Sunday, August 30, 2009
MLB Monte Carlo Playoff Odds As Of August 30, 2009
It's been about two weeks since I last posted these, so here's an update through today's games (sans Atlanta vs. Philadelphia).| Last Upate | 8/30/2009 | ||||||||||
| Iterations | 10,000 | ||||||||||
| Team | W | 1 Std | RS | RA | TmStr | Div | WC | PL | Max | Min | G/L |
| Yankees | 101.0 | 95-107 | 887 | 737 | .604 | 94.3% | 5.5% | 99.8% | 111 | 90 | 0.5% |
| Cardinals | 94.2 | 89-100 | 745 | 685 | .564 | 99.4% | 0.2% | 99.6% | 104 | 86 | 14.8% |
| Dodgers | 97.2 | 92-103 | 793 | 678 | .585 | 94.8% | 4.3% | 99.1% | 105 | 87 | 4.0% |
| Phillies | 95.5 | 90-101 | 830 | 744 | .594 | 98.0% | 1.1% | 99.1% | 104 | 86 | 8.9% |
| Angels | 95.1 | 89-101 | 851 | 776 | .561 | 91.2% | 1.4% | 92.6% | 104 | 86 | -1.2% |
| Red Sox | 94.8 | 89-101 | 849 | 716 | .592 | 5.7% | 85.1% | 90.8% | 104 | 86 | 21.0% |
| Tigers | 87.5 | 82-93 | 762 | 748 | .537 | 89.5% | 0.0% | 89.5% | 99 | 79 | 15.4% |
| Rockies | 89.2 | 84-95 | 803 | 769 | .531 | 2.9% | 44.3% | 47.2% | 98 | 80 | 0.2% |
| Giants | 88.4 | 83-94 | 684 | 669 | .538 | 2.4% | 33.2% | 35.6% | 97 | 80 | 13.3% |
| Rangers | 88.9 | 83-95 | 779 | 791 | .518 | 8.7% | 4.3% | 13.0% | 99 | 80 | -11.5% |
| Braves | 86.2 | 81-92 | 762 | 692 | .539 | 1.7% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 96 | 78 | -4.6% |
| Twins | 81.6 | 76-87 | 776 | 781 | .509 | 8.5% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 92 | 73 | 0.1% |
| Marlins | 84.6 | 79-90 | 750 | 794 | .523 | 0.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 93 | 76 | -14.8% |
| Rays | 87.3 | 82-93 | 814 | 714 | .553 | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 95 | 79 | -7.6% |
| Cubs | 83.6 | 78-89 | 768 | 703 | .530 | 0.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 92 | 74 | -19.8% |
| White Sox | 79.0 | 73-85 | 746 | 788 | .490 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 89 | 69 | -15.9% |
| Indians | 73.1 | 67-79 | 808 | 802 | .469 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 84 | 66 | 0.1% |
| Mariners | 82.9 | 77-89 | 680 | 722 | .502 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 90 | 73 | -0.9% |
| Astros | 76.0 | 70-82 | 700 | 793 | .452 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 85 | 66 | 0.0% |
| Athletics | 72.0 | 66-78 | 742 | 766 | .467 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 81 | 62 | 0.0% |
| Blue Jays | 73.8 | 68-79 | 800 | 800 | .500 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 83 | 65 | -0.1% |
| Brewers | 78.4 | 73-84 | 783 | 794 | .493 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88 | 69 | -2.0% |
| Diamondbacks | 73.2 | 68-79 | 737 | 743 | .482 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 83 | 65 | 0.0% |
| Mets | 73.1 | 67-79 | 757 | 761 | .462 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 82 | 63 | 0.0% |
| Nationals | 57.5 | 52-63 | 751 | 862 | .395 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 68 | 49 | 0.0% |
| Orioles | 66.2 | 61-72 | 768 | 849 | .438 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 75 | 57 | 0.0% |
| Padres | 68.3 | 63-74 | 672 | 794 | .412 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 76 | 59 | 0.0% |
| Pirates | 67.5 | 62-73 | 696 | 794 | .430 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 78 | 59 | 0.0% |
| Reds | 71.5 | 66-77 | 690 | 769 | .449 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 79 | 62 | 0.0% |
| Royals | 62.1 | 56-68 | 694 | 817 | .412 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 71 | 53 | 0.0% |
W: Projected wins
1 Std: Win range within one standard deviation
RS: Projected runs scored
RA: Projected runs allowed
TmStr: Team strength (estimated using 1/3 YTD WPCT, 1/3 YTD Pythagenpat, 1/3 2009 Projection)
Div: Division title percentage
WC: Wild card percentage
PL: Div + WC
G/L: Gain/loss. Current playoff percentage minus playoff percentage on August 15. Greater than zero means improved playoff odds, less than zero means playoff odds have dropped.
The Yankees were already in very good shape for making the playoffs, but their odds moved up by a touch. The Monte Carlo simulations see the Yankees floor as 90 wins now, with a high of 111. That'd be sweet.
The biggest gainer over the last two weeks has been the Red Sox actually, who are playing well aside from when they play the Yankees. Since August 16, Boston is 9-2 and has scored 69 runs while allowing 44 against everyone but the Yankees. Against the Yankees, they went 1-2 and scored 29 runs while allowing 29. Overall, they're 10-4 since August 15. Their chances also have gone up thanks to the Rays going 8-5 and the Rangers going 7-7 (despite taking 2 of 3 from Boston).
Other big gainers are the Tigers who've moved from an 86.5 win pace to an 87.5 win pace while the White Sox went from an 81.7 win pace to a 79.0 win pace and saw their playoff chances drop by around 16%.. The Twins have now moved past the White Sox as the second most likely team to take the AL Central, although the odds are against them.
Not much really changed in the AL West, with the Angels continuing to run away with the division.
Over in the JV league, the Cardinals and Giants were the biggest gainers of the last two weeks. The Cardinals now have the best odds of any team to take their division. The NL wild card race is shaping up as an interesting one with less than one game separating the Giants and Rockies according to these simulations after the Giants swept Colorado this weekend. They have three more games against each other in mid-September. Meanwhile, the Marlins and Cubs have essentially dropped out of playoff contention at this point,
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