Friday, December 18, 2009
NBC Sports: Scott Boras “caved on the third year” for Johnny Damon, but it was too little too late
That’s what Mark Feinsand of the Daily News reports, however it still wasn’t enough to get a deal done for Damon as the Yankees wouldn’t pay him $13 million per, even for two years.
Assuming this is true, this is a case of Boras seriously misreading the market for his client, and ultimately doing him a disservice. Damon wanted nothing more than to play for the Yankees, telling Feinsand “I’m not quite sure what I’m going to do. I know there are some teams interested, but the Yankees are the best organization I’ve been a part of so far in my career.”
Have fun in Pittsburgh or Washington Johnny.
To be fair, I grew to like Damon more than I ever thought I would, and he was worth every penny of his contract. He had every right to ask for whatever he wanted to, and the Yankees had every right to make the right business decision and not agree to it. While I don’t think it’s likely he’s back at this point, I wouldn’t rule it out completely.
I’ll use this post to answer the questions that came up in the last thread after the jump.
Can we get a number crunch on NJ vs. Matsui?
Sure. Here's Matsui's CAIRO as a DH for the Yankees.
| % | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 80% | 126 | 504 | 439 | 73 | 129 | 26 | 3 | 22 | 86 | 63 | 64 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | .294 | .383 | .517 | 83 | 22 | .389 |
| 65% | 123 | 490 | 426 | 67 | 120 | 23 | 2 | 20 | 79 | 57 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | .281 | .367 | .481 | 73 | 14 | .368 |
| Baseline | 120 | 480 | 418 | 62 | 112 | 20 | 1 | 17 | 73 | 53 | 69 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | .268 | .350 | .446 | 64 | 6 | .347 |
| 35% | 114 | 456 | 397 | 55 | 101 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 65 | 47 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .256 | .329 | .413 | 54 | -1 | .324 |
| 20% | 108 | 432 | 376 | 49 | 91 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 58 | 41 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .243 | .309 | .381 | 45 | -7 | .302 |
| 2009 | 142 | 528 | 456 | 62 | 125 | 23 | 1 | 25 | 90 | 61 | 75 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .275 | .360 | .494 | 79 | 15 | .367 |
And here's Johnson's.
| % | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 80% | 109 | 463 | 370 | 67 | 110 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 90 | 64 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 9 | .299 | .447 | .492 | 82 | 26 | .418 |
| 65% | 105 | 450 | 359 | 61 | 102 | 23 | 1 | 12 | 55 | 83 | 66 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 10 | .285 | .430 | .455 | 73 | 18 | .397 |
| Baseline | 103 | 441 | 352 | 56 | 95 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 50 | 77 | 69 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 12 | .271 | .412 | .419 | 64 | 11 | .377 |
| 35% | 98 | 419 | 334 | 50 | 86 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 69 | 69 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 10 | .257 | .388 | .385 | 54 | 4 | .352 |
| 20% | 93 | 397 | 317 | 44 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 62 | 69 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | .243 | .363 | .352 | 46 | -3 | .326 |
| 2009 | 130 | 574 | 457 | 71 | 131 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 62 | 96 | 84 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 17 | .287 | .416 | .397 | 80 | 10 | .371 |
DH replacement level is set to a league average hitter, which is why the BRAR for both players may seem lower than their lines would indicate.
While Matsui had a very good 2009 and an outstanding World Series, we can't ignore the fact that he will be 36 in 2010, and that he hadn't been as durable or as productive as he was this past season since at least 2005. While I think the fact that he'd primarily be DHing would continue to keep him healthier and more productive and he would likely exceed that CAIRO projection, there's a level of risk in assuming that.
Johnson's far from the picture of health himself, having missed the entire 2007 season and most of 2008. However, a weighted average of his playing time puts him at 441 PAs. Despite the 39 PA shortfall, he projects about 1/2 win better than Matsui. In addition to the fact that Johnson projects around five runs better, there's the added benefit that because of his high OBP, he allows the Yankees as a team more PAs. If we give Matsui and Johnson 500 PAs, Matsui would make 31 additional outs. If the Yankees score about five runs a game (27 outs) that's another half win that Johnson gives you that's not shown in his own value.
"Granderson + Johnson > Damon + Matsui"
Very much so. If we give each of them 500 PAs:
Damon, LF (1.5 WAR), Matsui, DH (0.6 WAR), Total 2.1 WAR
Granderson, CF (2.7 WAR), Johnson, DH (1.2 WAR), Total 3.9 WAR
CAIRO has Johnson producing 19 runs above average, but not sure how much that would change as a DH in NYS (SG?). But based on Miranda's projection in roughly the same number of PA's, he improves the Yankees by about 1.5 wins. So they go from a 92-93 win team in the AL East to 93-95.
Yeah, if you hold everything constant except for DH, with Miranda at DH for 463 PAs the Yankees would project to score around 843 runs. If you replace Miranda with Johnson for those 463 PAs, you score 12 more runs (855). However, as I mentioned above, you also get fewer outs (43 fewer). Add those extra PAs to the lineup, and you're up to 865 runs. So it's about a 2.0 win upgrade in total.
Nick Johnson has a special place in a lot of Yankees fans' hearts. Johnson arrived during a set of circumstances that converged like a perfect storm. For most fans who hadn't been exposed to the work of Bill James and Pete Palmer, our statistical enlightenment came on the internets in the late 90s and early 00s. Two of the key statistical tenets of the online baseball community were:
- OBP is the most important thing ever
- Proven veterans are expensive and overrated and can be replaced by minor leaguers at a lower cost
In addition, the internet made it a lot easier to follow prospects and minor leaguers. We didn't have to wait for Baseball America to come out every two weeks in print form to read month old stats for a bunch of players we never heard of. We were seeing articles and stat lines and scouting reports everywhere.
So you had Johnson, who was putting up ridiculous OBPs in the minors (.525 in 1999!). He was a prospect, which made him awesome. He would outhit proven veteran Tino Martinez at 1/10 the cost, or at the very least be a hell of DH.
Then he came up in 2001, and didn't hit much but showed the batting eye he was famous for. He hit about league average in 2002, and looked primed to break out in 2003, which he did, hitting .284/.422/.472. We bitched every time Joe Torre benched him for Todd Zeile or pinch-hit for him, and we dreamed about what he'd become as he reached his peak.
Then he was traded as part of a package for Javier Vazquez. Although I liked the trade at the time, it was tough to see Johnson go. Johnson's put up some decent years since then, but also suffered a lot of injuries and it's probably fair to say if he'd done what he's done to this point in his career with the Yankees we'd have considered it disappointing.
Still, it's good to have him back.
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