 185 | 184 | 97 | 86 | 20 | 80 | 172 | 4.71 | 4.19 | 4.21 | 25.5 | 2.5 |
| 35% | 10 | 9 | 167 | 172 | 92 | 82 | 20 | 76 | 149 | 4.95 | 4.41 | 4.52 | 18.5 | 1.9 |
| 20% | 8 | 8 | 148 | 158 | 85 | 76 | 20 | 71 | 127 | 5.19 | 4.64 | 4.83 | 12.5 | 1.3 |
| 2009 | 9 | 6 | 157 | 162 | 93 | 82 | 18 | 74 | 138 | 5.31 | 4.69 | 4.48 | 11.2 | 1.1 |
Phil Hughes
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 11 | 6 | 154 | 138 | 67 | 63 | 12 | 51 | 140 | 3.94 | 3.68 | 3.48 | 34.4 | 3.4 |
| 65% | 10 | 7 | 147 | 137 | 72 | 67 | 13 | 53 | 128 | 4.39 | 4.11 | 3.82 | 25.4 | 2.5 |
| Baseline | 8 | 7 | 140 | 137 | 76 | 71 | 15 | 54 | 116 | 4.89 | 4.59 | 4.16 | 16.4 | 1.6 |
| 35% | 7 | 7 | 126 | 128 | 72 | 68 | 15 | 52 | 100 | 5.17 | 4.86 | 4.50 | 10.8 | 1.1 |
| 20% | 6 | 6 | 112 | 119 | 68 | 64 | 15 | 49 | 85 | 5.46 | 5.13 | 4.84 | 6.1 | 0.6 |
| 2009 | 8 | 3 | 86 | 66 | 31 | 29 | 7 | 27 | 100 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.96 | 26.2 | 2.6 |
If you could sign Marquis or Pineiro for one year and around $8 million, they wouldn't be awful fourth starters, but neither projects as better than Joba next year and you probably can't get either for one year. While I did project Sheets, I'd caution those projections with massive error bars, because he did not throw a single pitch last year and he had a surgery which may have taken something away from him.
Neither Joba or Hughes projects as a dominant starter, but their projections/performance in 2010 should not just be looked at in terms of their actual value, but also as part of the development curve towards hopefully establishing themselves as starters. While you shouldn't prioritize a single player's development over the team's overall goals, you probably shouldn't impede that potential development with a minimal at best upgrade.
So I'd say yes on Sheets if he'll sign for a moderate base with incentives, no on Marquis or Pineiro at any price. I'd also see about bringing Wang back.
On an unrelated note, if you wanted to read more about Chris Jaffe's book on evaluating managers, Was Watching has an excerpt up on Casey Stengel.
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