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Thursday, August 21, 2008

MLB’s Biggest Over and Under Performers for 2008

As requested, here's a look at the players who have deviated furthest from their projections so far this season. I cut off PAs at a minimum of 200, and am only listing players who are at least 10% better or 10% worse than their originally projected wOBA.

The pre-season projections I am using for comparision are a composite of the following

CHONE by Sean Smith.

Marcel by Tango Tiger.

PECOTA by Nate Silver
ZiPS by Dan Szymborski.

CAIRO my own projection system which I created new for 2008.

Player PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP wOBA Prj wOBA Diff
Span,Denard 217 192 36 61 11 5 2 21 25 26 0 .366 .279 31.4%
Bradley,Milton 404 328 66 103 27 0 20 63 69 93 7 .422 .327 29.0%
Aviles,Mike 278 266 41 85 21 2 7 32 11 42 1 .348 .272 28.0%
Dewitt,Blake 308 280 31 72 11 2 5 35 26 51 2 .301 .240 25.6%
Vazquez,Ramon 307 273 44 84 17 3 6 39 34 59 0 .360 .291 23.4%
Quentin,Carlos 520 443 90 131 23 1 35 97 57 75 20 .403 .329 22.5%
Nady,Xavier 448 408 62 133 31 1 20 75 31 75 9 .386 .320 20.7%
Erstad,Darin 244 232 35 69 14 0 2 25 11 44 1 .309 .258 19.7%
Casilla,Alexi 260 243 38 76 15 0 4 39 16 25 1 .336 .281 19.4%
Ludwick,Ryan 473 418 83 127 28 3 31 93 50 108 5 .398 .333 19.4%
Aybar,Erick 298 281 43 79 13 4 3 30 13 38 4 .305 .259 17.8%
Theriot,Ryan 517 456 66 144 17 3 1 33 58 43 3 .347 .296 17.4%
Ankiel,Rick 421 378 61 104 21 2 23 63 38 91 5 .356 .304 17.3%
Matsui,Kaz 371 337 49 96 23 3 5 28 34 49 0 .328 .282 16.5%
Coste,Chris 234 217 21 59 15 0 8 28 11 41 6 .323 .278 16.3%
Infante,Omar 231 213 28 65 17 3 3 28 18 29 0 .343 .295 16.3%
Drew,J.D. 446 364 78 102 23 4 19 64 78 79 4 .391 .336 16.1%
Fontenot,Mike 217 190 35 55 17 1 8 31 25 39 2 .369 .318 16.1%
Olivo,Miguel 244 234 22 63 18 0 11 34 7 60 3 .317 .274 15.5%
Schumaker,Skip 473 432 70 132 19 4 8 41 39 49 2 .341 .296 15.3%
Spilborghs,Ryan 221 185 32 58 12 2 6 33 35 34 1 .393 .342 15.1%
Punto,Nick 227 207 26 57 14 3 2 23 20 37 0 .317 .278 14.0%
Inglett,Joe 263 242 29 72 9 7 2 27 18 31 3 .332 .291 14.0%
Tatis,Fernando 244 221 28 65 11 1 10 37 21 51 2 .355 .312 13.8%
Wigginton,Ty 322 287 41 87 20 1 16 43 28 49 7 .380 .335 13.3%
Gerut,Jody 319 292 41 87 14 2 12 37 27 46 0 .351 .311 13.0%
Durham,Ray 361 316 53 90 29 0 4 38 43 62 2 .341 .303 12.6%
Huff,Aubrey 526 477 81 144 37 2 27 87 47 71 2 .375 .333 12.6%
Miles,Aaron 324 306 37 95 12 1 3 26 18 27 0 .321 .286 12.4%
Molina,Yadier 414 385 31 116 17 0 5 47 28 28 1 .322 .287 12.3%
McLouth,Nate 541 480 87 132 39 3 22 75 51 71 10 .354 .317 12.0%
Snyder,Chris 305 257 35 64 18 1 12 55 45 74 3 .350 .313 11.8%
Ramirez,Alexei 356 345 45 107 19 1 13 52 10 48 1 .337 .302 11.5%
Kinsler,Ian 569 518 102 165 41 4 18 71 45 67 6 .372 .334 11.4%
Kapler,Gabe 218 208 33 62 14 2 7 33 9 34 1 .335 .301 11.4%
Johnson,Reed 289 262 45 82 20 0 6 45 16 48 11 .356 .320 11.2%
Guzman,Cristian 484 462 60 136 28 3 5 34 18 44 4 .310 .280 11.0%
Belliard,Ronnie 280 243 31 65 18 0 10 38 34 47 3 .349 .315 10.9%
Upton,Justin 326 277 43 67 12 4 11 31 45 97 4 .337 .304 10.8%
Navarro,Dioner 360 330 30 96 19 0 6 43 27 41 3 .326 .295 10.3%
Lind,Adam 201 189 30 57 11 4 9 35 10 29 2 .359 .326 10.1%
Holliday,Matt 493 427 89 147 32 2 24 73 61 79 5 .423 .384 10.1%
Youkilis,Kevin 489 437 79 140 33 4 24 87 43 86 9 .395 .359 10.0%
Milledge,Lastings 433 395 46 103 19 1 12 45 28 68 10 .312 .347 -10.0%
Ortiz,David 343 293 51 78 16 0 17 64 49 53 1 .362 .403 -10.0%
Swisher,Nick 481 404 73 95 17 1 19 59 73 99 4 .336 .373 -10.1%
Lopez,Felipe 400 361 42 88 20 2 2 26 36 63 3 .286 .318 -10.2%
Cabrera,Miguel 529 480 62 140 28 2 25 96 47 93 2 .359 .400 -10.2%
Tejada,Miguel 517 491 77 139 27 2 12 53 22 57 4 .311 .347 -10.3%
Payton,Jay 281 265 31 63 9 2 6 37 15 43 1 .272 .303 -10.4%
Johnson,Kelly 455 411 63 109 29 2 9 48 43 90 1 .318 .355 -10.5%
Jones,Adam 424 398 53 111 17 6 7 50 19 92 7 .310 .347 -10.5%
Teahen,Mark 481 438 51 108 21 4 10 40 41 99 2 .298 .333 -10.6%
Gload,Ross 359 334 42 90 14 1 3 33 22 31 3 .293 .329 -10.9%
Zimmerman,Ryan 311 289 29 77 16 1 8 34 19 50 3 .309 .350 -11.7%
Crawford,Carl 475 443 69 121 12 10 8 57 30 60 2 .308 .349 -11.7%
Varitek,Jason 383 339 28 74 18 0 10 35 41 99 3 .289 .328 -11.9%
Pence,Hunter 506 477 62 125 27 3 17 61 28 98 1 .307 .349 -12.1%
Hall,Bill 367 333 41 75 19 0 14 46 31 99 3 .295 .336 -12.3%
Matthews Jr.,Gary 380 339 38 76 11 2 7 36 37 85 4 .283 .323 -12.4%
Gathright,Joey 266 247 36 62 2 1 0 17 16 36 3 .265 .304 -12.9%
Keppinger,Jeff 357 333 30 88 15 2 3 30 22 18 2 .290 .334 -13.4%
Jenkins,Geoff 307 282 27 68 14 0 9 29 24 65 1 .293 .339 -13.7%
Tulowitzki,Troy 279 251 31 60 17 0 4 27 26 39 2 .291 .338 -13.7%
Butler,Billy 366 338 28 90 16 0 7 41 28 47 0 .302 .350 -13.8%
Hannahan,Jack 407 361 38 80 24 0 5 37 44 104 2 .282 .328 -14.0%
Francoeur,Jeff 505 466 53 107 24 2 10 55 31 87 8 .276 .321 -14.1%
Cano,Robinson 488 461 52 122 24 3 10 55 23 41 4 .296 .346 -14.4%
Ruiz,Carlos 283 246 35 54 9 0 2 21 33 36 4 .279 .326 -14.5%
Cabrera,Melky 433 401 39 97 12 1 8 36 29 56 3 .278 .325 -14.5%
Iguchi,Tadahito 301 275 27 67 13 1 2 23 26 63 0 .279 .327 -14.5%
Gutierrez,Franklin 319 300 34 70 20 2 6 28 15 67 4 .274 .320 -14.6%
Lamb,Mike 250 233 20 55 12 3 1 32 17 31 0 .267 .315 -15.4%
Kearns,Austin 338 298 35 65 9 0 6 30 32 61 8 .280 .332 -15.8%
Greene,Khalil 416 389 30 83 15 2 10 35 22 100 5 .257 .306 -16.0%
Martinez,Victor 215 198 17 55 11 0 0 21 16 23 1 .298 .362 -17.5%
Sanchez,Freddy 471 456 52 115 19 0 8 46 12 54 3 .266 .324 -17.8%
Vidro,Jose 326 308 28 72 11 0 7 45 18 36 0 .264 .326 -19.0%
Byrnes,Eric 224 206 28 43 13 1 6 23 16 36 2 .269 .332 -19.1%
Patterson,Corey 269 257 33 50 12 1 8 21 11 35 1 .236 .293 -19.3%
Johjima,Kenji 316 297 22 64 16 0 4 25 13 27 6 .248 .308 -19.4%
Howard,Ryan 537 473 72 110 15 2 33 104 61 163 3 .331 .414 -20.2%
Barton,Daric 385 338 39 70 11 3 5 32 46 84 1 .273 .346 -21.1%
Vizquel,Omar 214 196 17 36 6 0 0 13 18 23 0 .218 .280 -22.2%
Jones,Andruw 233 205 21 33 8 1 3 14 27 74 1 .235 .349 -32.7%
Pena,Tony 203 198 19 32 4 1 1 10 5 43 0 .171 .280 -39.1%


wOBA: Weighted on base average, which is basically a rate version of linear weights, scaled to OBP. So, a wOBA of .300 is bad, a wOBA of .330 is around average, .400 is great, etc., wOBA is easily converted to runs using the formula PA x wOBA / 1.15.

Prj wOBA: Projected wOBA entering 2008.

Diff: wOBA/Prj WoBA - 1.

Update: Added a histogram with the data for all players who've had 100 PA this season as requested by DaPul


--Posted at 8:32 am by SG / 68 Comments | - (184)


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