The Curse of... oh, let's say, Clay Bellinger:








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RedSox (50-37) @ Yankees (45-40), 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(136 Comments - 7/4/2008 1:43:30 am)

NY POST: FINALLY BATS MORE LIKE IT!
(97 Comments - 7/3/2008 6:43:21 pm)

Rangers (44-41) @ Yankees (44-40), 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(132 Comments - 7/3/2008 10:03:45 am)

NY Daily News: Joba Chamberlain, Yankee offense come up short in loss to Rangers
(93 Comments - 7/2/2008 5:49:15 pm)

Rangers (43-41) @ WOE (44-39), 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(445 Comments - 7/2/2008 10:25:02 am)

Yankees.com: Yanks edged by Rangers in opener
(121 Comments - 7/1/2008 6:32:08 pm)

Rangers (42-41) @ Yankees (44-38), 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(362 Comments - 6/30/2008 11:31:39 pm)

The Times and Democrat: Holly Hill’s Brett Gardner called up to New York Yankees
(102 Comments - 6/30/2008 6:18:41 pm)

Easy Schedule Checkpoint - June 29
(16 Comments - 6/30/2008 4:54:52 pm)

Yankees (44-37) @ Mets (39-41), 1:10pm **Game Chatter**
(194 Comments - 6/30/2008 1:32:45 am)



Player

Current Projected
Jonathan Albaladejo
7 G
21 G
13.7 IP
42 IP
Chris Britton
4 G
4 G
7 IP
7 IP
Kyle Farnsworth
27 G
69 G
28.3 IP
73 IP
Dan Giese
2 G
5 G
6.3 IP
16 IP
LaTroy Hawkins
22 G
57 G
26.7 IP
69 IP
Ross Ohlendorf
19 G
49 G
33.3 IP
86 IP
Edwar Ramirez
16 G
41 G
17 IP
44 IP
Mariano Rivera
30 G
68 G
32 IP
73 IP
Jose Veras
15 G
39 G
16.3 IP
42 IP
Total
171 G
440 G
204.3 IP
527 IP

Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken



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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.


Wednesday, December 19, 2007

More Early Projected Standings - CAIRO and Diamond Mind

Since the Hot Stove is quiet and I really don't have any interest in the Mitchell Report. here's another shot at some early projected standings. This time I used my CAIRO projections with Diamond Mind Baseball and ran the season 100 times. It turns out a little differently than my earlier projections which I did just using a spreadsheet, but I expected that.

# of Seasons 100
AL East W L RF RA DIV WC
Bos07 97.0 65.0 879 716 50.0 30.3
NYA07 96.1 65.9 941 769 44.5 33.8
Tor07 87.1 74.9 804 741 5.5 13.8
Tam07 78.1 83.9 820 848 0.0 1.3
Bal07 69.1 92.9 785 912 0.0 0.0
AL Central W L RF RA DIV WC
Cle07 91.0 71.1 852 739 54.5 3.5
Det07 90.4 71.6 901 792 42.5 13.8
KC07 75.0 87.0 779 862 2.0 0.0
Min07 73.7 88.3 727 816 1.0 1.0
ChA07 67.6 94.4 753 894 0.0 0.0
AL West W L RF RA DIV WC
LAA07 89.0 73.0 814 730 78.5 1.0
Oak07 78.2 83.8 808 838 9.0 1.0
Sea07 76.5 85.5 744 801 8.5 0.3
Tex07 75.1 87.0 847 906 4.0 0.0
NL East W L RF RA DIV WC
NYN07 92.1 70.0 804 703 66.0 12.7
Atl07 84.3 77.7 765 737 21.5 14.8
Phi07 83.4 78.6 871 836 12.0 11.3
Was07 74.6 87.4 761 819 0.5 1.5
Flo07 69.6 92.4 720 827 0.0 1.0
NL Central W L RF RA DIV WC
Mil07 85.1 76.9 784 735 39.8 5.5
ChN07 84.1 77.9 791 758 26.2 9.3
Cin07 81.4 80.6 782 794 22.2 4.3
StL07 76.8 85.2 734 780 5.5 2.5
Hou07 74.4 87.7 750 804 6.3 1.3
Pit07 67.3 94.7 684 824 0.0 0.0
NL West W L RF RA DIV WC
Ari07 84.8 77.2 725 695 29.0 7.5
LAN07 84.2 77.8 755 738 30.5 5.3
Col07 83.3 78.7 820 798 18.5 9.8
SD07 82.0 80.0 733 707 15.0 8.5
SF07 78.9 83.1 714 729 7.0 4.5


W: Average wins
L: Average losses
RF: Runs for
RA: Runs allowed
DIV*: Division titles over 100 seasons
WC*: Wild cards over 100 seasons
*I don't break ties for Div or WC

I'm using preliminary depth charts and limiting players to realistic playing time on offense and on the pitching staffs, but even doing that the Yankee offense still looks like the class of baseball. Boston's still got the best pitching in the league, but CAIRO expects them to fall back a bit in that area so right now the AL East looks like a dead heat. I tend to think that's not really true and Boston's still a few wins better than the Yanks on paper, but I'll be interested to see what the other projection systems say as I build the Diamond Mind Disks for them over the next couple of months. This is still running off the 2007 schedule since I haven't found the full 2008 MLB schedule anywhere yet and it's still probably too early for these to be very meaningful, so don't think of these as anything more than a goof right now.

According to CAIRO, Tampa's made the biggest improvement in 2008, shoring up their defense and assuming that Iwamura moves to 2B and they bring up Evan Longoria in May which is what I am assuming here. Adding Matt Garza gives them a solid projected front three. LA of A looks like the biggest favorite of any division leader, and the NL West looks like it'll be a wild ride in 2008. The Mets seem to be projected too high to me, but that's what the numbers say right now.

Since it's the Christmas season, I am making my CAIRO projection disk available to anyone who has Diamond Mind version 9 and wants to mess around with it. You can download the zip file here.
To install it:
1) In Diamond Mind, create a new empty database
2) Go to transfer -> Install League Database
3) Find the zip file wherever you saved it

If anyone grabs it and sees anything that looks wrong or has any questions, ask away.
--Posted at 8:53 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (1097)



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