Wednesday, December 19, 2007
More Early Projected Standings - CAIRO and Diamond Mind
Since the Hot Stove is quiet and I really don't have any interest in the Mitchell Report. here's another shot at some early projected standings. This time I used my CAIRO projections with Diamond Mind Baseball and ran the season 100 times. It turns out a little differently than my earlier projections which I did just using a spreadsheet, but I expected that.| # of Seasons | 100 | |||||
| AL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| Bos07 | 97.0 | 65.0 | 879 | 716 | 50.0 | 30.3 |
| NYA07 | 96.1 | 65.9 | 941 | 769 | 44.5 | 33.8 |
| Tor07 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 804 | 741 | 5.5 | 13.8 |
| Tam07 | 78.1 | 83.9 | 820 | 848 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| Bal07 | 69.1 | 92.9 | 785 | 912 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| AL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| Cle07 | 91.0 | 71.1 | 852 | 739 | 54.5 | 3.5 |
| Det07 | 90.4 | 71.6 | 901 | 792 | 42.5 | 13.8 |
| KC07 | 75.0 | 87.0 | 779 | 862 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Min07 | 73.7 | 88.3 | 727 | 816 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| ChA07 | 67.6 | 94.4 | 753 | 894 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| AL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| LAA07 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 814 | 730 | 78.5 | 1.0 |
| Oak07 | 78.2 | 83.8 | 808 | 838 | 9.0 | 1.0 |
| Sea07 | 76.5 | 85.5 | 744 | 801 | 8.5 | 0.3 |
| Tex07 | 75.1 | 87.0 | 847 | 906 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| NL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| NYN07 | 92.1 | 70.0 | 804 | 703 | 66.0 | 12.7 |
| Atl07 | 84.3 | 77.7 | 765 | 737 | 21.5 | 14.8 |
| Phi07 | 83.4 | 78.6 | 871 | 836 | 12.0 | 11.3 |
| Was07 | 74.6 | 87.4 | 761 | 819 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Flo07 | 69.6 | 92.4 | 720 | 827 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| NL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| Mil07 | 85.1 | 76.9 | 784 | 735 | 39.8 | 5.5 |
| ChN07 | 84.1 | 77.9 | 791 | 758 | 26.2 | 9.3 |
| Cin07 | 81.4 | 80.6 | 782 | 794 | 22.2 | 4.3 |
| StL07 | 76.8 | 85.2 | 734 | 780 | 5.5 | 2.5 |
| Hou07 | 74.4 | 87.7 | 750 | 804 | 6.3 | 1.3 |
| Pit07 | 67.3 | 94.7 | 684 | 824 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC |
| Ari07 | 84.8 | 77.2 | 725 | 695 | 29.0 | 7.5 |
| LAN07 | 84.2 | 77.8 | 755 | 738 | 30.5 | 5.3 |
| Col07 | 83.3 | 78.7 | 820 | 798 | 18.5 | 9.8 |
| SD07 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 733 | 707 | 15.0 | 8.5 |
| SF07 | 78.9 | 83.1 | 714 | 729 | 7.0 | 4.5 |
W: Average wins
L: Average losses
RF: Runs for
RA: Runs allowed
DIV*: Division titles over 100 seasons
WC*: Wild cards over 100 seasons
*I don't break ties for Div or WC
I'm using preliminary depth charts and limiting players to realistic playing time on offense and on the pitching staffs, but even doing that the Yankee offense still looks like the class of baseball. Boston's still got the best pitching in the league, but CAIRO expects them to fall back a bit in that area so right now the AL East looks like a dead heat. I tend to think that's not really true and Boston's still a few wins better than the Yanks on paper, but I'll be interested to see what the other projection systems say as I build the Diamond Mind Disks for them over the next couple of months. This is still running off the 2007 schedule since I haven't found the full 2008 MLB schedule anywhere yet and it's still probably too early for these to be very meaningful, so don't think of these as anything more than a goof right now.
According to CAIRO, Tampa's made the biggest improvement in 2008, shoring up their defense and assuming that Iwamura moves to 2B and they bring up Evan Longoria in May which is what I am assuming here. Adding Matt Garza gives them a solid projected front three. LA of A looks like the biggest favorite of any division leader, and the NL West looks like it'll be a wild ride in 2008. The Mets seem to be projected too high to me, but that's what the numbers say right now.
Since it's the Christmas season, I am making my CAIRO projection disk available to anyone who has Diamond Mind version 9 and wants to mess around with it. You can download the zip file here.
To install it:
1) In Diamond Mind, create a new empty database
2) Go to transfer -> Install League Database
3) Find the zip file wherever you saved it
If anyone grabs it and sees anything that looks wrong or has any questions, ask away.
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