Wednesday, November 7, 2007
NY Daily News: Yankees want Miguel Cabrera, won’t trade big three pitchers
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. - If the Yankees want Miguel Cabrera to succeed Alex Rodriguez as their third baseman, it's going to cost them.
Brian Cashman met with the Marlins at about 6 p.m. last night at the GM meetings. No offers were made, but a source with knowledge of the situation said the Marlins made it clear that the Yankees would have to include either Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy in any trade for Cabrera, something the Yankees are not willing to do.
The Yankees would likely offer a deal involving their next tier of prospects, which includes Alan Horne, Humberto Sanchez, Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Tabata.
I can't see the Marlins giving up Cabrera without getting either Hughes or Chamberlain plus more. I've seen some sentiment posted here that Cabrera's not a good target, which is pretty silly. At age 24 he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. There are questions about his work ethic and motivation, but I tend to think it's a product of being on a team that's going nowhere and playing in front of "crowds" of 800-1000 people a night.
Here's Cabrera's range of CAIRO projections for 2008:
| % | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | pBR/650 | pBRAR/650 |
| 80% | 150 | 650 | 567 | 195 | 46 | 3 | 35 | 119 | 80 | 7 | 105 | 5 | 2 | .344 | .435 | .625 | 1.059 | 136 | 51 | 68 |
| 65% | 150 | 650 | 567 | 188 | 43 | 3 | 33 | 114 | 76 | 6 | 110 | 4 | 2 | .332 | .416 | .590 | 1.006 | 126 | 41 | 58 |
| Baseline | 150 | 650 | 567 | 182 | 40 | 2 | 30 | 109 | 72 | 5 | 116 | 4 | 2 | .320 | .397 | .555 | .953 | 116 | 31 | 48 |
| 35% | 150 | 650 | 567 | 175 | 37 | 1 | 27 | 103 | 67 | 4 | 121 | 3 | 4 | .308 | .379 | .521 | .899 | 106 | 20 | 37 |
| 20% | 150 | 650 | 567 | 168 | 34 | 1 | 24 | 98 | 63 | 3 | 127 | 2 | 4 | .296 | .360 | .486 | .846 | 95 | 10 | 27 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
pBRaa/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above average, pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
pBRaR/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement, pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
Remember the last third baseman the Yankees had? I'm forgetting his name right now, but Cabrera projects to be about 5 runs less valuable on offense, so getting Cabrera would definitely fill the offensive hole at third base.
Another thing to factor in is Cabrera's age. He will be 25 in 2008. He's not likely to get much better than he is right now, but he's a very good bet for continued excellent performance for the next 5-10 years. Here's Cabrera's 6 year CAIRO forecast.
| 5 Yr | Age | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | pBRaa/650 | pBRaR/650 |
| 2008 | 25 | 153 | 650 | 567 | 182 | 40 | 2 | 30 | 109 | 72 | 5 | 116 | 4 | 2 | .320 | .397 | .555 | .953 | 116 | 32 | 49 |
| 2009 | 26 | 154 | 663 | 577 | 186 | 41 | 2 | 32 | 116 | 74 | 6 | 117 | 4 | 2 | .322 | .400 | .566 | .966 | 121 | 33 | 50 |
| 2010 | 27 | 152 | 654 | 569 | 183 | 41 | 2 | 32 | 114 | 73 | 6 | 114 | 4 | 2 | .322 | .401 | .566 | .967 | 119 | 33 | 51 |
| 2011 | 28 | 154 | 662 | 574 | 182 | 41 | 2 | 31 | 113 | 76 | 6 | 115 | 4 | 2 | .316 | .398 | .556 | .954 | 118 | 31 | 48 |
| 2012 | 29 | 151 | 648 | 563 | 176 | 39 | 1 | 31 | 110 | 74 | 6 | 114 | 3 | 2 | .312 | .394 | .550 | .944 | 114 | 30 | 47 |
| 2013 | 30 | 148 | 635 | 552 | 171 | 38 | 1 | 30 | 108 | 73 | 6 | 113 | 3 | 2 | .310 | .394 | .546 | .941 | 111 | 29 | 46 |
Cabrera's defense at third base rates pretty poorly by zone rating.
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PM +/- | RS | RS/162 |
| 2003 | NL | Fla | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 20 | 34 | 30 | 275 | 17 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 55 | 68 | .809 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 2005 | NL | Fla | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 22 | 30 | 29 | 238 | 21 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 65 | .754 | -2 | -2 | -12 |
| 2006 | NL | Fla | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 23 | 157 | 157 | 1334 | 114 | 266 | 17 | 33 | 291 | 389 | .748 | -14 | -11 | -12 |
| 2007 | NL | Fla | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 24 | 153 | 152 | 1311 | 100 | 266 | 23 | 33 | 290 | 406 | .714 | -24 | -19 | -21 |
| 2008 | Projection | ??? | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 25 | 115 | 112 | 965 | 78 | 195 | 14 | 23 | 212 | 288 | .736 | -12 | -10 | -14 |
Offense plus defense, Cabrera's probably worth about four wins above a replacement third baseman for the next five to six years. He's also due to get a lot more expensive going forward. I'd love to have him in the middle of the Yankee lineup, but I'd hate to have his defense at third base. I'd think he might be a good fit in RF or 1B. I'm also thinking that moving to a different team and situation may help him get motivated again which could help his defense a bit, but who knows?
If the Yankees could get Cabrera for Ian Kennedy+ without losing Hughes or Chamberlain, I'd be very tempted to do it, but the Marlins are pretty shrewd talent evaluators. They saw something in Hanley Ramirez that had not been borne out in his performance to date and have been rewarded for it. I think someone will overpay for Cabrera in talent, but it won't be the Yankees. They seem very hesitant to trade any of the chips that would be required to get a player of Cabrera's magnitude.
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