The Curse of... oh, let's say, Clay Bellinger:



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Fox Sports- Rosenthal: Yanks’ Mussina to retire after first 20-win season
(45 Comments - 11/20/2008 2:44:11 am)

NY Post: BERNIE: I’M NOT DONE YET
(48 Comments - 11/19/2008 7:12:05 pm)

Newsday: Yankees gunning for Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, sources say
(136 Comments - 11/19/2008 3:09:46 pm)

If the 2009 Season Started On November 16, 2008
(109 Comments - 11/18/2008 2:26:32 pm)

Newsday-O’Brien:  Source: Yankees offer CC Sabathia lucrative deal
(111 Comments - 11/18/2008 10:13:45 am)

Breaking Down the Nick Swisher Trade
(85 Comments - 11/15/2008 10:30:24 am)

ESPN: Sources: Yankees acquire Swisher, send Marquez to White Sox
(109 Comments - 11/14/2008 9:09:43 am)

Is Damaso Marte Worth his New Contract?
(38 Comments - 11/13/2008 5:37:55 pm)

Impacto Deportivo: Exclusiva; Dámaso Marte firma por 12 millones de dólares con los Yanquis
(48 Comments - 11/13/2008 10:19:22 am)

Newsday: Despite economy, Yanks will be big spenders
(19 Comments - 11/12/2008 12:58:50 pm)

Player

 Current Projected
Brian Bruney
11 G
15 G
12 IP
16 IP
Dan Giese
11 G
15 G
21.7 IP
29 IP
Damaso Marte
5 G
7 G
4.7 IP
6 IP
Edwar Ramirez
37 G
49 G
40.7 IP
54 IP
Mariano Rivera
44 G
58 G
48.3 IP
64 IP
David Robertson
14 G
19 G
16.3 IP
22 IP
Jose Veras
38 G
50 G
38.7 IP
51 IP
Total
274 G
364 G
328.3 IP
435 IP
Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken

This site is best viewed with a monitor.

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

NY Daily News: Yankees want Miguel Cabrera, won’t trade big three pitchers

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. - If the Yankees want Miguel Cabrera to succeed Alex Rodriguez as their third baseman, it's going to cost them.

Brian Cashman met with the Marlins at about 6 p.m. last night at the GM meetings. No offers were made, but a source with knowledge of the situation said the Marlins made it clear that the Yankees would have to include either Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy in any trade for Cabrera, something the Yankees are not willing to do.

The Yankees would likely offer a deal involving their next tier of prospects, which includes Alan Horne, Humberto Sanchez, Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Tabata.


I can't see the Marlins giving up Cabrera without getting either Hughes or Chamberlain plus more. I've seen some sentiment posted here that Cabrera's not a good target, which is pretty silly. At age 24 he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. There are questions about his work ethic and motivation, but I tend to think it's a product of being on a team that's going nowhere and playing in front of "crowds" of 800-1000 people a night.

Here's Cabrera's range of CAIRO projections for 2008:

% G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS BR pBR/650 pBRAR/650
80% 150 650 567 195 46 3 35 119 80 7 105 5 2 .344 .435 .625 1.059 136 51 68
65% 150 650 567 188 43 3 33 114 76 6 110 4 2 .332 .416 .590 1.006 126 41 58
Baseline 150 650 567 182 40 2 30 109 72 5 116 4 2 .320 .397 .555 .953 116 31 48
35% 150 650 567 175 37 1 27 103 67 4 121 3 4 .308 .379 .521 .899 106 20 37
20% 150 650 567 168 34 1 24 98 63 3 127 2 4 .296 .360 .486 .846 95 10 27


BR: Batting runs using linear weights
pBRaa/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above average, pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
pBRaR/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement, pro-rated to 650 plate appearances

Remember the last third baseman the Yankees had? I'm forgetting his name right now, but Cabrera projects to be about 5 runs less valuable on offense, so getting Cabrera would definitely fill the offensive hole at third base.

Another thing to factor in is Cabrera's age. He will be 25 in 2008. He's not likely to get much better than he is right now, but he's a very good bet for continued excellent performance for the next 5-10 years. Here's Cabrera's 6 year CAIRO forecast.

5 Yr Age G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS BR pBRaa/650 pBRaR/650
2008 25 153 650 567 182 40 2 30 109 72 5 116 4 2 .320 .397 .555 .953 116 32 49
2009 26 154 663 577 186 41 2 32 116 74 6 117 4 2 .322 .400 .566 .966 121 33 50
2010 27 152 654 569 183 41 2 32 114 73 6 114 4 2 .322 .401 .566 .967 119 33 51
2011 28 154 662 574 182 41 2 31 113 76 6 115 4 2 .316 .398 .556 .954 118 31 48
2012 29 151 648 563 176 39 1 31 110 74 6 114 3 2 .312 .394 .550 .944 114 30 47
2013 30 148 635 552 171 38 1 30 108 73 6 113 3 2 .310 .394 .546 .941 111 29 46


Cabrera's defense at third base rates pretty poorly by zone rating.

YEAR LG Tm POS Player Name Age GP GS Innings PO A E DP PM CH ZR PM +/- RS RS/162
2003 NL Fla 3B Miguel Cabrera 20 34 30 275 17 53 1 2 55 68 .809 3 3 14
2005 NL Fla 3B Miguel Cabrera 22 30 29 238 21 46 2 5 49 65 .754 -2 -2 -12
2006 NL Fla 3B Miguel Cabrera 23 157 157 1334 114 266 17 33 291 389 .748 -14 -11 -12
2007 NL Fla 3B Miguel Cabrera 24 153 152 1311 100 266 23 33 290 406 .714 -24 -19 -21
2008 Projection ??? 3B Miguel Cabrera 25 115 112 965 78 195 14 23 212 288 .736 -12 -10 -14


Offense plus defense, Cabrera's probably worth about four wins above a replacement third baseman for the next five to six years. He's also due to get a lot more expensive going forward. I'd love to have him in the middle of the Yankee lineup, but I'd hate to have his defense at third base. I'd think he might be a good fit in RF or 1B. I'm also thinking that moving to a different team and situation may help him get motivated again which could help his defense a bit, but who knows?

If the Yankees could get Cabrera for Ian Kennedy+ without losing Hughes or Chamberlain, I'd be very tempted to do it, but the Marlins are pretty shrewd talent evaluators. They saw something in Hanley Ramirez that had not been borne out in his performance to date and have been rewarded for it. I think someone will overpay for Cabrera in talent, but it won't be the Yankees. They seem very hesitant to trade any of the chips that would be required to get a player of Cabrera's magnitude.
--Posted at 6:42 am by SG / 141 Comments | - (1829)


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