Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Mark Teixeira
| YEAR | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| 2004 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 |
| 2005 | 43.2 | -4.0 | 3.9 |
| 2006 | 19.1 | -5.0 | 1.4 |
| 2007 | 10.6 | -6.0 | 0.5 |
| 2008 | 22.0 | -12.0 | 1.0 |
| Avg | 20.6 | -4.6 | 1.6 |
| Avg w/o 2005 | 14.9 | -4.8 | 1.0 |
That's what the Yankees have gotten out of first base over the last five years. They've basically been below average in every season but
By my CAIRO projections, Teixeira was the second best available free agent in terms of projected wins above replacement for 2009(behind C.C. Sabathia). So let's take a look at what he brings the Yankees...
For information about the projections being used and the acronyms in the tables below, check this post.
2008
Teixeira started the season as Atlanta's 1B after coming over in a 2007 trade, and projected to be pretty good.
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA | |
| 2008 chone | 653 | 560 | 104 | 162 | 33 | 2 | 33 | 106 | 1 | 1 | 86 | 117 | 7 | .289 | .391 | .532 | 111 | 111 | 36 | .382 |
| 2008 marcel | 560 | 486 | 81 | 143 | 33 | 2 | 26 | 95 | 2 | 0 | 65 | 101 | 6 | .294 | .382 | .531 | 95 | 110 | 35 | .376 |
| 2008 pecota | 632 | 535 | 102 | 158 | 34 | 2 | 32 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 85 | 110 | 7 | .295 | .394 | .547 | 111 | 114 | 39 | .386 |
| 2008 zips | 653 | 568 | 93 | 168 | 32 | 2 | 31 | 116 | 2 | 0 | 81 | 119 | 4 | .296 | .387 | .523 | 110 | 109 | 34 | .378 |
| 2008 cairo | 653 | 568 | 93 | 168 | 32 | 2 | 31 | 116 | 2 | 0 | 81 | 119 | 4 | .296 | .387 | .523 | 110 | 109 | 34 | .378 |
| 2008 average | 630 | 545 | 95 | 160 | 33 | 2 | 31 | 108 | 2 | 0 | 80 | 114 | 5 | .294 | .390 | .531 | 107 | 111 | 36 | .381 |
| 2008 actual | 685 | 574 | 102 | 177 | 41 | 0 | 33 | 121 | 2 | 0 | 97 | 93 | 7 | .308 | .410 | .552 | 125 | 118 | 43 | .396 |
| difference | 9% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 19% | -100% | 2% | 7% | -9% | -100% | 15% | -22% | 21% | .014 | .020 | .021 | 17 | 7 | 7 | .015 |
The projection systems were generally in agreement, that Teixeria would be around a .295/.390/.531, 36 runs above replacement player. However, Texeira ended up better than that overall, and if you factor in the league switch that should have suppressed his second-half numbers slightly, he was probably close to a win better than projected offensively. He hit doubles at a rate of 19% better than expected, increased his walk rate by about 15%, and cut his strikeout rate by 22%. The walk rate and K rate changes are interesting and could point to a change in approach that served him well, or they could just be random fluctuation.
Texiera certainly had a fine 2008 season, his best season according to OPS+. So what do we have to look forward to in 2009?
Offense
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA | |
| 2009 chone | 645 | 559 | 93 | 160 | 33 | 1 | 32 | 108 | 2 | 0 | 81 | 109 | 5 | .286 | .381 | .521 | 107 | 108 | 33 | .374 |
| 2009 marcel | 600 | 513 | 84 | 150 | 35 | 1 | 27 | 97 | 2 | 0 | 76 | 101 | 10 | .292 | .393 | .522 | 102 | 110 | 36 | .381 |
| 2009 pecota | 647 | 555 | 94 | 159 | 35 | 1 | 28 | 102 | 2 | 0 | 80 | 103 | 6 | .287 | .379 | .506 | 104 | 104 | 30 | .367 |
| 2009 tht | 601 | 520 | 82 | 149 | 34 | 0 | 28 | 95 | 6 | 1 | 75 | 100 | 6 | .287 | .383 | .513 | 100 | 108 | 33 | .373 |
| 2009 zips | 635 | 545 | 91 | 159 | 37 | 1 | 28 | 103 | 7 | 2 | 83 | 103 | 7 | .292 | .392 | .517 | 107 | 110 | 35 | .379 |
| 2009 cairo | 666 | 571 | 98 | 166 | 38 | 1 | 32 | 111 | 2 | 0 | 85 | 110 | 7 | .291 | .387 | .528 | 113 | 110 | 35 | .378 |
| 2009 average | 632 | 545 | 91 | 157 | 35 | 1 | 29 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 80 | 105 | 7 | .289 | .386 | .518 | 106 | 109 | 34 | .376 |
Teixeira's projections for 2009 are basically the same as his 2008 projections. Ostensibly this is because the spike in his 2008 performance is mitigated by his moving a year further out from an average player's peak. The projections basically see him as being worth somewhere around 3 to 3.5 wins above a replacement level 1B offensively. That's a win better than what the Yankees got out of first base offensively, so if some moron tells you that "Teixeira just replaces Giambi", you can tell them they are a moron.
And here are Teixeira's range of CAIRO projections.
| cairo percentiles | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA |
| 80% | 680 | 582 | 110 | 183 | 45 | 2 | 38 | 124 | 3 | 0 | 96 | 102 | 9 | .314 | .424 | .595 | 135 | 129 | 55 | .418 |
| 65% | 673 | 576 | 104 | 174 | 41 | 2 | 35 | 117 | 2 | 0 | 91 | 106 | 8 | .303 | .406 | .562 | 124 | 120 | 45 | .398 |
| baseline | 666 | 571 | 98 | 166 | 38 | 1 | 32 | 111 | 2 | 0 | 85 | 110 | 7 | .291 | .387 | .528 | 113 | 110 | 35 | .378 |
| 35% | 633 | 542 | 89 | 152 | 33 | 1 | 27 | 100 | 1 | 0 | 76 | 110 | 5 | .280 | .369 | .495 | 98 | 100 | 26 | .358 |
| 20% | 580 | 496 | 77 | 133 | 28 | 0 | 23 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 105 | 4 | .269 | .350 | .462 | 81 | 91 | 16 | .338 |
He basically hit his 65% projection in 2008, so let's hope he can do it again.
Defense
One of the things that Teixeira also supposedly brings to the Yankees is a great glove. However, the statistics don't necessarily agree with the scouting reports on that. For non-catcher defense I am going to show both standard zone rating numbers as well as the newly available UZR data at Fangraphs.com.
Zone rating has been around since 1987 and it is a decimal from 0 to 1. Three individual scorers score every play at a position. If it's typically converted into an out at least 50% of the time, it's considered a fieldable chance. So zone rating just divides the fieldable chances that are converted into outs by all fieldable chances. I convert that to runs using a system developed by Chris Dial which was detailed in this post. I ran through an example of how the numbers are calculated in this post as well.
UZR stands for ultimate zone rating. It was designed by Mitchel Lichtman (b/k/a MGL) and his methodology is discussed in this blog entry, although he continues to refine it. It's generally considered the gold standard in defensive metrics. One thing that is a concern is that the UZR engine does show disparity in some defenders based on the input data being used (Stats Inc. Vs. Baseball Info Solutions). The Fangraphs numbers are based on the BIS data.
| Year | Age | Pos | GP | Inn | RS (ZR) | RS (UZR) | Avg (ZR/UZR) |
| 2005 | 25 | 1B | 155 | 1358 | 12 | -3 | 5 |
| 2006 | 26 | 1B | 159 | 1399 | -3 | -2 | -3 |
| 2007 | 27 | 1B | 128 | 1098 | -1 | -4 | -2 |
| 2008 | 28 | 1B | 153 | 1335 | 15 | 12 | 14 |
| 2009 | 29 | 1B | 149 | 1272 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
That doesn't really look like the supposedly great glove we keep hearing about, although it's worth noting that ZR and UZR don't capture a 1B's ability to scoop bad throws or to chase down foul popups, which are probably worth a few runs. He should at least be solidly average at 1B.
Baserunning
| Year | GA_OPPS | EQGAR | AA_OPPS | EQAAR | HA_OPPS | EQHAR | OA_OPPS | EQOAR | OPPS | EQBRR |
| 2007 | 17 | -0.1 | 38 | 0.2 | 28 | -1.1 | 203 | 1.0 | 286 | 0.1 |
| 2008 | 32 | -0.4 | 51 | 0.5 | 48 | -0.5 | 258 | 0.1 | 389 | 0.0 |
| 2009 Proj | 27 | -0.3 | 47 | 0.4 | 41 | -0.7 | 240 | 0.4 | 355 | 0.0 |
Teixeira's been an average baserunner the last two years and should be one again this year. That's good, since his infernal .400 OBP could clog the bases otherwise.
Value
Well, he got big bucks. Is he worth it?
| Category | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 34 | 3.4 |
| Defense | 3 | 0.3 |
| Baserunning | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 37 | 3.7 |
| 2009 Salary | $20,000,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $11,165,965 | ($8,834,035) |
| $3,500,000 | $13,026,959 | ($6,973,041) |
| $4,000,000 | $14,887,953 | ($5,112,047) |
| $4,500,000 | $16,748,948 | ($3,251,052) |
| $5,000,000 | $18,609,942 | ($1,390,058) |
| $5,500,000 | $20,470,936 | $470,936 |
| $6,000,000 | $22,331,930 | $2,331,930 |
He's probably worth it to the Yankees given the value of a marginal win. If he hits his 65% CAIRO instead of his average projection, he's worth another 11 runs/1 win.
Conclusion
Even though Teixeira seemed like a perfect fit for the Yankees, there were no indications they would pursue him. When they subsequently signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett it seemed like it would never happen. But it did, and the Yankees are better for it. I look forward to seeing him in pinstripes.
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