Friday, May 2, 2008
MLB Actual Standings vs Projected Standings as of May 1,2008
I don't feel about writing about last night's 8-4 loss to the Tigers, so here's a little comparison of how MLB is shaping up so far this season compared to the preseason projections I ran. The first group of columns if or actual YTD performance, the second set is for the average of the projection systems I ran in the post linked above, and then the last set are the differences between the two. So in the case the Yankees, they were projected to win 18 of 30 games and score 171 runs while allowing 142. Instead they've won 4 fewer games and scored 42 fewer runs than expected.This doesn't factor in difficulty of schedule which may impact some teams more than others, I am strictly multiplying overall 162 game projections time actual games played. That shouldn't be a huge impact, but it should be considered.
| American League | Actual | Projected | Diff | |||||||||||
| EAST | W | L | RS | RA | W | L | RS | RA | W | L | RS | RA | ||
| Tampa Bay | 16 | 12 | 134 | 111 | 14 | 14 | 141 | 138 | 2 | -2 | -7 | -27 | ||
| Boston | 17 | 13 | 136 | 133 | 17 | 13 | 159 | 137 | 0 | 0 | -23 | -4 | ||
| Baltimore | 15 | 13 | 118 | 126 | 12 | 16 | 130 | 158 | 3 | -3 | -12 | -32 | ||
| NY Yankees | 14 | 16 | 129 | 141 | 18 | 12 | 171 | 142 | -4 | 4 | -42 | -1 | ||
| Toronto | 12 | 17 | 119 | 112 | 15 | 14 | 139 | 131 | -3 | 3 | -20 | -19 | ||
| CENTRAL | W | L | RS | RA | ||||||||||
| Chicago Sox | 14 | 12 | 131 | 105 | 12 | 14 | 126 | 139 | 2 | -2 | 5 | -34 | ||
| Cleveland | 14 | 15 | 130 | 122 | 16 | 13 | 150 | 132 | -2 | 2 | -20 | -10 | ||
| Detroit | 14 | 15 | 150 | 152 | 16 | 13 | 154 | 136 | -2 | 2 | -4 | 16 | ||
| Minnesota | 13 | 14 | 102 | 122 | 13 | 14 | 121 | 131 | 0 | 0 | -19 | -9 | ||
| Kansas City | 12 | 16 | 101 | 131 | 13 | 15 | 131 | 146 | -1 | 1 | -30 | -15 | ||
| WEST | W | L | RS | RA | ||||||||||
| LA Angels | 18 | 12 | 148 | 144 | 16 | 14 | 148 | 136 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 8 | ||
| Oakland | 18 | 12 | 150 | 110 | 15 | 15 | 141 | 143 | 3 | -3 | 9 | -33 | ||
| Seattle | 13 | 16 | 129 | 122 | 14 | 15 | 128 | 137 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -15 | ||
| Texas | 11 | 18 | 132 | 178 | 13 | 16 | 146 | 160 | -2 | 2 | -14 | 19 | ||
| National League | ||||||||||||||
| EAST | W | L | RS | RA | W | L | RS | RA | W | L | RS | RA | ||
| Philadelphia | 16 | 13 | 136 | 124 | 15 | 14 | 156 | 145 | 1 | -1 | -20 | -21 | ||
| NY Mets | 14 | 12 | 119 | 118 | 15 | 11 | 134 | 113 | -1 | 1 | -15 | 5 | ||
| Florida | 15 | 13 | 124 | 142 | 12 | 16 | 129 | 151 | 3 | -3 | -5 | -9 | ||
| Atlanta | 12 | 15 | 129 | 107 | 15 | 12 | 137 | 127 | -3 | 3 | -8 | -20 | ||
| Washington | 12 | 17 | 107 | 136 | 13 | 16 | 137 | 156 | -1 | 1 | -30 | -20 | ||
| CENTRAL | W | L | RS | RA | ||||||||||
| St. Louis | 18 | 11 | 135 | 104 | 14 | 15 | 136 | 140 | 4 | -4 | -1 | -36 | ||
| Chicago Cubs | 17 | 11 | 174 | 124 | 15 | 13 | 143 | 130 | 2 | -2 | 31 | -6 | ||
| Milwaukee | 16 | 12 | 130 | 131 | 15 | 13 | 142 | 134 | 1 | -1 | -12 | -3 | ||
| Houston | 13 | 16 | 131 | 132 | 13 | 16 | 136 | 148 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -16 | ||
| Cincinnati | 12 | 17 | 124 | 139 | 14 | 15 | 139 | 148 | -2 | 2 | -15 | -9 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 11 | 17 | 130 | 163 | 12 | 16 | 124 | 145 | -1 | 1 | 6 | 18 | ||
| WEST | W | L | RS | RA | ||||||||||
| Arizona | 20 | 8 | 165 | 109 | 15 | 14 | 131 | 127 | 5 | -6 | 34 | -18 | ||
| LA Dodgers | 15 | 13 | 142 | 110 | 15 | 13 | 132 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -17 | ||
| San Francisco | 13 | 16 | 93 | 131 | 13 | 16 | 122 | 135 | 0 | 0 | -29 | -4 | ||
| Colorado | 11 | 17 | 114 | 144 | 14 | 14 | 143 | 140 | -3 | 3 | -29 | 4 | ||
| San Diego | 11 | 18 | 94 | 133 | 15 | 14 | 132 | 126 | -4 | 4 | -38 | 7 |
So like I said above, the Yankees have been 4 wins worse than projected so far. What's interesting is that despite all the noise/blame being assigned to the young pitching staff, their offense is the real problem. They allowed right around the same number of runs as they projected to, but they scored 42 fewer, which matches up with the 4 win shortfall.
The Yankees are tied with San Diego for the dubious honor of biggest disappointments so far. The Diamondbacks are the biggest positive surprise. Another interesting thing to note is that scoring is down about 7.3% from the projections. It's probably more early statistical noise than anything.
I'm going to be on vacation next week so no posts from me most likely, although I may pipe in if something big happens. Sean and Jonathan will cover for me and hopefully bring better luck than I have been bringing.
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