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Way back in the 20th century, Bill James wrote the first essential book about baseball managers. Chris Jaffe has just written the second.
- Rob Neyer, ESPN.com

From now on, whenever I have a question about a manager, Jaffe's book will be the first and last one I reach for.
- Sean Forman, Baseball-Reference.com

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John Brattain Memorial Fund

The Hardball Times has set up a memorial fund for John Brattain's family. He left behind a wife and two teenage daughters.

Four years ago, I found from personal experience how generous the online community can be to its own in their hour of need. I am now literally begging you to be even more generous than you were to me.


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Player

 Current Projected
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"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken

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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

MLB Monte Carlo Playoff Odds As Of August 4, 2009

Last Upate 8/5/2009
Iterations 10,000
Team W 1 Std RS RA TmStr Div WC PL Max Min
Dodgers 99.3 94-105 810 688 .595 91.1% 7.2% 98.3% 112 86
Angels 95.9 90-102 851 770 .567 88.8% 2.2% 91.0% 112 81
Phillies 93.5 88-99 836 762 .583 87.8% 1.5% 89.3% 109 78
Yankees 95.9 90-102 874 748 .587 53.3% 33.3% 86.6% 110 80
Red Sox 95.1 89-101 843 703 .597 42.0% 39.4% 81.4% 108 80
Cardinals 89.3 84-95 746 701 .543 49.4% 8.3% 57.6% 103 73
Tigers 85.8 80-92 765 749 .534 56.3% 0.2% 56.4% 101 69
Cubs 89.0 83-95 769 687 .550 47.0% 6.6% 53.6% 103 73
Rockies 89.3 84-95 802 766 .534 5.0% 38.3% 43.2% 102 74
Giants 88.5 83-94 679 655 .543 4.0% 30.9% 34.9% 106 74
Twins 82.9 77-89 772 776 .510 25.7% 0.2% 25.9% 97 68
Rays 88.8 83-94 820 707 .561 4.7% 17.1% 21.8% 104 74
White Sox 82.1 76-88 752 779 .505 17.9% 0.1% 18.1% 96 68
Rangers 87.0 81-93 774 797 .515 9.9% 6.1% 15.9% 106 73
Marlins 84.7 79-90 736 782 .521 7.7% 4.5% 12.2% 99 71
Braves 83.1 77-89 746 700 .521 4.4% 1.9% 6.3% 97 69
Brewers 80.3 75-86 768 790 .489 3.0% 0.5% 3.5% 93 64
Mariners 82.8 77-88 670 718 .499 1.4% 1.4% 2.8% 98 67
Astros 77.9 72-84 697 777 .464 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 93 60
Mets 76.2 71-82 766 757 .474 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 92 62
Blue Jays 76.9 71-83 800 800 .500 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 92 63
Indians 69.7 64-75 816 817 .456 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 86 54
Pirates 69.5 64-75 700 781 .441 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86 57
Orioles 68.0 62-74 769 851 .442 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 83 55
Royals 63.0 57-69 678 807 .410 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 77 50
Athletics 71.9 66-78 746 770 .465 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88 58
Nationals 55.4 50-61 744 865 .383 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 71 40
Reds 70.1 64-76 690 777 .443 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84 56
Diamondbacks 73.7 68-79 732 740 .481 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88 60
Padres 64.9 59-71 659 794 .400 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 81 51


W: Projected wins
1 Std: Win range within one standard deviation (Standard deviation is set to .035 on winning percentage over remaining games)
RS: Projected runs scored
RA: Projected runs allowed
TmStr: Team strength (estimated using 1/3 YTD WPCT, 1/3 YTD Pythagenpat, 1/3 2009 Projection). Team strength is also adjusted to reflect mid-season trades.
Div: Division title percentage
WC: Wild card percentage
PL: Div + WC
Max: High wins
Min: Low wins

As I mentioned in this previous post, these playoff odds are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulator that I downloaded from xlssports.com. I've tweaked it to work mid-season, and to allow me greater latitude when determining team strength, but the basic framework is the same. The odds are generally right around the average of Baseball Prospectus's various playoff odds reports. Simulations were run 10,000 times.

Teams are sorted in decreasing likelihood of making the postseason.
--Posted at 8:14 am by SG / 71 Comments | - (138)


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